htmlOn August 1, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, reducing the federal benchmark interest rate to 2.00%-2.25%.
This is the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the global financial crisis in 2008.
What does the Fed rate cut mean?
A few days ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said: " The current trade friction problem has brought an impact on the US economy. There are signs of weakness in business and manufacturing. Rate cuts are needed to prevent risks. ."
In a simple way, it is that the United States feels that it is on the verge of the economic crisis and people are about to die. We need to "take some drugs" in advance to stimulate the interest rate cuts. The rate cut is the "drug" taken by the United States.
For individuals and enterprises, banks lower interest rates, which means that the pressure to borrow money is less. The government is encouraging everyone to borrow money to buy a house with loans and to raise funds for enterprises to pay less interest.
As long as everyone is willing to borrow money and is willing to borrow money, it can stimulate investment and consumption and maintain the US economy without recession.
But everything has advantages and disadvantages. The bubble in the US stock market is already very large, and a large part of investors' money will enter the stock market. While the economy is stimulated, the bubble in the stock market will also further expand. When the bubble bursts in the future, it will be more tragic than it is now.
However, Trump doesn't care about these. For him, re-election is the top priority. As long as he is in office, the data is good, and after re-election, it will be broken. What does it have to do with him, Trump?
After I die, don’t you care about the flood?
The economy is about 10 years in a cycle, the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008... The danger of the US stock market is imminent. As long as the Federal Reserve takes one wrong step, the tragedy of 2008 is likely to happen again.
I don’t listen to Jacky Cheung , I understand that I am already a prisoner.
Jacky Cheung has a nickname called "Fugitive Nemesis", because every time he holds a concert, the police can often steadily catch fugitives wanted online.
and so every time Jacky Cheung holds a concert, the police will post joking on Weibo very naughty.
At the end of last year, more than 280 fugitives were arrested at Jacky Cheung's concert. From the end of 2016 to the end of 2018, had in just two years, and Jacky Cheung actually held
Look at these games at the end of last year, there was almost no rest. There was an average of one game in 3 days throughout the year. Even if the throat and body are so strong that it is difficult for you to bear the workload.
Jacky Cheung is already 58 years old and can't stand the tossing. The reason why he works so hard to make money by holding concerts is actually due to life.
As early as 2007, Jacky Cheung planned to quit the music industry and live a comfortable life.
As a result, when Jacky Cheung came to the bank to deposit, he was persuaded by the bank staff and invested his money in a real estate bond with a yield of 10%.
is the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, which is called Lehman Brothers .
September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt , which was not only the largest investment bankruptcy case in US history, but also became the prelude to the global financial tsunami in 2008.
Jacky Cheung has been in trouble for eight lifetimes.
The savings invested by Jacky Cheung have gone back, and he can't live a peaceful life anymore. In desperation, Jacky Cheung had to come back and make money.
In 2008, in video advertisements of major office buildings in Hong Kong, Jacky Cheung, who had not appeared for a long time, New Year's promotional videos shot by Jacky Cheung for an amusement park in Hong Kong.
From then on, he began to hold concerts frequently, participate in movies, and shoot advertisements.
looks very active on the surface and can also help the police catch fugitives, but who knows the pain in Jacky Cheung?
Not only Jacky Cheung, but also a large number of Hong Kong stars.
This bond bought by Jacky Cheung was the "star financial management product" of that year, and many Hong Kong celebrities were recommended to buy this.
Rene Liu , who was originally going to retire, even lost all the money for retirement in the future, and he embarked on Jacky Cheung's old path. Even if he was injured on both knees, he had to make money by shooting advertisements.
Zeng Zhiwei The family was also cheated by Lehman Brothers. Zeng Zhiwei's daughter Zeng Baoyi cried on the blog: "This time I really lost all my money, and I'm afraid even my life will start over."
Recently, Zeng Zhiwei also joined the "Legendary Family Bucket", wearing armor and carrying the dragon-slaying sword, murmured " equipment recycling, freedom of transaction, true legend, true brother ".
Even such a celebrity with a net worth of tens of millions of yuan is also conceivable.
In 2008, in Hong Kong, people who failed investments on the rooftop were unable to think about it and jumped to end their lives. The suicide rate in in Hong Kong that year directly soared to the 18th place in the world.
Street newsstands were quickly sold out, and everyone was eager to know why my money was gone overnight? The root cause of the
problem lies in the United States.
Like Japan that lost twenty years ago, the money from the United States flows to real estate, and it is also my own initiative.
