A new round of statistical results released by the US Department of Commerce shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the "month-on-month annualized growth rate" of the US economy remained unchanged as previously announced "decline of 1.6%, but the year-on-year real growth rate changed - it was lowered to 3.5%.
downward adjustment was 0.7 percentage points compared with the previously announced 4.2%; at the same time, the US authorities also adjusted the year-on-year economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year from the previously announced 2.2% to 1.9%. However, the annualized growth rate on the previous month is still the decline of 0.6%, and remains unchanged.
reported that the new statistical results are based on a more complete data source, adjusting the consumption expenditure of US residents and enterprises upwards, and adjusting exports, private investment and official expenditure downwards. In other words, consumption has a stronger support for the US economy than previously thought.
economic growth rate adjusted downward, but GDP was raised
At the end of August this year, the U.S. authorities announced that the year-on-year economic growth rate in the first quarter was 4.2%, 2.2% in the second quarter, and 3.2% in the first half of the year. However, after a new round of statistics and accounting, the economic growth rate in the first quarter was lowered to 3.5%, 1.9% in the second quarter, and 2.7% in the first half of the year.
Since the economic growth rate has been lowered, is the US GDP also lower than previously announced? The result was exactly the opposite. The nominal GDP in the first quarter of this year was raised to US$6010.7 billion, up US$29.7 billion from the previously announced US$598.1 billion.
U.S.'s nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2022 was also raised from "US$628.61 billion announced at the end of August this year to US$635.3 billion", up by US$66.9 billion. The new GDP value of the United States in the first half of the year has thus expanded to US$12.36 trillion, setting a record high.
After using new statistical results, the global advantage of the US economy has further expanded - compared with my country's US$8.678 trillion, the leading margin is close to US$3.69 trillion; it is about 5.63 times that of Japan's economic scale and about 6 times that of Germany (as shown in the figure below).
The economic growth rate has been lowered, why has GDP become higher?
The new statistical report stated that the US authorities not only adjusted the economic values in the first and second quarters of this year, but also adjusted the economic values from 2016 to 2021, and "the actual economic growth rate in recent years is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previously announced."
adopts new accounting standards, and the actual economic growth rate of the United States from 2016 to 2021 "expanded to 2.1%, while the previous average was 1.9%. Especially in the second quarter of last year, the year-on-year growth rate of US GDP was raised to 12.8%, and reached 1.4% in the first quarter.
It is this more "thick base" that has caused the US economic growth rate in the first two quarters of 2022 to be lowered, but the completed nominal GDP still hit a new high. How do netizens see the issue of re-adjustment of the US economy?
For this adjustment, Nansheng believes that it has two different impacts on the United States. On the one hand, it will allow the international community to see the huge size of the US consumer market more clearly, and encourage international capital and multinational companies to pay more attention to the internal development logic and related rules of the US consumer market.
On the other hand, the current U.S. inflation rate remains high, and the price increase exceeds the growth of income, which has had a negative impact on the long-lasting consumption of U.S. residents. Once inflation substantially affects consumer confidence, the impact on the US economy will be more obvious.
Of course, the US economic data has been constantly being adjusted, and the relevant statistical accounting rules are more refined. If there is a relatively obvious downturn in the future, consumption, investment, import and export can be corrected again, and the result may still be beyond our expectations. This article is written by Nan Sheng. Please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-