Summary of views
Core views: is more The pressure on foreign investment is relatively eased, and there is still time before Federal next time hike rate . In the short term, the supervision of the China-US Securities Regulatory Commission is in the stage of active communication. Under the strict domestic lockdown, the epidemic is expected to be controlled. The deteriorating economic data market has been fully expected, and the market expects further strengthening of stimulus policies. A shares rebound is expected to continue. Since market expectations are concentrated on financial real estate, the benefits of , Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, are more obvious and have a greater chance of winning.
Valuation: is too much CSI 300 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 risk premium is relatively low, CSI 500 valuation is relatively low, and Wande All A valuation is neutral.
Short-term funds: is more weekly funds continue to flow out significantly slowed down significantly, and northbound funds flowed in significantly.
short order: neutral short order remains stable and close to the body.
Economic data: is empty PMI data deteriorates rapidly. The economic data in March received a severe impact from the epidemic.
major assets: neutral commodity fluctuated at a high level, and iron ore and threads, mainly based on China's demand, performed strongly.
Emergency: is more CSRC revised the confidentiality terms related to corporate overseas listing to release the attitude of openness to the outside world. Chinese stocks listed in the list and Hong Kong stocks rebounded continuously.
Industry sector structure: is more Market funds are concentrated in three hot spots, one is the epidemic-related medical care, the second is to stimulate the continuous increase in real estate policies, and the third is the rebound of Chinese stocks listed in the United States. Financial real estate has a great impact on the index, while Chinese stocks listed in the US have a great impact on , Hang Seng Index, .
html China's PMI data in March fell sharply, with the manufacturing PMI falling below 50 again, and the non-manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, which fell rapidly after the impact of the epidemic. The new order index has also generally declined to a contraction area, and the new export order index, which is not affected by the epidemic, has also continued to decline to a low level of 47.2%.
Only the raw material price index has continued to rise. With the economic downturn and the soaring price of travel, the global situation of stagflation and has also had a significant impact on China. As the epidemic lockdown in March was nationwide, the core economy was the characteristic of the hard-hit area, and the drag on the economy was second only to the first outbreak of the epidemic.
Globally, Japan PMI rebounded slightly, while Europe and the United States PMI continued to decline. The US PMI sub-index also only has the price index continued to rise, while the other sub-indexes all fell.
2. Economic Policy
Military operations continued, and a "buying tragedy" occurred, and Ukraine accused Russian military of genocide. Europe and the United States have increased sanctions on Russia. There is little hope for reconciliation.
CSRC revised the confidentiality terms related to corporate overseas listing. The statement that "on-site inspections should be carried out mainly in my country's regulatory agencies, or rely on the inspection results of my country's regulatory agencies", emphasized the cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism and demonstrated an open-minded attitude towards cooperation. Chinese stocks generally rebounded. The short-term is favorable for market rebound, but in the medium and long term, the core of the United States' strengthening of supervision of Chinese companies listed in the United States is part of the confrontation between China and the United States and a way for the United States to suppress China's development. Therefore, there is no final solution, and it will inevitably be repeated with the development of Sino-US relations. From a political perspective, the impact has not eased, and from an economic perspective, the Fed's currency contraction is still strengthening.
The epidemic in Shanghai is still serious, with more than 13,000 new infections, and the dynamic zeroing policy is facing tremendous pressure. At the same time, it also affects the national epidemic prevention policies.
Real estate policy: All localities have begun to lift restrictions on sales and purchase restrictions, and in the context of the economic downturn and suppression of the epidemic, the stimulus on real estate has risen again.
US ten-year treasury bonds rose to around 2.42%, and the real interest rate rebounded to more than -0.38%. The US dollar fluctuated. The short-term yields of the United States and the United States have already shown an inverted phenomenon. US stocks fluctuated at a high level.
RMB exchange rate index surged and fell back , and the RMB fluctuated against the US dollar. With the significant decline in exports, the exchange rate is likely to reach the top, and it is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future.
commodities generally fluctuate at high levels, and iron ore, which is oriented towards domestic demand, performed the strongestly with rebar .
4. A-share market
Short-term capital outflows decreased significantly last week, and northbound funds showed that Russia and Ukraine had the first significant return after the war began. At the same time, long-term funds of ETFs continued to increase their positions, and leveraged funds of the two-way financing continued to reduce their positions. stock index futures net short orders are stable and discounts are reduced.
The ratio of CSI 500 to CSI 300 has entered the fluctuation range, the ratio of Shanghai 50 to CSI 300 has fluctuated and rises, and financial real estate has pushed up the Shanghai 50.
China and the United States' 10-year Treasury bond Interest spread continues to fall sharply to historical lows, with limited room for further downward in the short term, which is conducive to the rebound of the stock index.
During the short holiday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the confidentiality terms related to corporate overseas listing. Chinese stocks and Hong Kong stocks rebounded continued.
Structurally, the industry performance last week led the rise in real estate, energy and banks, while the semiconductor, technology hardware and equipment industries, automobiles and accessories led the decline. The first-level industries that the Mainland Stock Connect continues to flow into: financial real estate, daily consumption, and materials. The first-level industries that continue to flow out of the Mainland Stock Connect: Information Technology, Energy. Market funds are concentrated in three hot spots: one is the epidemic-related medical care, the second is to stimulate the continuous increase in real estate policies, and the third is the rebound of Chinese stocks listed in the United States.
