From a global context, the appreciation of the RMB is also part of the rebound of non-US currencies. In the past period of time, non-US currencies have rebounded to varying degrees, including a series of non-US currencies such as the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Australian

On August 5, the offshore and the onshore exchange rate of RMB appreciated by more than 300 basis points, breaking through 6.94, setting a new high since March.

looks at the global context, the appreciation of the RMB is also part of the rebound of non-US currencies. In the past period of time, non-US currencies have rebounded to varying degrees, including a series of non-US currencies such as the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar. The US dollar index continued to decline, and the US dollar index has fallen to 93.

statistics show that in July, the US dollar index depreciated by 4%, and the RMB appreciated by 1.4%, and my country's interest rate bond yield continued to rise in July. The average monthly spread of 10-year treasury bonds between China and the United States was 233 basis points, a significant widening of 24 basis points from June, and the RMB exchange rate rise is steady.

In contrast, the US dollar index has fallen by 10% since it fell from March 20 to July 30. According to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the speculative short position of the US dollar has reached US$24.27 billion in the week ended July 28, not only a 29% surge from US$18.81 billion in the previous week, but also a record high since August 2011. Behind the surge in shorting of the US dollar funds is investors skeptical of the prospect of the rebound in the third quarter of the US GDP growth rate. The prospect of US economic recovery is bleak, and the yield of US bonds has mostly declined, setting a record low for 5 years, and the 10-year period is also approaching a historical record low. The current three-month US dollar Libor interest rate has also fallen to 0.242%, hitting a new low since December 2014.

both onshore and offshore rose above 6.94 RMB continued to appreciate

As the US dollar index continued to fall, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar against the US dollar both hit new highs since March in the onshore and offshore markets. On August 5, the RMB exchange rate appreciated by more than 300 basis points in the day. During the same period, data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that on August 5, the RMB mid-price appreciated by 51 basis points against the US dollar to 6.9752.

Among them, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose after opening at 6.9660, breaking through more than 6.96, 6.95 and 6.94 marks, and appreciated by more than 300 basis points in the day. At 20:35, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.940, up 320 points from the previous trading day.

In the offshore market, the RMB exchange rate also followed the onshore market and rose above the 6.94 mark. The offshore RMB exchange rate, which reflects more expectations of international investors, rose above the 6.97, 6.96, 6.95 and 6.94 marks on August 5, and once appreciated to 6.9388.

shorted the US dollar position hit a 9-year high, and the US dollar index plummeted 10%

It is worth noting that in the past period of time, non-US currencies have rebounded to varying degrees, not only the RMB, but also a series of non-US currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar have rebounded. The US dollar index has continued to decline, and the US dollar index has fallen to 93 now.

statistics show that the ICE Dollar Index (US Dollar Index, DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against six major currencies, has fallen by 10% since it fell from March 20 to July 30. The three-month US dollar Libor interest rate also fell to 0.242%, a new low since December 2014.

According to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the speculative short position of the US dollar has reached US$24.27 billion in the week ended July 28, not only a 29% surge from US$18.81 billion in the previous week, but also a record high since August 2011.

At present, the "market barometer" indicator that measures the confidence status of investors in the US dollar index has fallen below 25, indicating that the market is extremely pessimistic. However, the "market barometer" of gold rose above 25, which means people are extremely optimistic.

It is worth noting that behind the continued decline of the US dollar index is that the United States has obvious differences in the new round of epidemic relief measures, and the yield on US bonds is approaching a historical low. Democratic congressmen and White House recently negotiated on a new round of epidemic relief plan, and the two sides had big differences. Trump said that if an agreement cannot be reached soon, it may unilaterally adopt executive orders to implement relief measures, including suspending salary tax and extending the suspension of eviction order. Investors are skeptical about the prospect of a rebound in the U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter. The prospect of US economic recovery is bleak, and US Treasury yields have mostly declined, setting a record low for the 5-year period and approaching a record low for the 10-year period.

Regarding the outlook for the US dollar, Goldman Sachs Strategy Analysis Report believes that it is still bearish against the US dollar against the main G10 currencies, with the first being the euro and European currencies including the Swedish krone and Norwegian krone, followed by cyclical currencies such as the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New York dollar. Goldman Sachs strategists believe that despite the massive sell-off, the US dollar is still overvalued and its fundamentals are not good, according to most indicators. In the next year, the trade-weighted dollar will depreciate by 5.3%.

Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett pointed out, "With the factors that cause the insufficient supply of the US dollar, relative growth and yields are better than the US dollar, the current account deficit continues to narrow, and more effective policy measures after the crisis 'disappear', we finally see that the US dollar bull market is heading for death."

Domestic real interest rates have risen, and foreign capital has increased its holdings in Chinese bonds for the second time

has continued to fall compared with the US Treasury bond yield, setting a record low, and China's domestic Treasury bond yields have continued to strengthen.

html China's interest rate bond yield continued to rise in July, with the average monthly interest rate spread of 10-year treasury bonds between China and the United States being 233 basis points, a sharply widening 24 basis points from June. In addition, the US dollar index depreciated by 4%, the RMB appreciated 1.4% against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose steadily.

At the same time, the issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit, which is highly concerned about the market capital port, is also continuing to rise. Statistics show that the issuance rates of certificates of deposit for each term have steadily risen since June, and the weighted average interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit issued by state-owned banks and urban and rural commercial banks have risen by about 117 basis points and 55 basis points respectively.

Against this background, foreign institutions increased their holdings in the Chinese bond market for the second time in July. According to the data released by Central Treasury Bond Registration and Settlement Co., Ltd. on August 4, as of the end of July this year, the balance of bonds custody by the institution reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 148.1 billion yuan month-on-month, which is the second time that foreign capital has increased its holdings in large quantities during the year, setting a record for the highest single-month record for foreign capital to increase its holdings in Chinese bonds since September 2017.

Since December 2018, overseas institutional investors have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds for 20 consecutive months. Data disclosed by Bond Connect Co., Ltd. recently showed that trading was active in July, with a total transaction volume of Bond Connect of 446.9 billion yuan and a net purchase of 75.5 billion yuan, setting a record high of one month, an increase of 83.7% from the previous month; in July, more than 70 customers completed their first bond Connect transaction since entering the market.