Source: Oriental ICh
Chip industry is becoming the eye of the storm of the game between great powers in this era.
Chip Act, Quadruple Alliance, EDA supply cutoff, process restrictions, the United States is launching a combined "encirclement and suppression" against my country's industry in the field of chip semiconductors.
This is another major adjustment of the US's science and technology industry policy toward China. In the chip industry, from "bottleneck" to "full blockade", will the US's wishful thinking succeed? Below we try to change our thinking perspective and re-look at the "simple and crude" unilateral action of the United States and the consequences it will bring.
first, it may not be beneficial to the United States, and may lead to civil unrest.
The US dollar financial support provided by the domestic semiconductor industry by the United States is very clear, which is to encourage enterprises to develop and manufacture chips in the United States, and promote the evolution of American chip factories to advanced processes. At present, semiconductor companies generally recognized by the industry, such as Intel , Micron , etc., will receive funding, while AMD , Qualcomm , Nvidia, etc. will not receive "blessings".
Interestingly, the US chip bill did not take into account the most powerful Fables fable chip giant camp in the United States. The US government is so willful that may potentially weaken the comprehensive strength and political and market influence of companies such as AMD, Qualcomm, Nvidia, etc., and this will indirectly affect the global competitiveness of American companies in important future scenarios such as 5G, smart cars, AI, and XR. It is currently in a recession period of consumer electronics, and sales of mobile phones, PCs, etc. have declined significantly, which is not good news for manufacturers such as AMD and Qualcomm.
Not only that, the number one company in the United States, Apple is also actively cooperating with China's semiconductor industry and equipting screens and memory chips from China in the new iPhone. Obviously, as a top Fabless manufacturer and consumer ecosystem giant, Apple will not applaud the chip bill.
The book " Cotton Empire " is called "a global history of capitalism ". The book uses cotton as a metaphor to represent the most important commodity in global trade in the past hundreds of years. What about now? With technology becoming the core, will global capital still flow according to the logic of the cotton empire? If the nature of capital is to try its best to reduce costs and firmly grasp profits in the process of global allocation, and for this reason, capital will not hesitate to cooperate with the state to maintain control of the industrial chain in the name of "national interests", then will the strange policy of reversely pushing up industrial costs, even in the US industry, have vitality?
Therefore, the US chip bill is against the trend and may even lead to the conscious boycott of the capital of the United States. The capital law that has lasted for hundreds of years is not something that can be stopped by just one bill.
Second, for the international industry, the four-party alliance has their own ulterior motives and cannot break the existing pattern.
The so-called "chip four-party alliance" was proposed by the US government. Its members are the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which are highly competitive in the field of semiconductor , intending to suppress the development and transcendence of the global semiconductor industry chain, including mainland China.
It has to be said that the US move is tantamount to "take off her pants and farts". The "four forces" such as the United States, Japan and South Korea have been closely cooperating in the semiconductor field. Whether there is or not, they will maintain the existing industrial relationship. As for the game points that already exist in the four-party industrial chain, no matter how "union" the United States has set up, it will be useless.
For example, South Korea's attitude towards the "Four-party Alliance" is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, due to the face of the United States, he reluctantly ended the "Four-party Alliance"; at the same time, South Korea is actively promoting the layout of the entire domestic semiconductor industry, improving its industrial chain's risk resistance, and preventing it from being restricted by other countries, including the United States, one day in the future; it is also very important that South Korea does not want to affect its relationship with China's semiconductor industry chain because of the "Four-party Alliance".According to Yonhap News Agency , South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin's recent visit to China is to eliminate the misunderstandings arising from South Korea's decision to participate in the preparatory meeting of the "Chip Quadruple Alliance" and is committed to promoting the complete, safe, smooth, open and inclusive industrial chain cooperation between the two countries.
Picture source: Oriental ICh
Semiconductor industry accounts for about 20% of South Korea's national economy, and South Korea will never dare to joke about the fundamentals of the national economy. For example, Samsung and other industries have unavoidable competitive relationships with the industrial chains of the United States and Taiwan in terms of chip design and process. In these fields, alliances such as South Korea and the United States and Japan cannot find a point of interest. South Korea is known as the "canary" of the global economy. The sensitive and flexible Korean semiconductor industry does not want to become a victim of the game between great powers.
Friends are still friends, and opponents are still opponents. The "Chip Four-Party Alliance" cannot change the global semiconductor industry structure.
Third, for China's industry, compared with "bottlenecks", "full blockade" may not be a bad thing.
Return to the characteristics of the semiconductor industry. Since the chip industry chain is very long, its development has always relied on the coordination and cooperation of the global industrial chain. Its technological innovation characteristics tend to be the continuous running-in, iterating, promoting and upgrading of the industry rather than independent "point innovation".
Source: Oriental ICh
Let’s take a look at the two most popular “bottleneck” key points in the Chinese semiconductor industry – “advanced process” and “ lithography machine ”. How do TSMC and ASML, the representative companies in these two key areas achieve technological leadership? In the late 1980s, ASML was an almost desperate company that had experienced countless failures and could not sell a lithography machine, while TSMC was a new company that was in trouble because of a factory fire. This pair of brothers and brothers started out in a bumpy manner and eventually became the peerless savvy in the semiconductor industry today.
It can be seen that the evolution of the semiconductor industry requires joint achievements and joint shaping between industrial chain companies. If it is only "bottled", my country's industrial chain may adopt more efficient "imported" technologies in many other semiconductor fields, but the "full blockade" of the United States may force the of China's semiconductor industry chain to fight against and cooperate sincerely.
For decades, China has accumulated rich experience, technology and talents in the semiconductor field, and is not "starting from scratch". If we take this opportunity to tie the key roles in China's chip industry chain together and move forward, we may take a slower step at the beginning, but in the future, we will definitely run faster and faster and difficult to stop. As long as the Chinese semiconductor industry can design chips with high performance, low power consumption and suitable size, it is not necessary to choose the technical route that Europe and the United States have taken .
At the same time, China's huge market is a natural furnace for ripening the industry. The booming demand in the field of ubiquitous smart device manufacturing such as mobile phones, PCs, and new energy vehicles can promote forced breakthroughs in key areas of China's chip industry.
Finally, when we talked about today's Sino-US chip industry game, we unconsciously remembered the topic of "removing IOE" many years ago (removing IBM's minicomputers, Oracle databases, EMC storage devices, and domestic systems developed based on open source software are replaced). From the beginning that some people exclaimed that "IOE will die", to the current "IOE" gradually fade away... Since we can do it, it is not a battle to gradually get rid of the constraints of the international industry in the semiconductor field!
Today's hard work may make tomorrow's calm.
is unforgettable, and the discussion of the " Trade and Industry " or the "technical and trade" route between Ni Guangnan and Liu Chuanzhi .Ni Guangnan lost back then, but what if he won back then? Are we all using a domestic operating system like Hongmeng today, and consumers often hesitate between the PC, mobile phone and foreign chip products of domestic chips...
Author/IT Times reporter Wang Xin
Editor/Hao Junhui Kicked girl
Typesetting/Ji Jiaying
Picture/Oriental IC
Source/IT Times official account vittimes
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