2019 cold year, the rotor compressor industry temporarily left the high growth period and returned rationally. The era of product competition in the true sense has arrived. According to industry online data, the cumulative production of rotor compressors in 2019 was 206.177 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%; sales were 207.195 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66%.
2009-2019 cold rotor compressor industry production and sales scale trend and growth (10,000 units)
has risen first and then declined throughout the year. Affected by the relatively aggressive delivery strategies of some whole machine companies with goal-oriented and the early export rhythm caused by the Sino-US trade dispute, the production and sales of rotor compressors were in an upward trend from November to March 2019 cold. The industry's downward turning point began to appear in April. After that, with the combined superposition of multiple factors such as the continuous high temperature weather, the downward real estate prosperity and the relatively weak demand for air conditioning consumption, it finally ended with a slight decline.
▼ The scale effect is becoming more and more obvious. The market is concentrated in leading enterprises.
Rotor compressor production capacity has continued to expand in the past decade. Especially in the cold year of 2018, driven by the prosperity of the downstream air-conditioning market. Faced with supply tension and production line structure restrictions, rotor compressors have accelerated the pace of capacity expansion. Above the high base of the previous cold year, another 24.5 million capacity was added in the cold year of 2019, with a total production capacity of 265.14 million units. The 24.5 million China-US Zhida added 8 million, Lingda added 10 million, Haili added 3 million, Ruizhi added 3 million, and LG added 500,000. Judging from the market share of
, the share of the top 3 companies in the industry has continued to expand over the past 10 years, and now it has reached 71.6%, leaving the market space for other companies is becoming increasingly limited. GMCC, the leader in the industry, performed well, with sales exceeding 70 million units in 2019, with a market share of 34.8%, and a domestic sales market share of up to 37%.
2009-2019 Cold Year Rotor Compressor Enterprise Top3 Brand Concentration Trend
From this we can see that the market resources of the rotor compressor industry are rapidly moving closer to leading enterprises. These enterprises rely on their strong scale advantages and rely on effective resources to continuously reduce unit product production and R&D costs, expand market control, improve risk resistance, expand market share, gradually widen the gap with other enterprises, and enter a virtuous cycle. In this environment, it is particularly important for other small and medium-sized enterprises to find new industry variables in the new era.
▼ export market is expanding steadily, striving to focus on local market advantages
rotor compressor export scale has been increasing year by year, with a 12.8% 10-year compound growth rate from 2009 to 2019. The main driving force of comes from the acceleration of urbanization and product updates in Asia.
-point region, Thailand and India are still major countries in demand for rotor compressors. In the future, Thailand and India will become important hubs for air conditioners and compressor re-export. In addition, Thailand has invested heavily in government projects and the construction of large apartment buildings, and the demand for household central air conditioners has risen sharply, bringing new growth opportunities for rotor compressors. Judging from the growth rate of
, Brazil's cold-year growth rate reached 36.6%, ranking first, mainly due to the gradual recovery of Brazil's economy, the continuous expansion of the middle class, and the high temperature weather. In the future, with the rapid growth of global urban population, the number of air conditioners continues to rise, the gradual increase in energy conservation and environmental protection awareness, and the accelerated elimination of F-gas, the demand for replacement will increase sharply. In addition, the increase in import tariffs of various countries will lead to further expansion in the export scale of rotor compressors.
2019 cold rotor compressor export top 15 national scale and growth rate
To this end, all compressor companies strive to maintain local market advantages and stabilize export market share in the new development stage. Ruizhi has always maintained an absolute lead in the US and European markets. In 2019, Ruizhi accounted for 71% of the total number of compressors exported to the US in cold-term, and the European market reached 58%. The main driving force comes from Ruizhi compressor's small and low-cost advantages, playing a leading role in the application of window machines, mobile air conditioners and dehumidifiers. In the cold year of 2019, LG became the third rotor compressor company to maintain positive growth after Meizhi and Haili by relying on exports. Its exports remain first in South Korea, Israel, Slovenia, and Bangladesh. After mass production of LG Thailand's inverter compressor, it will further help LG increase its South American market share.
