Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! today is March 2. The title of today's article is "The market rebounds under positive stimulation. Pay attention to trading volume and this pressure zone in the short term. If you fall back, it is still an opportunity to pull back! 》
【The above are personal ideas, no basis for trading, the stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing! 】
1, [News face]
1, [ stamp duty must be legislated] Weekend Stamp Tax Law was submitted for review for the first time, and the relevant provisions on stamp duty for securities transactions should be raised to law; promote the comprehensive registration system, transfer to the New Third Board directly to the GEM Science and Technology Innovation Board , expand the source of securities lending securities, CITIC Securities has huge share issuance, and the fund issuance scale shrank in February. is expected to be a market for volatile rebound. It is expected to be a volatile rebound before mid-March, and then it will have a high probability of fluctuation and fallback! In terms of the sector, the market this week and decline are expected to rise in turn around agriculture, environmental protection, technology, military industry, carbon neutrality, and oversold high-performance stocks! In terms of operation, do not chase high prices, only lurk! Because the market hot spots are difficult to sustain! also prevents the index from fluctuating and falling again after mid-March!
2, [Overnight Outside Market] Overnight Outside Market, stimulated by the positive effects of the US of 1.9 trillion on the weekend, European and American stock markets closed higher yesterday! The Nasdaq rose more than 3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 2%, and the S&P rose 2.38%;
A, as of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 603.14 points to 31535.51 points, an increase of 1.95%; the Nasdaq closed up 396.48 points to 13588.83 points, an increase of 3.01%; the S&P 500 closed up 90.67 points to 3901.82 points, an increase of 2.38%;
B, large technology stocks, new energy vehicles, and blockchain sectors performed strongly; Apple rose more than 5%, and Tesla rose more than 6%;
Ch, commodity market: international oil prices closed down, all of which fell more than 1%. As of the closing, New York April crude oil futures closed down US$0.86, down 1.40%, at US$60.64 per barrel; international gold prices closed slightly lower, still hovering below the $1,730 mark. As of the close, the most active trading price of the gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $5.8 on the 1st from the previous trading day, closing at $1,723 per ounce, a drop of 0.34%;
2, market review
1. Stimulated by the three major positive news on the weekend, the market opened high and closed high yesterday, fluctuating and rebounding! It rose in the morning and then fell back and fell back, but the index continued to rise in the afternoon! The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% at the close of the market, while the SME Board and ChiNext Index rose by nearly 2.5%! From the market perspective, yesterday was a general rise after a continuous sharp drop! The main market line is still focused on nonferrous metals, rare earths, chemicals, papermaking, engineering machinery, semiconductors, environmental protection, and other sectors. The group sector and stocks are showing signs of repair. The market only performs in securities, banks and other sectors! Yesterday, the market sentiment was good, with more stocks rising and less falling, and the market making money effect was better! , but yesterday's trading volume continued to sluggish, and the short-term market still needs to rise. Pay attention to the pressure zone in the 3580 area above. If you cannot break through, you can increase your position and reduce your position. Once you step back, it will be an opportunity to fall back!
2. Yesterday, major indexes opened high and closed high, fluctuating and rebounding. After a big drop, the market finally ushered in an oversold rebound! In the short term, after the rise, it is expected that the index will still need to fall back. If it falls back, the support in the 3530-3500-3480 range below the short term of will mainly look at the support in the 3530-3500-3480 range, and will not break these important support. There is still a need for a higher index! After the pullback is in place, the market still needs to rebound from early March to mid-March, but pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3600-3630-3650 above! At the same time, we must avoid the risks of poor-performing stocks and high-priced stocks to prevent missteps! In terms of operations, look for opportunities in sectors that expect performance growth and the 14th Five-Year Plan. Always be alert to the changes in the index in operation! Especially after entering the middle of the month, do not chase highs!
3, capital trends
1, yesterday, the three major indexes of A shares closed up collectively, of which the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.21% to close at 3551.40 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.41% to close at 14857.34 points; the ChiNext Index rose 2.77% to close at 2994.75 points. The two markets had a total turnover of 873.188 billion yuan, with industry sectors generally rising, and the concept of rare earth permanent magnet led the rise. Northbound funds net purchases of 3.786 billion yuan yesterday.The Shanghai Stock Connect had a net inflow of 2.216 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net inflow of 4.344 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total inflow of 6.56 billion yuan.
