Another idea of ​​expanding against the trend is that high-quality assets in traditional industries, such as state-owned real estate companies with good asset structure in real estate, and high-quality breeding companies with integrated cost advantages in the breeding industry, a

. The segmented industries or enterprises that expand against the trend occur in high prosperity emerging industries or incremental industries, such as enterprises related to the construction of new energy industries and new and old infrastructure in the manufacturing industry, as well as online service industries and testing industries in the service industry.

. Another idea of ​​expanding against the trend is that high-quality assets in traditional industries, such as state-owned real estate companies with good asset structure in real estate, and high-quality breeding companies with integrated cost advantages in the breeding industry, are deploying against the trend during the downward cycle of prosperity.

. The market value characteristics of companies that expand against the trend vary from industry to industry. The expansion of existing industries mostly occurs in large and medium-cap companies, while the incremental industries are small and medium-cap companies with more willingness to expand. However, in emerging industries with high prosperity, the company's willingness to expand is less related to market value.

. Since this year, the capital expansion of real estate companies has the strongest correlation with market performance, followed by manufacturing, and the correlation between agriculture and service industries is not significant. The expansion of corporate capital expenditure is not simply positively correlated with future corporate profits and stock price performance. The certainty of future profits and growth space are the main factors affecting market valuation.

Summary

. Under the background of the epidemic, the counter-trend expansion of enterprises or industries is mostly a positive signal of rising economic conditions. In the past two years, under the gradual weakening of the macro economy, the ranking of capital expenditure levels in various fields is roughly manufacturing; service industry and finance; real estate; agriculture. Specifically, overall capital expenditure in the manufacturing sector has remained at a high level in the past two years, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020H1 to 2022H1. The service industry and financial industry are also showing an expansion trend, with the total amount paid to employees' wages in two years growing at 10.1%. However, in the past year, due to the decline in domestic economic growth and the spread of mutant strains, the expansion rate has slowed significantly. At the same time, the real estate industry has gradually contracted under the constraints of the "three red lines" policy. After the overall inventory growth rate dropped from 13.7% in 2020 to 11.1% in 2021, it showed negative growth in 2022. In addition, the reduction in capital expenditure of agricultural-related enterprises has been the most obvious in the past two years, with a compound growth rate of about -21%, which is characterized by expansion first and then contraction. The overall capital expenditure level is relatively related to the pig cycle.

. The sub-industry or enterprises that expand against the trend are mainly two types. One is high-prosperity emerging industries or incremental industries, such as enterprises related to the new energy industry and new and old infrastructure construction in the manufacturing industry, as well as online service industry and testing industries in the service industry; the other is high-quality assets in traditional industries, such as state-owned real estate companies with good asset structure in real estate, and high-quality breeding companies with integrated cost advantages in the breeding industry, which are deployed against the trend during the downward cycle of prosperity.

(1) Manufacturing industry: The capital expenditure growth rate of communications, power equipment, and building materials industries that benefit from the expansion of the new energy industry and the construction of new and old infrastructure in the manufacturing industry is significantly higher than that of other industries. In addition, the economy is in a differentiated or bottom state, and some traditional pro-cyclical industries represented by machinery, basic chemicals, and household appliances also have counter-trend expansion companies, and the direction of capital expenditure expansion in these companies in recent years has been mostly related to the new energy field.

(2) Service industry: In the service industry, most companies with obvious capital expansion are in incremental industries, such as online service industry that benefit from the "online" of life and nucleic acid testing normalized detection industry . In the financial field, with the continuous deepening of domestic financial market reform, brokerage has strong willingness to expand capital in the past two years.

(3) Real estate: In the context of the overall sluggish real estate industry, most of the real estate companies that expand against the trend are state-owned and mostly distributed in the Pearl River Delta region. The excellent asset structure is the core condition for their counter-trend layout during the industry's cleanup period.

(4) Agriculture: In the past two years, the expansion of the internal sector has been mostly concentrated in breeding and feed industry , but its capacity cycle is obviously cyclical.