In 1981, Reagan came to power. In order to cope with the economic crisis, the United States began to launch U.S. bonds, raise interest rates, and print money crazily.
result, because the return rate of buying US bonds is too high, which is much more than the manufacturing industry that has worked hard to make money. In this case, if the bosses of American factories want to make money, they either move the factories to cheap places such as Southeast Asia and China to reduce costs, or close the factories to play finance and real estate, and have no other choice.
Give up manufacturing and play finance is like taking drugs. Don’t think of looking back once.
1990 oil crisis broke out, international oil prices soared 3 times, global GDP growth rate fell below 2%, and the economies of developed countries such as the United States and Britain fell into recession. In order to stimulate the economy, the United States can only continue to issue US bonds, print money, and take another drug.
Under the oil crisis, the "tracker" on the asphalt road
After several times of tossing, the United States has destroyed its manufacturing industry, and the industrial centers of the world have gradually shifted to Asia.
The rise of China, Japan and South Korea has taken over the manufacturing industry abandoned by the United States.
There is no manufacturing industry to invest in. The US capital has flocked to the Internet, housing market and stock markets, especially the housing market is the most stable. The Internet and bubble burst, but the US housing market has never been soft.
Real estate has changed from an industry to the belief of Americans .
In the early years of the 21st century, the US housing market was like a rocket, and as long as you buy it, you will make a profit.
There is a plot in the movie " Big Shorts ": when investor Eisman attended an international conference in Casino Las Vegas , he ran to the strip bar at night to look for excitement (a legal pornographic performance venue in the United States).
When chatting with an stripper , Eisman discovered that this porn practitioner who has no stable income and relies entirely on tips from customers to buy 5 apartments and an apartment with loan.
According to general rules, before banks and loan companies issue mortgages to applicants, they must review your credit, whether they have stable work, and what is the property situation.
But when Americans speculate on housing, no one reviews your credit, and no one reviews whether you can repay the loan on time.
The stripper filled in " Therapist " in the occupation column, so he easily got multiple loans. After mortgaged the house, he could get a new loan to buy more houses.
Even though her job is obviously a stripper who is in danger, the bank will still lend her money.
Some Americans even write their dog's name directly on, so they can still buy a house with a loan .
American TV is full of advertisements for mortgage loans: Whether you are a young couple who cannot afford the down payment, an individual businessman who is difficult to prove his income, or a family of three in debt, don’t care, come on, kid, I’ll lend you money.
For example, lawyers, doctors, Google programmers, such as lenders with stable jobs and high income, the bank lends money to him to buy a house with low risks and considerable returns. This is a high-quality loan that can be rated as A-level.
is a little worse for grassroots civil servants. Although their income is a little lower, their advantage lies in stability. As long as the government does not close, they can always get their wages. This is considered a general loan of B.
And those waiters and illegal immigrants who work odd jobs in restaurants have low incomes and unstable jobs, so they are likely to not be able to collect the loans. The mortgage loan that is lent to such people is called "subprime loan" . At that time, most of the mortgage advertisements on TV were like this C-level junk subprime loan .
How to encourage these people who don’t have much money to buy a house? The loan company came up with a "trick trick", "How many months are you free in the first few months, and the low interest rates in the first few years, you can earn ."
In their description, buying a house is like not spending money, you can go to you. The lower-level people who had no ability to buy a house were tempted to get into the car.
html Mexicans who earned $14,000 in annual income from $14,000 were easily borrowed to buy a house worth $724,000 without any penny.But if you carefully open the loan contract, you will find that although the first few months were interest-free or low interest rates, the monthly payment in the future will rise year by year until the leeks are cooked.
Once the supply is cut off and the payment cannot be paid, the house as collateral will be taken back to . You will have to sleep on the street .
However, in the unprecedented boom of the housing market, American people, loan companies, and bankers on Wall Street have blindfolded their eyes and opened a feast of real estate.
The then US President George W. Bush said excitedly: "Handling in a big house and owning your own house is the real American dream ."
Watching the real estate drive GDP to flourish, Bush Jr. smiled happily, and the Federal Reserve also continuously lowered interest rates and provided more fuel to this prosperous real estate era with fresh flowers.
Bush's ambitious "ownership housing" plan
Some people in the United States have keenly discovered the problems in the housing market.
In 2004, a man named Michael Burry took his wife and children to a high-end community in Silicon Valley to see the house.
Michael is a financial genius and founded from scratch hedge fund Sain Capital. When the US stock market fell 11.88% in 2001, his fund rose 55% against the market and became famous since then.