2, [It is worth noting that last year, foreign investors futures chips subtracted the long orders of up to 40,000 lots, and then continued to increase short orders! last week, foreign futures increased their positions in short orders by 4,960 lots; last Monday, foreign futures increased their positions in short orders again by more than 3,000 lots; last Tuesday, foreign futures increased their positions in short orders by 1,605 lots; last Wednesday, foreign futures reduced their positions in short orders by 1,159 lots; last Thursday, foreign futures reduced their positions in short orders by 666 lots, and last Friday, foreign futures increased their positions in short orders by 72 lots! There was no data on foreign futures in the market yesterday on Monday! Overall, the recent foreign futures are still mainly short orders! Unfavorable to the continued rebound of the stock market! I really can’t understand the practice of foreign futures now! It is also possible that foreign futures are in the middle line! so even if there is a rebound from March 5 to mid-March! Then, there is a high probability of rising and falling again in mid-March! ]
4, technical aspects
1, yesterday, major indexes opened high under positive stimulation, and after the early trading rebounded, the index continued to rebound in the afternoon! Yesterday's market was a collective rebound after a recent sharp drop, with sectors and individual stocks rebounding by 80%. It is expected that after the sharp rise, the market will face differentiation again! From the perspective of technical indicators, after the daily KDJ index of the Shanghai Composite Index passivated and died after a dead cross at a high level, it is currently in a state where the bottom of diverges from . After the red column of the MACD index of the same level is shortened, it also begins to die cross after it is shortened. However, the short-term MACD starts to diverge at the bottom in 15, 30, and 60 minutes, and the short-term market also needs to rebound!
2. From the moving average system, all major indexes are currently around the 60 moving average, and this position is also easy to rebound! In the short term, the index is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 3480-3700, and it is an opportunity to retrace the short term and confirm the opportunity, but it is expected that the market space in March will not be too large! It is difficult to break through the previous high of 3730 points for the time being. At the same time, you should pay attention to the risks after mid-March! In , pay attention to avoiding high-priced stocks with poor performance. At present, the main line is mainly focused on the concept of meetings and the 14th Five-Year Plan at the bottom! But try to lurk as much as possible, not suitable for chasing highs! The rotation of the sector is accelerating, and it is easy to get trapped even if you chase highs! Pay attention to dips, band operation is the best strategy! Pay attention to avoid stocks with a cumulatively high gains and control positions.
5, Market observation
Avoid the risks of extremely poor stocks: The most important event in the market is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges solicit opinions on the new delisting rules. Judging from the solicitation of opinions, the new delisting rules have added new market value to delisting. One is that the total market value is less than 300 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, and the delisting of the face value is changed to "1 yuan delisting". This may not be good news for low-priced stocks and low-market targets, but it will increase the market delisting rate; secondly, there are changes in financial indicators. For example, a single net profit indicator becomes a reference for the combination of indicators. In addition, the new standards stipulated by the new regulations simplify the delisting process and improve the efficiency of delisting.
6, Industry Information
1, ethylene glycol price hits a new high, and the peak demand season is coming further pushing up the price
On March 1, the domestic ethylene glycol futures price hit a new high, and the May contract of ethylene glycol futures rose 2.39% to close at 6032 yuan/ton, and the highest intraday increase to 6069 yuan/ton. On February 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol was 6,435 yuan/ton, up 33.23% month-on-month. Since the beginning of this year, futures prices have increased by 20%, and the cumulative spot prices have increased by nearly 40%. According to statistics, the current gross profit of coal-to-ethylene glycol market is 1,934.5 yuan/ton, which has reached a new high in more than two years. The trend of ethylene glycol in February was booming, and the positive fundamentals combined with macro-promotion and cost-driven have become the main driving force for this upward trend.
2, the domestic epoxy resin market price soared, and there are still expectations of rising in the future
According to industry website data, the domestic epoxy resin market price has accelerated and hit a new high recently. Among them, solid epoxy resin soared by nearly 20% in a single week. Specifically, as of the closing of last weekend, the mainstream price of liquid resin market in East China was 31,000-32,000 yuan/ton (delivered in acceptance barrels). The negotiated price of solid epoxy resin is around 26,500 yuan/ton (accepted and delivered).At present, the supply of major manufacturers is tight, and the manufacturers are in good condition to accept orders. Some large manufacturers have closed down and are reluctant to sell, and the market shows that the supply is in short supply. In addition, epoxy resin raw materials have also risen one after another. The reference price of the main raw material bisphenol A in East China has risen to around 24,500 yuan/ton, and has continuously set new historical high price records. epoxychlorohydrin market rose narrowly, and the price of epoxychlorohydrin in the East China market was around 11,000 yuan/ton.