. The market value characteristics of companies that expand against the trend vary from industry to industry. The expansion of existing industries mostly occurs in large and medium-cap companies, while the incremental industries are small and medium-cap companies that have more willingness to expand. However, in emerging industries with high prosperity, the company's willingness to expand is less related to market value. Since the epidemic, the expansion of the agricultural and real estate industries has mostly concentrated on large and medium-cap companies, and both industries are in the stage of clearing out production capacity. In the stock environment, large companies have more conditions for capital expansion. In the past two years, small and medium-sized market capitalization companies in the service industry have a greater willingness to expand, which may be due to the incremental space brought about by the development of online service industry in the post-epidemic era. In terms of manufacturing, the market value of enterprises with the top 100 annualized growth rates of capital expenditure since the epidemic has been relatively evenly distributed among all manufacturing sectors. Against the backdrop of the rapid expansion of emerging industries represented by the new energy industry chain, the company's willingness to expand is less related to its market value.

, This year, the capital expansion of real estate companies has the strongest correlation with market performance, followed by manufacturing, and the correlation between agriculture and service industries is not significant. The expansion of corporate capital expenditure is not simply positively correlated with future corporate profits and stock price performance. The certainty of future profits and growth space are the main factors affecting market valuation. Since the beginning of this year, the intensity of expansion of real estate companies against the trend is relatively matched with market performance. Among the top ten real estate companies with the increase, half of them showed a trend of expansion against the trend. Under the situation of a deep pullback in the domestic real estate market, there may be an opportunity to "overtake on the curve". In the manufacturing industry, the capital expenditure of the new energy chain is positively correlated with market performance, while the rest of the industries are less obvious, mainly because the transmission time chain from capital expenditure expansion to corporate profit expansion is long, and short-term volume and price changes are more likely to become the dominant factors in the industry trend. In the service industry and agriculture, capital expenditure has no obvious correlation with the performance of stock prices. The main reason is that the decisive factor of stock prices lies in profit expectations, while the service industry is more susceptible to changes in external environment such as economic development and industry policies. The market performance of the agricultural sector is more game-oriented, and the rise in stock prices is usually ahead of capacity expansion.

risk warning: liquid tightened sexually than expected, economy stalled downward, Sino-US friction intensified, the epidemic worsened beyond expectations, historical data is for reference only, uncertainty of the target company's future performance, etc.

,? Which areas are expanding against the trend under the epidemic?

In the past two years, the global economy is facing pressure of stagflation and domestic economic growth has performed weakly due to factors such as the continued recurrence of the epidemic, the weak supply and demand of the domestic real estate market, and the deterioration of the global energy supply pattern. In the current sluggish economic environment, the consumption willingness of most residents and the expansion expectations of enterprises have weakened significantly, but there are still some industries or enterprises that are optimistic about the prospects of industrial development and future company operations that are expanding against the trend. This type of industry or enterprise is mostly in high-prosperity emerging industries or is a high-quality asset in traditional industries. When the macro economy or industrial cycle recovers, such targets may be expected to see a double increase in valuation and performance.

Which specific sub-industry and enterprises in various fields have been expanding against the trend in the past two years? What are the characteristics of this type of industry or enterprise? How have these targets that have expanded against the trend have performed this year? In this report, we will try to answer the above questions by sorting out the capital expenditure data of A shares listed companies in the past two years.

In this report, we classify all listed companies in four categories according to the industrial attributes, namely manufacturing enterprises, service industry and financial enterprises, real estate enterprises and agricultural-related enterprises. For manufacturing enterprises, the core indicators for measuring capital expenditure are capital expenditure growth rate, construction projects under construction, and fixed asset growth rate; for service and financial enterprises, people are the company's core assets, so the growth rate of employee salary is the main measurement indicator; for real estate enterprises and agricultural-related enterprises, the key indicators for measuring capital expenditure are inventory and productive biological assets growth rate.

