Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! today is December 29. The title of today's article is "Stayingly implementing the registration system in the entire market, pay attention to the intensification of market differentiation, and keep up with the pace of institutions to keep warm! 》
[All views, no basis for buying and selling, the stock market is risky, investment should be cautious]
1, [Message]
[We will focus on increasing the proportion of direct financing and steadily implementing the registration system in the entire market] will take the reform of the registration system and the delisting system as important means to strengthen the construction of basic systems. Adhere to the three principles of respecting the basic connotation of the registration system, learning from international best practices, embodying Chinese characteristics and the development stage, and steadily implementing the registration system throughout the market. Further open up diversified exit channels and strengthen survival of the fittest. Coordinate the promotion of key institutional innovation in the fields of issuance and underwriting, trading, continuous supervision, investor protection, and steadily promote institutional opening up.
[Foreign Market Review] Overnight, British stocks closed; US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 200 points, Nasdaq rose 0.74%, S&P rose 0.87%; anti-epidemic concept stocks fell sharply; Chinese new energy vehicle stocks generally fell. Specifically, on Monday, Eastern Time, the US stock market closed higher. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 204.10 points to 30403.97 points, an increase of 0.68%, the Nasdaq rose 94.69 points to 12899.42 points, an increase of 0.74%, and the S&P 500 rose 32.30 points to 3735.36 points, an increase of 0.87%. Commodity market: International gold prices rose and fell, almost defending the $1,880 integer mark. As of the close, the most active gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market, the price of gold futures in February 2021 fell 2.8 US dollars from the previous trading day on the 28th, closing at US$1,880.4 per ounce, a drop of 0.15%; the price of silver futures for delivery in March 2021 rose 0.631 US dollars, a gain of 26.539 per ounce, a gain of 2.44%. International oil prices fell, and the declines of US oil and Brent oil were around 1%. As of the close, New York's February crude oil futures closed down $0.61, or 1.26%, to $47.62 per barrel.
2, Market Review
1, Yesterday morning, the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fluctuated and fell back in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index received support around 3383 and rebounded! In the afternoon, the index rose and fell again, and the two markets closed in a mixed manner. Heavy stocks such as banks and insurance performed strongly. From the overall market perspective, the market was in a state of ice and fire. The stocks in the two markets have more declines and less rises, and the overall profit-making effect of the market is average, making money-making more difficult. Judging from yesterday's sectors, yesterday's winemaking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, coal, electricity, gas supply and heating sectors were strong! But other sectors performed mediocrely, and most sectors were in a green market! The recent market has been differentiated, half rising and half falling! There is a significant change in the market trend of this year, which is that the market is severely differentiated. Although the index rose by 800 points, half of the stocks were below 2700! This means that these stocks are not following the market! Therefore, in the future, we must choose from fundamentals, choose high-quality enterprises with large backgrounds, good industry fundamentals, and institutions gather together to keep warm!
2. Technically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes have recently received support above the 60-day line and then rebounded! As the index approaches the previous high pressure zone, the trading volume cannot be gradually increased! This has led to the index not rising recently and has not fallen sharply, but it is mainly fluctuating in the range! Currently, the stock index is mainly fluctuating between the 60 moving average and the 3450 range. Look at the direction of the future market? In the short term, look at the 3350-3340 range support below. If it is not broken, there is still a need to rise in the short term.If it falls below, be careful! Although the market still needs to rise in , pay attention to the pressure of the 3400-3420-3450 above, and pay attention to the coordination of trading volume! If the trading volume cannot be amplified simultaneously, it is necessary to prevent the index from rising and falling again! , but because the gap in the 3300-3286 range is very strong, if the support is not broken, the short term may face a big rebound! If it falls below, the risk will increase! There is still a gap in the capital market at the end of the year, and all kinds of funds in the market are cautious, which is not conducive to the market's rebound!
3, From the trend point of view, yesterday, the market has basically fluctuated between 3180-3450 in recent months, and the Shanghai Composite Index's 3180-3200 points are also the dividing line between the bulls and bears in the near future! Since a large number of chip cost lines were concentrated in this position in the early stage, as long as this position is not broken, the market will rebound in the short term! If the market falls below, it will also attract short positions, and there is a high probability that the bottom will form below! In terms of operation, avoid the risks of high-priced stocks and look for opportunities for the expected increase in the bottom performance sector and the 14th Five-Year Plan!
