Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! Today is January 15th. Today's article title is "Index divergence unfolds and retraces, high-level stocks make up for the decline, low-level stocks rebound oversold, look at this support in the short term!

Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! today is January 15th. Today's article title is "Index divergence unfolds and retraces, high-level stocks make up for the decline, low-level stocks rebound oversold, look at this support in the short term! 》

[All views, no basis for buying and selling, the stock market is risky, investment should be cautious]

1, [News side] [The "buyback wave" is on the rise again, institutions are eager to find a low-valuation depression in the "performance fulfillment"] As a relatively common stock price stability maintenance measure in the A-share market, in addition to special risk events, share repurchases are often accompanied by further increase in the company's stock price. However, what is strange is that just two days ago, the Shanghai Composite Index just stood at 3,600 points. On the one hand, major indexes frequently hit new highs. With the institutions gathered together, the stock prices of leading stocks were rising day by day. On the other hand, a large number of listed companies launched repurchases in an attempt to save the shaky stock prices.

[Foreign Market Review] On Thursday, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 68.95 points, or 0.22%, to 30,991.52 points; the Nasdaq closed down 16.31 points, or 0.12%, to 13,112.64 points; the S&P 500 closed down 14.30 points, or 0.38%, to 3,795.54 points. Commodity market: International gold prices fell slightly, and they still hovered near the $1,850 mark. As of the close, the most active trading price of the gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $3.5 on the 14th from the previous trading day, closing at $1,851.4 per ounce, a drop of 0.19%. International oil prices closed higher, and US oil rose by more than 1%. As of the close, New York February crude oil futures closed up $0.66, or 1.25%, to $53.57 per barrel.

2, market review

1, yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose and fell again, and the market fluctuated and fell again! The index opened low in the early trading and rebounded, but the market pressure was huge! So after pullback, continue to fall and adjust! From the market perspective, yesterday, the main lines of national defense and military industry, lithium battery, photovoltaics, liquor, military industry, etc., fell sharply. Some funds flowed into oversold stocks in technology sectors such as semiconductors and domestic software, while low-valuation sectors such as banks and real estate also performed. Overall, funds switch at high and low levels, and individual stocks in sectors have significantly differentiated. From the perspective of sectors, the market has switched again. In the short term, it is not advisable to chase highs for hot spots with large recent increases! You can see the industry leaders that have just started at the bottom, and there is usually a need to make up for the rise! 2. Technically, the major index opened low and closed high on Tuesday, and both closed in reverse, but the trading volume did shrink. Without volume coordination, the stock index rose and fell again yesterday and the day before yesterday! In the short term, there is still a need for fluctuations after rising again. The market has a high probability of washing the market, but there is not much room for a rebound. Let’s see the support in the range of 3530-3500-3480. If you get support, there is a high probability of continuing to attack later! Since major indexes have broken through last year's highs! Then, the market in January will not be pessimistic! There are many opportunities in January, seize every opportunity to pull back! In operation. Looking for opportunities in sectors that expect performance growth and the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as opportunities in sectors such as national defense and military industry, securities, photovoltaics, new energy, large consumption, agriculture and other sectors! In terms of operation, do not chase high prices and pay attention to the opportunity to fall back!

3. Funding trend

1. Yesterday, the three major A-share indexes closed down collectively, of which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.91% to close at 3565.90 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.92% to close at 15070.13 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1.31% to close at 3089.18 points. It is worth noting that the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index performed well yesterday, closing up 2.83% and closed at 1447.27 points. The turnover volume of the two markets exceeded 1.12 trillion yuan, exceeding one trillion yuan for nine consecutive trading days. Industry sectors rose more and fell less, photoresist concept stocks rose sharply, and military industry and winemaking sectors fell sharply. Northbound funds net purchases of 5.107 billion yuan yesterday. The Shanghai Stock Connect had a net inflow of 3.569 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net inflow of 4.537 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total inflow of 8.106 billion yuan.

