Fujii Akio: 2022 is also passing very quickly, and a month is about to pass in a blink of an eye. This year is the big year of elections. Japan has Senate elections. Overseas, South Korea and France will hold presidential elections, while the United States will usher in a midterm election. In addition, although it is still too early to mention it now, the selection of people who have become face to the Japanese financial industry should have ushered in the final stage at this time next year.
The term of office of the current President of the Bank of Japan (Central Bank) Haruhiko Kuroda will expire on April 8, 2023. Kuroda, who became president in 2013, was re-elected in 2018, serving for 8 years and 10 months, and has become the longest-serving president of the Bank of Japan. With a second re-election unlikely, next spring will be the first time that the Bank of Japan has changed its president in 10 years. The financial market has also begun to turn its attention to the "Post Kuroda Era".
Bank of Japan was founded 140 years ago in 1882 (Miji 15). In this long history, there are all kinds of people who sit in the president's seat. The first president, Shigetsu Yoshihara, went to study in the United States and Britain from the Satsuma clan. During this period, he was transferred to a diplomat because of the Meiji Restoration. Later, he worked in the Japanese Province of Omen (now the Ministry of Finance and the Department of Finance) and finally became the president of the Bank of Japan. The second president, Tomota Tetsunosuke, was once a disciple of Makushi Katsuki Katsuki. He also studied abroad and served as a diplomat. In the early days when Japan introduced the central bank system from overseas, the "international" president showed off his skills.
Later, the Bank of Japan also used big names in the economic field as president, such as the fourth president was Yasuke Iwasaki, the second-generation leader of the Mitsubishi Zaibatsu. There are also people like Takahashi Shi Qing was sold as a slave while studying in the United States. Later, he became the Prime Minister of Japan and the Prime Minister of Japan. He was finally killed in the "March 26 Incident". He worked in the Bank of Japan for a total of 16 years, including during his tenure as president.
Tian Shangdeng, who took office as president shortly after the end of World War II, had directly negotiated with MacArthur, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces, and worked hard for Japan's post-war revival. He was once called the "pope" because of his huge influence in the financial and industrial circles.
10,000 Tatsudo set an 8 and a half years record for president. Kuroda Haruhiko surpassed this record last year, and the next thing to consider is Kuroda's successor.
Currently President of Bank of Japan Kuroda Haruhiko
10 years ago, the personnel arrangements of the president of Bank of Japan were staged an unprecedented process. In the House election at the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe regained power from the Japanese Democratic Party. In the election war, he demanded the implementation of a monetary easing policy, saying that "the printing press must be transferred, and the Japanese bank must print money without restrictions." After the Abe government came to power, Shirakawa Kazuaki, who had little left in office as president, set a 2% price increase target and issued a joint statement between the Japanese government and the Japanese Bank.
then appointed Kuroda Haruhiko, a former financial officer who has always been critical of the bank's policies, and president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as the new president.
At that time, as the condition for the presidential candidate, Shinzo Abe proposed that he must be "a person who can implement a bold monetary easing policy", and at the same time, he must "have the ability to become an international financial bandit gang." The then financial minister Taro Aso also added a condition, that is, "be able to engage in organizational operations."
The ability and organizational operation experience of becoming an international financial bandit gang are considered to be a speech made by Kuroda Haruhiko. So what conditions do the next president of the Bank of Japan need to meet?
During Kuroda's tenure as president, Japan escaped the deflation of continued falling prices, but the 2% price target has not been completed yet. On the other hand, as quantitative easing continues, the Japanese Bank holds more than 40% of the issuance balance. Although Japan's banks did not directly accept government bonds as they did during wartime, as the government's fiscal deficit expanded, Japan's banks did increase their purchases of government bonds. Under the auspices of President Kuroda, it can be said that Japan's integration of fiscal and financial policies has taken a step forward.
The next president's topic is to coordinate with the Japanese government to find large-scale monetary easing exports while maintaining the stability of the real economy and prices. This can also be said to be a path to strive to restore fiscal and market laws while maintaining growth.
In order to cope with inflation, the United States has accelerated its pace of tightening financial policies, and the financial market is becoming unstable. Policies are becoming increasingly difficult to control.
Will there be another president from a Japanese bank appear after 10 years? (Vice President Masaki Yumiya and Yamato Sengen Chairman, former Vice President Hiro Nakazo)
Currently, in the view of people related to financial markets, the strong candidate for the next president of Bank of Japan is the current vice president Masaki Yumiya who supports Kuroda and his former Yamato Sengen Chairman Hiro Nakazo. If the goal is not a major financial policy adjustment like that 10 years ago, it is understandable that the names of the two people who are familiar with the previous policy and who are from the Bank of Japan are mentioned.
For Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who proposed new capitalism, the personnel of the Japanese Bank will be a crucial decision to economic policy. Will the new government change compared with the two governments of Abe and Yoshihide Suga, which continue to send the Reflationist to the Bank of Japan review committee members? The touchstone is the successor of Takao Takaioka, the re-inflation school deliberation committee member, whose term expires in July. In addition, the policy formulation of most of the policies involved in the Bank of Japan President Kuroda and whether Director Uchida, who has expired in April, can be held again have attracted much attention from relevant personnel. The outpost battle surrounding the president's personnel has begun.
Maekawa Haruo, who served as president of the Bank of Japan from the late 1970s to the first half of the 1980s, likes to use the word "玉子" to illustrate the role of the Bank of Japan. The geese slave is a big goose among the geese that looked up and guarded around to prevent their companions from being attacked by foreign enemies. It is the responsibility of the central bank to predict the economic situation and take necessary measures decisively.
, known as the "pope", also left a sentence:
"The president of the Japanese bank cannot be as detached as in the past. Because there is not only the Dazi Province, but also the Economic Planning Department, and it also strives to gain the understanding of the parliament and even the general public. If you do not do this, at least 'the neutrality of the central bank should be maintained', etc., rather than just repeating what is written in the scholar's books" (excerpted from "On the Presidents of the Bank of Japan of All Ages" by Toshihiko Yoshino).
is not trapped in a state of sanity, but takes necessary measures decisively - foresight and decisiveness may be the unchanging conditions that the president of the Bank of Japan should have.
The author of this article is the chairman of the Nikkei Shimbun (Chinese version: Nikkei Chinese website) Akio Fujii
Copyright Statement: All rights reserved by Nikkei Shimbun. Reproduction or partial copying may not be made without authorization. Violators will be prosecuted. Nikkei Chinese website https://cn.nikkei.com
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-