July 6, according to the market trend chart, the exchange rate of offshore RMB has been falling recently. From July 5, as of 14:18 on July 6, in two trading days, the offshore RMB exchange rate has fallen by 245 points and has returned to above 6.7000 to 6.7084. What is this? At the same time, does this mean that the offshore RMB exchange rate will fall sharply?
Regarding this issue, the editor thinks that in recent days, the offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to fall and has returned to above 6.7000, mainly because the dollar index "spicked" yesterday.
According to the market trend chart, yesterday, the US dollar index rose sharply, soaring from 105.189 to 106.537. Throughout the day, the US dollar index rose by 1348 points, that is, the US dollar appreciated by 1.28%.
In other words, recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to fall and has returned to above 6.7000, mainly because the "surge" of the US dollar index has increased the pressure on the depreciation of the offshore RMB.
Then, next, if the US dollar index further rises, does this mean that the offshore RMB will fall sharply? Regarding this question, the editor may not necessarily. To be honest, the offshore RMB is still very strong.
For example, yesterday, the US dollar index soared by 1348 points, while the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by only 199 points. In other words, in the future, even if the US dollar index rises further, the offshore RMB exchange rate may not necessarily fall sharply.
What's more, the continued rise of the US dollar index is also to be discussed. Yesterday, there were two reasons for the surge in the US dollar index: 1. . The market expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in July 275 basis points has heated up again. 2. Recently, with the release of economic data from various countries in June, market expectations for a global recession have continued to heat up, which has increased the demand for safe-haven assets for US dollar fixed income assets.
Recently, the continued decline in yields of US 10-year Treasury bonds may indicate that US dollar assets are favored by investors. According to the market trend chart, from June 14 to July 6, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell from 3.479 to 2.818.
Everyone knows that the yield of US bond is exactly the opposite of the price trend of US bonds, that is, US bond yields rise, US bond prices fall, or US bond yields fall, and US bond prices rise.
Recently, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds has continued to fall, which shows that investors are continuing to buy US 10-year Treasury bonds for safe-haven.
However, nowadays, although the Fed's market expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike in July have heated up again and the demand for safe-haven assets for US dollar fixed income assets has increased, US stock has not fallen sharply, which shows that some investors are betting that the Fed's interest rate hike in July may not be as radical as market expectations.
According to the market trend chart, yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 129.44 points, or 0.42%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 194.39 points, or 1.75%, and the S&P 500 index rose 6.06 points, or 0.16%.
Yesterday, the performance of the three major U.S. stock indexes may indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July is not necessarily very high. In addition, the economic data released by the United States recently "deteriorated", which may soften the Federal Reserve's willingness to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July.
To be honest, in the first half of 2022, the global inflation pressure was "high", not caused by the excessive currency issuance, but also caused by resource-based countries' reduction in energy supply and the blockage of transportation channels.
In 2022, as market expectations for the global economic decline heat up, if energy-based countries do not increase their energy supply, then once the global economy enters a period of depression, their losses will be greater. Therefore, in the future, with the decline in energy prices, the Federal Reserve's willingness to raise interest rates will gradually soften.
Recently, the fall in international oil prices to around $100 per barrel may illustrate this problem. Therefore, the editor feels that the continued rise of the US dollar index is also subject to debate. Therefore, the editor believes that the offshore RMB exchange rate may not fall sharply in the future.
In addition, recently, the economy of the euro zone has also "deteriorated", which has led to a continuous depreciation of the euro relative to the offshore RMB, which will also cool down the market expectations of a sharp decline in the offshore RMB exchange rate.
According to the market trend chart, from July 1 to July 6, at 15:40, in four trading days, the euro against the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 1,333 points, that is, the offshore RMB appreciated by 1.90% relative to the euro.
Therefore, the editor feels that under the influence of these factors, even though the offshore RMB exchange rate continues to fall, it has returned to above 6.7000 in recent days, this does not necessarily mean that the offshore RMB exchange rate will fall sharply. What do you think about this? Is it consistent with the editor's point of view?
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-