3, the fundamentals of the papermaking industry improved significantly, and leading paper companies increased their quotations
March 1, the prices of multiple varieties of paper rose. Leading paper companies such as Chenming and Sun have significantly increased their price increase based on the previous price increase letter, with an increase of 500 yuan to 1,700 yuan per ton. Currently, the quotation price of mainstream white cardboard brands is 9,800 yuan to 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of double tape paper has increased by 500 yuan to 1,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.64% to 16.39% from the 28th. Recently, the market maintained bullish expectations for paper prices. Judging from terminal indicators such as inventory and order situation, fundamentals have improved significantly. Leading paper mills have financial and technological advantages and are investing in the construction of new raw material production bases. They are not only not afraid of the pressure of rising costs, but also have increased profit margins compared with small and medium-sized paper mills. The market share is expected to further concentrate in the head in the future.
4, China Eastern Airlines and COMAC signed the first batch of C919 aircraft purchase contracts, and the industrial chain welcomed opportunities
On March 1, Eastern Airlines and COMAC officially signed the C919 large passenger aircraft purchase contract, and the first batch of five aircraft were introduced. China Eastern Airlines will become the world's first airline to operate C919 large passenger aircraft. COMAC said that the C919 has accumulated 815 orders! The C919 large passenger aircraft is a large jet passenger aircraft developed by my country and has independent intellectual property rights. Zhang Chao of AVIC Securities pointed out that with the growth and growth of the domestic large aircraft industry, a number of excellent companies with international advanced levels will be created and my country's own civil aircraft industry chain will be formed.
5, production capacity is tight, large factories are concentrated in pulling goods, and mobile phone chips are out of stock
Since the second half of 2020, chip shortages have increased significantly. As the market with the largest consumption of semiconductor chips, mobile phone chips are undoubtedly the most affected. According to the latest reports, the main chip of Qualcomm is currently out of stock, including power supply and RF devices. In addition, the delivery period of the entire series of Qualcomm materials has been extended to more than 30 weeks, and the delivery period of CSR Bluetooth audio chips has reached more than 33 weeks. In the era of
5G, the design and production complexity of mobile phone products has been greatly improved, and the usage of some components has also increased significantly. At present, the supply and demand gap of these components continues to expand, and manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to ensure supply. The impact of the epidemic has led to the rise of the mobile device industry, with strong terminal demand and production capacity not effectively expanded. "Chip out of stock" is now a global problem. Xiaomi China President Lu Weibing said: "This year, chips are out of stock, not short of shortage, but extremely shortage." Institutional personnel pointed out that in addition to the tight production capacity, manufacturers such as Huawei concentrated on pulling goods to occupy a large amount of production capacity of global foundries, and many Android brand customers such as Xiaomi increased the procurement of chips in order to compete for market share, resulting in serious imbalance in chip supply and demand, which is also the reason for chip shortage.
(For investors' reference only, it does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so investing should be cautious.)
7. Information navigation
Transportation: Cultivate and strengthen modern logistics enterprises. The first order of the
C919 passenger aircraft in the world was officially launched and its first aircraft will be delivered within the year.
production capacity is closely superimposed, and large factories are concentrated in pulling goods, and mobile phone chips are completely out of stock.
researchers develop folding solar cells with high conversion efficiency.
Civil Aviation: Promote pilot demonstration work for the construction of new civil aviation infrastructure.
The fundamentals of the papermaking industry have improved significantly, and leading paper companies have significantly increased their quotations.
China Eastern Airlines and COMAC signed the first batch of C919 aircraft purchase contracts, and the industrial chain welcomed opportunities.
New version of the National Medical Insurance Catalog Three domestic anti-cancer drugs have all been reduced in price, with a maximum reduction of 85%.
National Power Grid: Maximize the development and utilization of new energy such as wind power, solar power generation, etc.
Medical Insurance Bureau: Strengthen dynamic monitoring of vaccination progress and fund use.
Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: It will increase its efforts to inspect market chaos and institutional compliance.
National Energy Group, State Power Investment Corporation, Huaneng , and China National Nuclear Corporation have issued 11.1 billion carbon neutral bonds.
State Grid released an action plan for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it will plan to build 7 ultra-high voltage DCs, with a new transmission capacity of 56 million kilowatts.
According to the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February, sales of various types of vehicles in my country's heavy truck market exceeded 110,000, a year-on-year increase of about 200%.
As of March 1, 5 ferrous metal theme index funds have been issued this year, with a total fundraising target amount exceeding 10 billion yuan.
htmlOn March 1, the power grid company issued a carbon peak and carbon neutrality action plan, which proposed to vigorously develop clean energy and maximize the development of new energy such as wind power and solar power generation.The spokesperson for the Industry and Information Technology said that we should vigorously promote the high-quality development of the information and communication industry, and this year we should orderly promote the construction of 5G networks, accelerate the layout of 6G, promote network optimization and upgrade, and ensure network security.
8, [New Stock Subscription]
Zhongwang Software: subscription code 787083, issue price 150.50 yuan per share, issue price-to-earnings ratio 119.49 times.
[The above content is not based on buying and selling, the stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing! 】
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