2, [It is worth noting that: after the foreign-funded futures chips subtract the long orders of up to more than 40,000 lots, they continue to increase their short positions continuously! Last week, foreign futures increased their short positions by 6,006 lots; this week, foreign futures increased their short positions by 2,372 lots, and on Tuesday, foreign futures reduced their short positions by 354 lots, and on Wednesday, foreign futures increased their short positions by 2,334 lots again! Yesterday, foreign futures increased their short positions by 5384 lots! Overall, foreign futures are still mainly short orders in recent days! Currently, short orders are close to 23,000 lots! Foreign futures increase short positions almost every day, which is not conducive to the rebound of the stock market! I really can’t understand the practice of foreign futures now! It is also possible that foreign futures are in the middle line! Therefore, after the stock index rises sharply, it is necessary to be cautious! 】

4. Technical aspects

1. After high pressure before the index attack on Monday, it surged and fell. The stock index bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday, but the trading volume shrank, and the index rose yesterday and the day before yesterday fell back! Judging from the short-period K-line, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 60 minutes MACD divergence! The short-term market will first fluctuate, and then choose the direction! Although the short-term stock index still rises, it depends on whether the trading volume increases? If the trading volume cannot keep up, prevent the index from falling back again, but the pullback is an opportunity, and the market is expected to have little room for pullback! Below, we mainly look at the support of the 10-day moving average range of 3500-3530. If it does not break, there is a high probability of continuing to rebound! From the perspective of moving average system, the major index moving averages show a trend of bullish arrangement, and the indicators are perfectly coordinated! Large cycle indicator resonance. It indicates that the market has entered a new stage! According to technical analysis, there is usually a need for a retracement after a breakthrough, but any retracement is a lurking opportunity. Once the index retracement is confirmed, a retracement is an opportunity! If you step back and don’t break, you can lurk again! Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen simultaneously in daily, weekly and monthly cycles, with signs of trend resonance, forming a positive signal. It is expected that there is little room for a short-term rebound! It is expected that the short-term stock index will fluctuate in the range of 3480-3600! In the short term, you should adopt the idea of ​​buying low and selling high, and remember to chase high!

2. From the perspective of technical indicators, the Shanghai Composite Index technical indicators are diverged again at the bottom of the daily KDJ golden cross ! The daily MACD green column disappears from the golden cross, and the red column gradually enlarges! Although there is still a need for fluctuations after the market surges, there is limited room for retracement! There is a need for a rebound in the market in January! In the short term, pay attention to avoiding stocks with poor performance and high performance prices. Most of the stocks that have fallen sharply recently are among the stocks with poor performance! At present, the main line is mainly concentrated in the cyclical stocks that have just exploded at the bottom and the 14th Five-Year Plan! But try to lurk as much as possible, not suitable for chasing highs! The sector rotation is accelerated, and it is easy to get trapped even if you chase highs! Pay attention to dips, band operation is the best strategy! Pay attention to avoid stocks with a cumulatively high gains and control positions.

5. Market observation

1. The 14th Five-Year Plan may become a new breakthrough in the market development. In terms of specific directions, wait patiently for the stock index to fall back and then pay attention to new energy, new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, big technology, etc. that have responded in the early stage; in addition, countries have recently issued relevant policies in the direction of industrial big data and state-owned enterprise reform. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of growth significantly exceeding expectations in the third quarter report; in the medium term, it is optimistic about internal circulation and pro-cyclical industries; in the long term, you can pay attention to the expected gap in the 14th Five-Year Plan and focus on the direction of development. In terms of specific operations, control positions, and high-quality concepts can be used to buy at low prices in batches.

2. In the context of long-term fundamental rise, adjustment is actually a better opportunity to configure. In terms of specific directions, focus on the value of low-valuation allocations such as banks, securities, and insurance! As well as high prosperity directions such as national defense and military industry, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics. In terms of opportunity, we focus on two directions: first, cyclical stocks with low valuations. Secondly, the prosperity continues to be in a positive direction, such as new energy vehicles, engineering machinery, military industry and consumer electronics sectors!