On the right is Michael in the movie "Big Short", and on the left is the real prototype of the same name
Michael took a fancy to a 6-bedroom high-end school district house in Silicon Valley. The owner offered 5.4 million yuan, and was directly countered to 3.8 million yuan, and the deal was made on the spot.
This time, the experience of buying a house with a big bargain made Burley keenly realize a problem: Since the current housing prices in are so rising, why did I cut the price of 1.6 million and the other party still sell it to me? If the house is not worried about selling, wouldn’t he just wait for someone who is willing to pay 5.4 million to sell it?
He thought about it and found that there was only one explanation for this phenomenon - the US real estate market is not as hot as it seems on the surface.
In other words, The US housing market has a big bubble, house prices are inflated, and not so many people buy houses .
Under the stimulation of the government's low interest rates and loose policies, lending companies have continuously lowered their loan standards and issued a large number of junk "subprime loans". The loans obtained by some borrowers are even higher than the price of the houses they purchased.
Lending companies and Wall Street bankers are not fools either. They know that these people have a worrying credit, and it is very likely that they will not be able to pay off their money after the supply is cut in the middle.
So they invented a new way to transfer risks: financial derivatives .
To give a simple example, after issuing a loan, it is equivalent to writing an IOU to the bank.
For banks, the risk of this IOU is very high, because as the person who writes the IOU, you are very unstable. If you lose your job and cannot pay back the money, the IOU will be ruined. The bank cannot guarantee that all loans can be recovered.
What should I do? The bank came up with a trick: sell these IOUs that are about to explode at any time first, and I will get the money first, and the risk will be given to the person who takes over the IOUs.
Just like when I was a child, the banker on Wall Street played a game of passing flowers by beating the drums and selling the IOUs in packages and sells them, and you will make a difference when you become a middleman, and you don’t have to bear the risk of defaulting on your mortgage.
But anyone who knows a little bit knows that this handkerchief is not a handkerchief, but a bomb.
Other banks will not keep these IOUs in their hands when they get them, but will try to sell them again.
This garbage "handkerchief" was packed layer by layer and lost for several rounds, and its volume began to become extremely large.
Originally, these stocks and "IOUs" had rating agencies. People who don't know the industry would look at the suggestions of the rating agencies. If they were evaluated to the 3A level, they would only buy with relatively low risk and high returns.
However, during this "handkerchief throw" game, these rating agencies were bought by Wall Street.
They knew that these "IOU bags" were just a piece of shit, but they still pinched their noses and labeled them as "3A high-quality and low-risk assets" for the sake of money.
Even if the shit is poured 100 times, it is still shit.
Investors around the world have been deceived by rating agencies such as Moody's , Fitch, and S&P in the United States. They really think that the bonds recommended by bank employees are 3A-level bonds with a 10% increase in return and a low risk, and are scrambling to buy these mortgage bonds.
is like Cai Xukun fans ikun spent a lot of money to buy tickets for the so-called "Kunkun Concert" and ran to watch it with anticipation, but it turned out that it was actually Xie Guangkun on the stage.
Jacky Cheung and a large number of Hong Kong stars became the takeovers in this way.
survey report shows that in 2007, the global financial derivatives amounted to US$596 trillion, and the scale of is 12 times the global GDP during the same period.
You can imagine how many bombs there are in
.
klm0Aware of the problem, Michael quickly ordered his employees to collect data from the US mortgage market and analyzed it for several days.
short-selling team also went to suburban towns to do field surveys. It was unexpectedly discovered that the vacancy rate of houses in many communities exceeded 95%.
Hundreds of houses, but only 4 people live in it. Many of the overdue notices in front of the door are piled up.
Michael realized that he had discovered a huge secret:
The loan default rate and the fraud rate of real estate securities in the United States have reached a historical high. This deformed bubble is on the verge of collapse. With just one stab, just a light stab will cause a landslide and a crack!
After realizing this secret, the first thing Michael thought of was not to remind the public of this danger, but to have a bold idea: The opportunity once in a century has come, and now as long as you short the real estate market, you can make a big profit!
Just do it, Michael found the Goldman Sachs bank on Wall Street and signed a betting agreement , also known as the "credit default swap agreement".
content is very simple: if the housing prices are still strong, then Michael will pay the bank $10 million in insurance premium monthly; if the housing prices collapse, the bank will pay him hundreds of millions of dollars in one go.
This is a life-lossing gamble. won the young model in the club and lost to work!
