In the past few days, the strong typhoon "Plum Blossom" on the 12th has come to the front, touching the nerves of all parties. As much as the strong typhoon, there is also the recent "falling" sea transportation market.
Thanks to its obvious cost advantage, global sea freight accounts for more than 90% of the total trade transportation volume. As one of the most important modes of shipping, container shipping accounts for more than 80% of the maritime trade volume, which has a huge impact on global trade.
According to public data, the latest issue of Shanghai export container comprehensive freight index released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 2562.12 points, down 10% from the previous period and has been falling for 13 consecutive weeks. In addition, the Deluri World Container Freight Index (WCI) has declined for 28 consecutive weeks, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index is currently at a low level in the past two years.
Generally speaking, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for global marine container transportation, and sea freight prices will also "rise". Why does sea freight prices not only do not rise seasonally this year, but have seen a rare and continuous decline? For Chinese foreign trade companies that have suffered from "hard work" in a box, will this decline be a positive for reducing import and export logistics costs? Whether
is a good thing is not only the real reason for the decline in sea freight costs, but also comprehensively consider the extent of its decline. Only a moderate decline in freight rates can help eliminate the "fixed fire" in the global shipping market.
Since the beginning of this year, the global container transportation market has generally continued the market since the second half of last year. Container shipping prices began to fluctuate after reaching their peak at the beginning of this year. Especially due to the superposition of factors such as high inflation rates in European and American countries, geopolitical conflicts in some regions, and the continued spread of the epidemic, the demand for global shipping market has shrunk significantly. In addition, imbalance in international capacity allocation and reduced orders in shipbuilding market have also had a certain impact on shipping prices.
It should be pointed out that this round of shipping prices continues to fall, which in a sense is also a phased pullback to the "abnormal high" of shipping prices last year, which is conducive to pulling the soaring freight rates back to a relatively reasonable price level. In other words, it is reasonable to have a moderate decline in international shipping prices at present, but the continued plunge or even a cliff-like decline is not conducive to the healthy development of in the entire shipping market. Although the proportion of shipping costs in the entire foreign trade cost is not the highest, the violent fluctuations in freight will inevitably be transmitted to the foreign trade market, which will then affect the smooth operation of the entire foreign trade industry chain and supply chain.
What is the impact of the plummeting sea freight fee on foreign trade? It is too early to draw conclusions. On the surface, the shrinking shipping market is the direct reason for the plummeting sea freight costs, but the deeper reason is also the changes in the foreign demand market. Compared with the explosive growth of the container shipping market last year, although its market growth rate declined in the first half of this year, the overall container shipping trade volume is still at a high market. However, since the third quarter, inflation pressure in Europe and the United States has continued to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in market demand. In addition, the large amount of stockpiled in stocks have remained to be digested, and many importers have to reduce or even cancel product orders. The "order shortage" may further highlight in the future.
A questionnaire survey conducted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade shows that the vast majority of foreign trade companies believe that they are currently facing difficulties in reducing orders. The latest issue of China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.4%, although it rebounded by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, it is still below the boom and bust line, indicating that market demand is still relatively weak. As extreme climates such as high temperatures and droughts are alleviated, PMI is expected to rebound and improve, but traditional overseas markets have entered the end of inventory replenishment, and foreign demand in the fourth quarter is likely to remain weak, which may lower the overall growth rate of foreign trade.
Overall, the risks and challenges faced by my country's foreign trade have increased significantly at present and in the future. Against this background, the State Council Executive Meeting recently launched a number of targeted policy measures, further consolidating the foundation for stable growth of foreign trade from the aspects of setting up a comprehensive cross-border e-commerce pilot zone, opening up foreign trade enterprises to grasp order channels, and providing exchange rate hedging and cross-border RMB settlement services for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises.For foreign trade enterprises, the rise and fall of shipping fees should certainly be paid attention to, but the most urgent task is to continue to make full use of policy dividends, reduce costs and increase efficiency with a more complete supply chain layout and market expansion, and enhance competitiveness with more advantageous product strength.
Author: Gu Yang
Producer: Qiao Shenying
Edited by: Zhang Shuo
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