▼ policy-oriented structure upgrades, keep up with the pace, enter the
2019 cold-year rotor compressor industry product structure has undergone major changes, first of all, the share of frequency conversion products has increased rapidly. On June 14, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and seven other departments jointly issued the "Green and High-Efficiency Refrigeration Action Plan", encouraging enterprises to significantly increase the supply ratio of green high-end products such as frequency conversion and precise temperature (humidity) control.
rotor compressor companies follow national policies to adjust their product structure and deploy variable frequency and high-energy-efficient products. In 2019, the proportion of variable frequency compressors in the entire industry increased to 46.2%. Among them, the scale of Haili frequency conversion products has increased significantly. The intelligent manufacturing project of Haili Nanchang factory was put into production, and the frequency conversion production capacity has increased. In addition, the share of export frequency conversion products has increased. The total sales scale of frequency conversion rotor compressors in 2019 was 9.52 million units, an increase of 44.7% year-on-year. In terms of frequency conversion products, Mitsubishi Electric's frequency conversion product share has reached 90%, and AVIC Sanyo continues to lay out high-end frequency conversion products, and the current frequency conversion ratio has increased to 75.7%.
High-performance compressors are the key to the efficient frequency conversion of air conditioners. Faced with this structural change, compressor companies focus on upgrading products, increasing the research and development of high-efficiency products, and accelerating the mass production of related products; on the other hand, what opportunities do they have to look for low-energy-efficient fixed-speed products? The fixed-speed products currently have price advantages. First, the township market demand is large, and the export market is also in the export market. Some places with low energy efficiency requirements still need fixed-speed compressors.
Another change is the change in the structure of refrigerant , and various rotor compressor companies have begun to switch to R32 in full. 2019 cold-year R32 rotor compressor sales were 69.986 million units, and the market share has expanded to 33.8%, and the R32 share of some enterprises has reached half.
Currently, R22 refrigerant is gradually being eliminated, R410A share is being squeezed, R32 compressor market share is growing rapidly, and other refrigerants, especially R290, have also begun to gradually reach a certain scale. R32 air conditioners are currently mainly concentrated in foreign markets, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and some countries and regions in Asia. In the future, global demand for R32 rotor compressors will continue to grow.
points, the current share of Lingda R32 refrigerant compressors has exceeded half, Panasonic Wanbao R32 share is close to 50%. In addition, Ruizhi R290 rotor compressors grew rapidly in the cold year of 2019.
▼ taps potential new applications and chooses the development gap market
In recent years, the scale of rotor compressors in non-home air conditioners has continued to expand. In 2019, the supply of rotor compressors to household air conditioners was 17.68 million units, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year. Among them, the share of application fields such as heat pump heating, refrigeration and refrigeration, and light commercial air conditioning continues to expand, and the share of application of dehumidifiers, heat pump water heaters, and heat pump clothes dryers is squeezed.
compressors for heat pump heating water machines have been greatly reduced. Fortunately, the sales of heat fans are still good due to the price advantage, which has driven the positive growth of sales of the entire heat pump heating compressor. Affected by real estate regulation, the performance of light commercial air conditioning machines is average, but the effect of rotor replacing vortex in multiple online applications is significant. In addition, the development of the two connected modules has also driven the scale expansion of rotors in this application field. Driven by the rapid growth of small business formats such as boutique supermarkets and community supermarkets and the rapid development of new retail, commercial refrigeration has maintained a stable growth trend in recent years. In 2019, rotor compressors for freezing and refrigeration maintained a 21% growth.
In other fields, there are some small size but large potential segments worth paying attention to, such as swimming pool heat pump compressors, automotive air conditioning compressors, cold storage and refrigerated vehicle compressors.
- swimming pool heat pump: With the increase in fitness centers and swimming pools, the demand for products has increased, and variable frequency large-cooled rotor compressors have a promising development in this application field.
- Vehicle Air Conditioner: In 2018, my country's truck production was 3.79 million, of which 1.11 million heavy truck production, and about 380,000 parking air conditioners were produced. Currently, there are very few professional air conditioners, and the switching space is expected. In addition, the demand for RV air conditioners and yacht air conditioners is constantly expanding. This year, the demand for rotor compressors for US RV air conditioners is expected to be 510,000 units.
- refrigeration equipment: In recent years, my country's cold chain logistics has continued to develop well, and the number of refrigerated trucks has maintained an average annual growth of more than 10%, which was 158,000 vehicles in 2018. In addition, the number of cold storage construction in the production area has increased, and new projects are constantly developing towards energy saving and intelligence in system design, technological innovation, and application of new equipment, which have brought new market opportunities to rotor compressors.
(Author: Jiang Yitong)
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