3. The most important event in the market is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges solicit opinions on the new delisting rules. Judging from the solicitation of opinions, the new delisting rules have added new market value to delisting. One is that the total market value is less than 300 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, and the delisting of the face value is changed to "1 yuan delisting". This may not be good news for low-priced stocks and low-market targets, but it will increase the market delisting rate; secondly, there are changes in financial indicators.For example, a single net profit indicator becomes a reference for the combination of indicators. In addition, the new standards stipulated by the new regulations simplify the delisting process and improve the efficiency of delisting.

6. Industry information

1. graphics card out of stock price increases are becoming more and more serious, and the market supply and demand structure is still improving. According to media reports, the phenomenon of short-stock price increases in graphics card after the holiday is becoming more and more serious. Recently, industry insiders have reported that high-end cards for the RTX 30 series and RX 6000 series are difficult to find, and mid- and low-end graphics cards such as the GTX 1650 Super graphics card of NVIDIA are also difficult to find. Affected by the shortage of supply, graphics card companies such as ASUS , Souste, and EVGA have recently raised their quotations one after another. Recently, the major graphics card manufacturer Asus has publicly announced that its graphics cards and motherboards will increase prices across the board, of which the graphics cards have increased by nearly 20%, including the RX 6000 series and the RTX 30 series. After the holiday, Sotai has raised the quotation of RTX 30 series graphics cards twice. RTX 3090 has the largest increase. After the price adjustment of RTX 3090 on the 13th, it has reached US$1,900 after the price adjustment of RTX 3090, an increase of 23% from before the holiday. EVGA issued a notice on its official website, saying that due to a series of reasons, EVGA decided to adjust the price of RTX 30 series graphics cards, which will take effect on January 11, with a price increase of about US$70.

2, the world's first RISC-V AI single-board computer was born, and the RISC-V ecosystem is expected to accelerate the growth of

According to reports, on January 13, Saifang Technology, a RISC-V processor IP supplier, held a new product launch conference in Shanghai, and worked with partners to launch the world's first RISC-V AI single-board computer based on Linux operating system, namely Starlight AI single-board computer (Beagle-V). Starlight is a low-cost, fanless single-board computer equipped with Saifang Technology's RISC-V vision processing SoC chip, and has all the scalability functions of a desktop computer. According to reports, Starlight AI single-board computer will be officially launched on the market in March 2021. Li Jiajie, co-founder of Saifang Technology, said, "The world's first Starlight AI single-board computer has taken a big step forward in the RISC-V ecosystem, laying the foundation for RISC-V to replace exclusive architectures in the field of general computing in the future." As a well-known leader in RISC-V technology and ecosystem in China, with the official launch of Starlight, Saifang Technology has gradually taken shape from IP cores to chips and boards, which will help RISC-V to hardware developers one step closer.

(For investors' reference only, it does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so investing should be cautious.)

7, information navigation

Development and reform: The total retail sales of automobile consumer goods accounted for 9.8% from January to November.

Graphics card out of stock price increase is becoming more and more serious, and the market supply and demand structure is still improving.

Business: Improve the rural circulation system and encourage pickup trucks and other cars to go to the countryside.

Tibet's 14th Five-Year Plan Recommendation: Accelerate the research and pilot projects of "photovoltaic + energy storage". Shanghai will speed up the issuance of a carbon peak action plan and strive to build an international carbon finance center.

The world's first RISC-V AI single-board computer was born, and the RISC-V ecosystem is expected to accelerate the growth of

Central Shanghai Headquarters: Strictly regulate foreign exchange business in the capital market, cross-border housing and stock trading, etc. Foreign exchange: Prevent and control systemic risks of cross-border capital flows, maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market and national financial security.