3, capital trend
1, yesterday the three major A-share indexes maintained a volatile consolidation trend throughout the day, and finally closed in the collective red market. The two markets had a total turnover of 881.1 billion yuan, with the industry sector rising less and falling more, and the brewing sector rising sharply. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to 3397.29 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 14044.10 points; and the ChiNext Index rose 0.07% to 2842.81 points. In terms of northbound funds, the Shanghai Stock Connect inflowed 335 million in the late trading, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect inflowed 1.938 billion in the late trading!
2, [ It is worth noting that: Foreign futures reduced their positions in the last three weeks of last month and more than 30,000 long orders; after that, foreign capital reduced its positions in short orders by more than 14,000 short orders! Last Monday, foreign futures increased short orders by 3178 lots, , Tuesday, foreign futures reduced short orders by 4282 lots, , , Wednesday, , short orders increased short orders by 1529 lots; last Thursday, , short orders increased short orders by 3231 lots, , last Friday, foreign futures reduced short orders by 919 lots; last Monday, foreign futures continued to reduce short orders by 1394 lots! Last Tuesday, foreign futures increased their short positions again by 1,100 lots; last Wednesday, foreign futures increased their short positions again by 1,072 lots; Last Thursday, foreign futures reduced their short positions by 2,300 lots, , last Friday, foreign futures increased their short positions by 1,231 lots; yesterday, foreign futures increased their short positions by 2,392 lots! Overall, foreign futures are still mainly short orders in recent days! 】
4, technical aspects
1, Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were fluctuating and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a red cross. The index did not fall sharply or rise sharply, but it was just a range of fluctuations! Below is the support of the 60 moving average, and above is the pressure around the front high of 3450! It is expected that as the end of the month approaches, the index will still be mainly fluctuating! However, although the index is halfway, the sectors are divided seriously, the strong will always be strong, and the weak will always be weak! Judging from the current trend, it is difficult for the index to rise sharply in the short term, mainly due to range fluctuations, and then look at the direction choice! Below is the support of the 60 and 120 moving averages. If you fall back and do not break this support, it will be easy to rebound! If there is a need for a rebound, the main thing is to look at the coordination of trading volume. If the trading volume cannot gradually increase, prevent the index from rising and falling again! From a technical perspective, the next important support mainly depends on the gap support in the 3350-3330-3286 range. If the retracement does not break, there will be a rebound. Due to the recent continuous shrinkage of market trading volume, it is the reason why the stock index cannot break through and upward! At the same time, since the index has been close to the high recently, some funds are still relatively cautious! The market sectors rotate rapidly, have serious differentiation, and have obvious switching between high and lows! Focus on changes in trading volume in the later period! Trading volume determines the height of the market! According to technical analysis, generally speaking, after breaking through the previous high, there will be a washing process, and the probability of attacking is high! The current market is basically a volatile market, and high-priced stocks have also made up for declines in the near future! In terms of operations, try to find opportunities for bottom-performing stocks!
2. From the perspective of technical indicators, the Shanghai Composite Index technical indicators, the daily KDJ bottom is once again golden crossed, and the daily MACD green bar has also begun to shrink! The market needs a rebound! In the short term, pay attention to avoiding stocks with poor performance and high performance prices. Most of the stocks that have fallen sharply recently are among the stocks with poor performance! In the short term, after the stock index rises, there is still a need to fluctuate and fall back to wash the market, so dig another gold pit.There is a high probability that the market will rebound afterwards! 's current main line is mainly focused on the cyclical stocks that have just exploded at the bottom and the 14th Five-Year Plan! But try to lurk as much as possible, not suitable for chasing highs! The rotation of the sector is accelerating, and it is easy to get trapped even if you chase highs! Pay attention to dips, band operation is the best strategy! Pay attention to avoid stocks with a cumulatively high gains and control positions.
5, market observation
1, the 14th Five-Year Plan may become a new breakthrough in the market development. In terms of specific directions, wait patiently for the stock index to fall back and then pay attention to new energy, new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, big technology, etc. that have responded in the early stage; in addition, countries have recently issued relevant policies in the direction of industrial big data and state-owned enterprise reform. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of growth significantly exceeding expectations in the third quarter report; in the medium term, it is optimistic about internal circulation and pro-cyclical industries; in the long term, you can pay attention to the expected gap in the 14th Five-Year Plan and focus on the direction of development. In terms of specific operations, control positions, and high-quality concepts can be used to buy at low prices in batches.
2. In the context of long-term fundamental rise, adjustment is actually a better opportunity to configure. In terms of specific directions, focus on the value of low-valuation allocations such as banks, securities, and insurance! As well as high prosperity directions such as national defense and military industry, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics. In terms of opportunity, we focus on two directions: first, cyclical stocks with low valuations. Secondly, the prosperity continues to be in a positive direction, such as new energy vehicles, engineering machinery, military industry and consumer electronics sectors!
