Introduction: Foreign capital's futures and spot arbitrage
Keywords: Index analysis, industry analysis, future market analysis
In one sentence, it is written in front: Opportunities are falling
Index analysis
On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to fluctuate weakly, Shanghai Stock Exchange 3 closed down 12 points, Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.3%, and ChiNext closed up 0.17%. The three major indexes are still under pressure from the short- and medium-term moving averages and are unable to make progress.
Funding , the two cities traded 1015.2 billion throughout the day, an increase of 22.2 billion compared with yesterday. Northbound funds maintained a net inflow throughout the day, with net inflow of 13.18 billion. The inflow scale has exceeded 10 billion for two consecutive days. This week, the cumulative net inflow was 23.3 billion.
sentiment face , the index fluctuated weakly, and stocks generally fell. The rise and fall ratio of individual stocks in the two markets was 1358:2976, a decline of 2.2 times more than the rise. Most individual stocks fell by about 2%, and the market sentiment score was only 3.8 points. However, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has 6 points, and foreign capital buys weighted stocks.
High frequency indicator Continue to be bullish Shanghai Stock Exchange 50Main contract (starts bullish on October 20)
High frequency indicator Continue to be bearish CSI 500Main contract (starts bullish on October 19)
High frequency indicator GEM index (starts bullish on October 22)
High frequency indicator Back again GEM index (starts bullish on October 22)
Plate interpretation
Three days after this week, my opinion is: 1. The index is easy to fall but difficult to rise; 2. The market lacks a clear main line; 3. The industry sector is driven by events, and the difficulty of speculation is increasing; 4. Wait for a clearer trading signal; In the past three trading days, the index has repeatedly risen and fallen back to , and the Shanghai Composite Index has 3,600 points in a row. During the rebound, most stocks rose by 1%, while the decline was a general decline, and the decline was around 2%. Individual stocks are easy to fall but difficult to rise, and the money loss effect is significant. In addition, the coal and liquor sectors jump up and down, and is very easy to reverse and get beaten on both sides.
The leading the rise today was the real estate industry chain, with many stocks in real estate, home appliances and home furnishings hitting the daily limit. According to the news, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that it is necessary to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, ensure the credit needs of the group with urgent needs, and support first-home buyers in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rates. The loan quotas of some banks in a certain city will be fully opened, and banks have begun to resume normal lending! This kind of driving incident is unpredictable in advance, the scope of impact afterwards is uncertain, and the hype is poorly sustainable.
Speaking of which, the reason for supporting real estate is the increasing downward pressure on the economy, and real estate needs to support it. The economic downturn is also the main reason for weak fluctuations in the index and general decline in individual stocks. Against this background, foreign capital has inflowed 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days. I think it is related to the opening of MSCI China A50 Stock Index Futures. Foreign capital bought spot stocks for futures and spot arbitrage. The top ten constituent stocks in the index are as follows:
Except for Wanhua Chemical , the top ten constituent stocks all rose against the market. MSCI China A50 index futures , which trades in Hong Kong, rose 1.24%, significantly stronger than other indexes. Therefore, don’t be confused by the appearance of the index’s rise. Apart from the factors of foreign capital’s futures and spot arbitrage, the internal trend of A shares has weakened.
Industry Trend Analysis
Foreign capital's buying of weighted stocks has an impact on the index. Currently, it continues to be bullish on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, re-bullising the ChiNext, and continues to be bearish on the CSI 500. The recent trend of industry trends has been improved for 8 consecutive days. It remained stable in the first three trading days of this week, without increasing or decreasing, and officially weakened in the last two trading days.
does not increase or decrease means confusion, and weakening means choosing the direction. As of Friday's closing, only 23 industries MACD accounted for more than 50%, a decrease of 6 industries on a month-on-month basis. Finance, technology and some cyclical industries account for more than 50%.
In the financial industry, the upward trend ratios of insurance and banks are 100% and 80% respectively, both of which remain unchanged. The insurance industry is all on an upward trend. The proportion of securities downward trend is around 80%, and the expansion is 5%. Recent statements by regulators are the main reason for the strengthening of finance. by the end of 2, the dividend yield of the financial sector was relatively high, and the economic downturn increased the risk aversion demand of the financial sector.
In the consumer industry, the downward trend of beverage manufacturing is 70%, which remains unchanged. The upward trend of automobiles and white goods for optional consumption is 85% and 70% respectively, with an expansion of 5%. The liquor index fell by 1 day and rose by 4 days, with a weekly decline of 2.2%. Automobile is driven by sales, and home appliances are driven by the real estate industry.
In medical-related industries, the downward trend of medical services, chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, traditional Chinese medicine, and pharmaceutical businesses is between 75% and 70%, with a slight expansion but less than 5%. The medical and medical indexes are still at the lower edge of the volatile range. continue to wait and see. The industry continues to differentiate in the 1-cycle cycle, with the downward trend proportion of petroleum mining, gas, petrochemical, environmental protection engineering, coal, electricity, cement, steel, garden engineering, real estate development, chemical raw materials, etc., being 100-70%. Expand 5%. Rare metals , non-metallic materials, industrial metals, gold, glass, chemical products, chemical fibers, etc., upward trend ratio is between 80-45%, and non-ferrous metals shrink by 5%. The five departments strictly implement energy efficiency constraints in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, , and cement. has a great impact on the production capacity of related industries.
In the technology industry, the upward trend proportion of military aerospace, semiconductors, components, automotive accessories, electrical equipment, electronic manufacturing, IT equipment, software, optical optoelectronics, instruments, communication equipment, etc. is 80-45%. Some industries shrank by 5%. There are signs of breakthrough in the semiconductor sector.
In summary, the decline of most individual stocks has led to the official weakening of the industry trend. Foreign capital's purchase of weighted stocks improves the index trend, that is, the index diverges from the industry trend. The future market index is likely to weaken with the industry trend. When cyclical stocks weakened and spilled out funds made consumption and technology stronger, some individual stocks reported third-quarter results exceeded expectations, and also supported the improvement of trends in the technology industry.
future market outlook
Foreign capital allocation futures and spot arbitrage makes A-share index better than individual stocks, but when foreign capital allocation is completed, it will be revealed. A strong attack of 3600 points is not advisable. It is more conducive to a long attack after retreating. The weakening of the internal trend of the market in the short term is not a bad thing. The index will not rise in trend in the economic downturn. Only when falls can there be room for growth. Risks come from rising, opportunities come from falling.
For more content, please pay attention to the [Weekly Strategy] on Sunday night, and I wish you all a happy weekend!
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