1 Minute Knowledge Tips is a new daily Q&A column for 36Kr, aiming to be one minute a day, and quickly answer an important business question. Today we are answering sports-related questions. If you have any questions about the recent business world, please leave us a message in the comment section, and the tips are responsible for finding experts to answer them for you.
Question: @cave_star
Today's tip answerer: Zhang Hui Chief Sports Officer Co-founder (public account: Chief Sports Officer ID: sip_sh)
When it comes to odds, let's first popularize basic common sense.
This year's World Cup in Russia has entered the third round of the group stage. In addition to the "Chinese elements" that are everywhere inside and outside the stadium, Chinese people are also actively participating in the World Cup in another way, that is, buying lottery tickets. At present, within the scope permitted by laws and regulations in my country, there is only one way for lottery players to purchase football lottery , which is " China Sports Lottery betting football lottery", and the gameplay includes win-loss lottery , scores, goals, half-game, etc. The set of data corresponding to each gameplay and betting direction is the odds.
's initial odds appear in the form of percentages to describe the probability of winning or losing a competitive game. As these numbers continue to quantify, an odds pattern appears. Generally speaking, odds are a set of values that can reflect the logical relationship between the two parties based on the results (goals and wins) achieved by the team within a certain period of time, and make regular adjustments based on the value, making it an effective tool to serve the bookmaker. There are two common methods: European and Asian compensation and Asian compensation. Our betting football lottery uses European compensation data.
In actual application, after a bookmaker conducts a series of scientific analysis and judgments on a certain competition or competition, it will obtain three results: win, draw and lose (the result is determined depending on the form of the competition). The party with the bigger win will naturally have a lower odds, and the party with the smaller win will have a relatively high odds. However, since the odds are commodities, the bookmaker needs to analyze the market, analyze the consumer's wishes and come up with a result in a probabilistic form, which is the betting ratio. Finally, the bookmaker combines the two, then removes the company's minimum interests from it, and obtains a set of data, which is the odds displayed in the market. But it should be noted that probability does not equal odds, and the odds of becoming commodities are not the real probability of winning, draw, and losing. They are equivalent to a descriptive language with expectations and objective. You can understand it as a commodity similar to stocks and futures. After the bookmaker issues preliminary odds, it will generally make adjustments and changes. This is affected by some unpredictable factors before the game, such as player injuries, club dynamics, game goals, etc. Also, there is an imbalance in betting, and the odds need to be adjusted to make the market balance. These are normal changes in odds. Another situation is that the bookmaker intends to mislead players and affects the player's betting direction, which is an abnormal change in odds. To master the odds trend, you need to observe the changes in the on-the-spot odds, and then identify them based on the game status, strength, status and other factors to determine whether the odds trend is normal and whether the changes are reasonable, and to recognize the real intention of the dealer. In short, using odds analysis can achieve twice the result with half the effort for football lottery betting. Of course, luck is also very important to achieve a very high hit rate. The most important thing about
is to buy lottery tickets legally and make rational bets!
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