The person in charge of Goldman Sachs thought Michael was mentally retarded. With the current prosperity of the housing market, how could it fall?
In his opinion, Michael signed this bet agreement to rush to send money to Goldman Sachs bank. How can I not accept the money sent by
?
soon, Deutsche Bank , National Bank of America signed this "bet agreement" with him, and the insurance amount alone was US$750 million. As soon as the news came out, his Sain Fund's clients were in a panic.
overnight, Michael's email was filled with unread emails from customers: the request for withdrawal has already calculated that the tone of is relatively mild, and many customers with bad tempers directly "spoken" greetings to his whole family .
Even the master who led Michael into the investment circle asked in horror on the phone: "To be honest, can you repay me the 1 million I have in the fund first?"
In his master's opinion, shorting US real estate is tantamount to hitting a stone with an egg, and his savings must be fully lost.
However, Michael had long expected this situation. He locked the funds in advance according to the agreement, and did not allow customers to withdraw funds in the short term. The doors were welded to death, so no one could get off the car!
On the TV, Feder Chairman Ben Bernanke is talking freely, publicly claiming that the real estate market is still developing steadily and orderly, and that the bubble is only partial and irrelevant.
"We've never had a decline in houseprices on a nationwide basis."
( We have never experienced a national decline in house prices )
Hotel advertising signs in Las Vegas are still advertised with loan companies: " mortgage market is still stable and has a strong potential "!
Before the bubble burst, it was like "elephant in the room of ". With a little carefulness, you can find its existence, but most people who are blinded by prosperity will selectively ignore it.
In 2008, overdue mortgages set a new record, and the tsunami that Michael foresaw swept across the United States from Wall Street!
A large number of people in the United States and the "former middle class" were unable to afford the mortgage interest rate year by year, and were kicked out of their homes by banks. The lounge chairs in the park were crowded for a while.
Although loan companies and banks have collected a large number of houses as collateral, there are too many houses in the backlog and they cannot sell them at the original price.
In panic, housing prices fell in an avalanche manner. The financial derivatives bubble based on mortgage bonds collapsed instantly!
On September 15, 2008, the Lehman Brothers, who made countless Hong Kong stars and global investors step on the thunder, went bankrupt, and they were like a domino, quickly triggering market panic.
A large number of bigwigs playing with financial derivatives play with fire and burn themselves: New Century Financial Company went bankrupt and laid off 3,000 employees, Bear Stearns was taken over, the Federal Reserve took over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and Merrill Lynch was acquired...
45
401K plan" pensions for Americans lost investment total losses of nearly $2 trillion, and more than 50% of individual pension account holders cut their funds from the stock market to other areas.
The pension accounts of many American elderly people who are about to retire have shrunk significantly, and they have to delay their retirement plan to increase their pension savings to meet their normal living needs after retirement.
Angry American old man and aunt took to the streets to demonstrate and march
Michael, who had been waiting for two years under pressure, finally reached his own day of success.
Under the tide of almost the wailing of the whole nation, he made a fortune and his capital scale increased several times.
In a panic, the US government ignored the bankrupt, homeless, and lost pensions, and instead took out $700 billion from taxpayers to give the culprit Wall Street bankers.
American people can die, but Wall Street must not fall! Wall Street banks such as
Goldman Sachs avoided the fate of bankruptcy with the infusion of funds from the US government, but the initiators did not regret at all and still used the taxpayer's life-saving money to collectively distribute annual bonuses of millions and tens of millions of dollars to executives.
They deceived investors and the public and fabricated this tragedy, but in the end, not only did they not receive any punishment, but they also had to give them a year-end bonus?
The people's dissatisfaction was rampant, and the angry people took to the streets to launch the "Occupy Wall Street Operation" .
However, the mainstream American media selectively ignored this protest and did not give much exposure.
Comments are fully controlled on social media, Facebook , on Twitter, when the US police suppressed the Occupy Wall Street movement, videos of beating people, arresting marches, and shooting people were restricted and deleted.
In terms of handling marches and riots, the US government is 100 better than Hong Kong government .
After the dust settled, the person who was trapped in the mess was bleeding not only lost his property, but also was imprisoned for the march.
They struggled in the suffering that they did not cause themselves, and they were in danger.
And on their way to parade, just above their heads, Wall Street elites held high year-end bonuses, drove delicious champagne, and looked at the demonstrators on the street with smiles, as if they were enjoying a human comedy that had nothing to do with them, just like the gods high above Mount Olympus.
No matter how angry the people are, they are just people. What does it have to do with us?
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