We believe that the pressure on foreign investment in April is relatively eased, the Russian-Ukrainian war is anxious, and there is still time before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next time. In the short term, the supervision of the China-US Securities Regulatory Commission is in a stage of active communication. Under the strict domestic lockdown, the epidemic is expected to be controlled. The deteriorating economic data market has been fully expected, and the market expects further strengthening of stimulus policies. The rebound of A-shares is expected to continue. As market expectations are concentrated on financial real estate, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has more obvious benefits and a greater chance of winning.
Global PMI
China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI
PMI new order
PMI new order
Value and industry data monitoring
weekly market comprehensive data monitoring
- Frequently-term capital outflows decreased significantly last week, and northbound funds showed a significant return for the first time since the war started. At the same time, long-term funds of ETFs continued to increase their positions, and leveraged funds of the two-way financing continued to reduce their positions.
weekly liquidity total
Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Risk premium rate
- Ten-year Treasury bond interest rate 2.77%, the risk premium rate is neutral and high, and the price-performance ratio has been significantly improved after the stock index has declined significantly.
Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 interest-benefit bond difference
- Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 dividend yield is 2.77%, the interest-benefit bond difference is at zero value, and has configuration value.
CSI 500 valuation
- CSI 500PE and PB are both below the 10% quantile, which is significantly low.
10,000 full A valuation
Global Asset pricing center US 10-year Treasury bond
- US 10-year Treasury bond rose to around 2.44%, and the real interest rate rebounded to more than -0.38%. The US dollar fluctuated.
U.S. Treasury bond maturity interest spread and inflation expectations
- U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds and two-year Treasury bonds showed inverted yields, and inflation expectations and crude oil fluctuated at high levels.
China-US interest rate spread and stock index
- China-US 10-year treasury bond spread continues to fall sharply to historical lows, with limited room for further downward in the short term, which is conducive to the rebound of the stock index.
money bond market interest rate
- money market 7 days SHIBOR is stable at a low level, the 1-year treasury bond interest rate rebounded slightly, the interbank certificate of deposit interest rate is stable, and the 1-year treasury bond fluctuates.
RMB exchange rate
- RMB exchange rate index surged and fell, and the RMB fluctuated against the US dollar. With the significant decline in exports, the exchange rate is likely to reach its peak, and it is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future.
stock bond dealer rotation
- Last week, the ten-year treasury bond futures fluctuated, the CSI commodity index fluctuated at the top, and the stock index fluctuated at the bottom. The original trend has changed.
CSI 500, CSI 300, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 price comparison
- The ratio of CSI 500 and CSI 300 has entered the fluctuation range, the ratio of Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fluctuates and rises, and financial real estate pushes up the Shanghai 50.
turnover rate
Corrective Active Buying
- Last week, active buying showed a significant increase. Short-term incremental funds flow back.
The balance of margin trading and transactions
- The balance of margin trading decreased by 6.4 billion, continuing to decline slightly.
ETF share
- stock ETF increased by 4.8 billion, and long-term passive funds were slightly outflowed.
Northward capital changes
- Northward capital flowed slightly last week 22.9 billion yuan, with the first significant inflow since the war started.
New equity-oriented fund scale
- New equity-oriented fund issuance scale increased by 6.4 billion last week, and fund issuance fell into a low point.
IPO listing scale
- IPO listing amount is 13.4 billion, 10.4 billion after the review, CNOOC issued A shares after the review, with a financing amount of 35 billion, and the financing amount is on the rise.
Important shareholders' increase and decrease in holdings
- Last week, the amount of industrial capital reduced holdings by 9.8 billion, which was at a neutral level.
weekly restricted shares lifted scale
- The scale of lifting the ban in April 2022 is relatively small, and there is little pressure to reduce holdings.
stock index futures net short order changes
- IC top ten net short orders are stable, the average basis discount is significantly reduced, and the pressure on the preservation market is not significant.
stock index futures basis and net short order changes
- IF top ten members net short orders remain stable, basis discount narrows, and the value-preservation plate is stable.
change in stock index futures short orders
- IH top ten members of the net short order continue to shrink, the comprehensive basis discount is reduced, there is no pressure to preserve value, and the long force is relatively strong.
Industry changes
- Last week's industry performance led the rise in real estate, energy and banks, while semiconductor, technology hardware and equipment industries, automobiles and accessories led the decline.
Trade transactions in traditional industries
- Trade transactions in traditional industries last week The proportion of real estate in rose sharply, and at the same time, it drove the financial sector, and materials and industry fell relatively.
Trade of transactions in the new economy industry
- Trade of new economy transactions in the new economy health care market remains high, optional consumption rebounded slightly, and information technology declined.
The first-level industry that the Lukoutong continues to flow in: financial real estate, daily consumption, materials
The first-level industry that the Lukoutong continues to flow out: information technology, energy
The Lukoutong continues to flow out: information technology, energy
The Lukoutong stable First-level industries: industry, optional consumption, health care, utilities
Author: Jia Ruibin
Content source: Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
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