3. The most important event in the market is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges solicit opinions on the new delisting rules. Judging from the solicitation of opinions, the new delisting rules have added new market value to delisting. One is that the total market value is less than 300 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, and the delisting of the face value is changed to "1 yuan delisting". This may not be good news for low-priced stocks and low-market targets, but it will increase the market delisting rate; secondly, there are changes in financial indicators. For example, a single net profit indicator becomes a reference for the combination of indicators. In addition, the new standards stipulated by the new regulations simplify the delisting process and improve the efficiency of delisting.
6, Industry Information
1. Overlord-level "cold wave is coming, demand for heating products continues to rise
Central Meteorological Observatory upgraded and issued an orange warning for cold wave on the morning of the 28th: It is expected that from the 28th to the 31st, most areas in central and eastern China will start the "quick freezing" mode, ushering in a cold wave weather process. This is also the highest level of cold wave warning since November 2016.
2, Tesla will produce lithium batteries without the pole ears, with a larger capacity and lower cost
It is reported that Panasonic Japan will manufacture a new 4680 cylindrical lithium battery for Tesla in 2021. This battery is a customized model of Tesla and is larger in size than the general model. , and use different raw materials. The new battery will adopt the nude-less ear technology, which reduces internal resistance and produces less heat. The nude-less ear battery helps to reduce the internal resistance of the battery current flowing through the battery, thereby improving performance. In addition to the improvement of battery capacity, canceling the nude-ester can reduce costs and simplify the production process.
3, the storage volume exceeds expectations, and the spot inventory of cobalt continues to decrease. The quotation is firm. According to reports, industry insiders said that after the storage in 2020, my country's cobalt will be collected and stored again in the first half of 2021, with an estimated storage volume of about 3,000 tons. Combined with the previously planned 2,000 tons, it has been collected and stored twice in a row, exceeding market expectations.
(For investors' reference only, it does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.)
7. Information navigation
"Overwill" cold wave is coming, and the demand for heating products is constantly rising.
Tesla will produce lithium batteries with larger capacity and lower cost.
storage capacity may exceed expectations, cobalt spot inventory continues to decrease, and the quotation is firm.
Huawei invests in Jiutongfang Microelectronics Company and advances into the core field of EDA.
Authoritative media pays attention to agricultural development and institutions are optimistic about innovation opportunities in breeding industry.
strives to break the data islands and the big data industry opens a new chapter in integration.
National Development and Reform Commission: A careful emergency plan for coal supply protection has been formulated.
The Development and Reform Commission will respond to the new round of heavy cooling weather and will appropriately increase coal imports according to the supply and demand situation.
Development and Reform Commission: Increase the guarantee of clean heating gas for the north, and tilt resource arrangements to seven key provinces and cities.
Business: The revision of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2020 Edition)" mainly has four highlights.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Normal Peak-off Production of Cement".
Central Bank paper: There have been problems with illegal use and credit sinking in market funds recently. Comprehensive, continuous and penetrating supervision of commercial banks is implemented.
Speaking at the symposium on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the capital market, it is pointed out that the reform of the registration system and delisting system will be taken as important means to strengthen the construction of basic systems.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice that all cement clinker production lines should be staggered for peak production, and promote the normalization of the regional and time of staggered cement production in the country.
last week's gross profit of lithium carbonate increased to 4988 yuan/ton, compared with only 2369 yuan/ton in the previous week. It is also reported that the inventory of the lithium carbonate industry has dropped to a new low since March 2019.
Photovoltaic ETF share increased by 2.668 billion last week, ranking first among all stock ETFs. The total share of the three securities industry ETFs increased by 3.15 billion shares.
Development and Reform issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2020 Edition)", encouraging foreign investment in a variety of industries, including ECMO manufacturing and 5G R&D and application.
According to Everbright Mechanical, the average position of equity-oriented mixed funds increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month last week. The shareholding of the optional consumer sector has been reduced and the shareholding of the cyclical and financial sectors has been increased.
market research firm Counterpoint's latest report pointed out that the total shipment volume of global laptop computer market hit a record high this year, and is expected to increase by 9% annually to 173 million units for the whole year.
Development and Reform: The "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged Foreign Investment (2020 Edition)" includes ECMO manufacturing, 5G R&D and Application, ventilator, PCR instrument manufacturing, online education, online medical care, and online office systems.
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