.1. Manufacturing: The counter-trend expansion of large-scale companies is worth paying attention to

Which manufacturing industry capital expenditure has accelerated significantly this year? 020H1-2022H1 annualized growth rate of capital expenditure in the manufacturing industry reached 14.3%, among which the annualized growth rate of communications, power equipment and building materials was significantly higher than that of other industries. Among them, capital expenditure in the communications and building materials industries has accelerated significantly this year. The growth rate of capital expenditure in the first half of this year reached 278.2% and 114.0% respectively, with the previous values ​​being 12.1% and 37.1% respectively, while the growth rate of capital expenditure in power equipment has been above 70% for two consecutive years.

Which companies have expanded against the trend since the epidemic? We ranked among the top 100 companies in the manufacturing industry with a compound growth rate of capital expenditure in the two-year market. From the perspective of industry distribution, we found that there are many companies whose overall prosperity is in differentiated or bottom states. Most of these companies are concentrated in mechanical equipment, pharmaceutical and biology, basic chemical industry, computer and electronics industries. The stock prices of some companies in these industries have also achieved a counter-trend upward performance, such as Shuangliang Energy Saving for their machinery and equipment, Anzhong Co., Ltd. , Home Appliances, Deye Co., Ltd., and Building Materials, with excess returns of 83.9%, 47.1%, 131.3% and 66.0%, respectively. It is worth noting that the direction of capital expenditure expansion of and other targets in recent years all belong to the new energy field . Anzhong Co., Ltd. and King Kong Glass have put into production of lithium carbonate and photovoltaic projects respectively. Deye Co., Ltd.'s inverter business has become the company's largest business, and the revenue of the new energy equipment business of Shuangliang Energy Saving Subsidiary has grown rapidly.

In the manufacturing field, capital expenditure expansion intention has no obvious relationship with the industry market performance. Except for the new energy chain ( nonferrous metals , power equipment, automobiles), which has steadily expanded in the past two years, the growth rate of capital expenditure in other industries is not significantly related to the performance of the industry market, mainly because the transmission time chain from capital expenditure expansion to corporate profit expansion is relatively long, and short-term volume and price changes are more likely to become the dominant factors in the industry trend.

The willingness to capital expenditure in manufacturing is not significantly correlated with the size of the company's market value, but mid-to-large market capitalization companies are more likely to obtain excess returns when capital expenditure expands. The market value of the top 100 manufacturing companies with annualized annualized growth rates of capital expenditures since the epidemic has been relatively average among all manufacturing companies (Figure 4), but if these 100 companies are sorted by the increase or decrease, it can be found that mid-to-large market capitalization companies are more likely to obtain excess returns. There are 13 companies in the sample that have increased by more than 20% this year, including one company with a market value of 10 billion yuan, and five companies with a market value of more than 10 billion yuan, while only two companies with a market value of less than 5 billion yuan.

.2. Service Industry: The capital expansion of the service industry is significantly increased by the epidemic

The overall capital expenditure of the service industry is in the expansion range two years after the epidemic, but the growth rate of capital expansion has slowed down significantly in the past year. In the past two years, the overall capital expenditure of the non-financial service industry is still in the expansion range, with a compound growth rate of 10.1% in two years, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on contact services industry and the vigorous development of the "online economy"; and benefiting from the loose monetary policy environment of , the compound growth rate of capital expenditure in the financial industry in two years has reached 10.5%. In addition, due to the economic downturn and repeated epidemic situation, the growth rate of capital expansion in non-financial services and financial industries has slowed down significantly in the past year.

In the non-financial service industry, the capital expansion of the online service industry and testing industry is more obvious, and securities firms are more willing to expand their capital in the financial industry. The epidemic has promoted the "online" of life. Among the companies with a compound growth rate of more than 20% in the past two years, Internet e-commerce, games, and advertising marketing accounted for 40%. In addition, benefiting from the normalization of nucleic acid testing, the capital expansion of testing companies has been significantly expanded. In terms of the financial industry, benefiting from the active trading of in the A-share market, securities companies account for 50% of the companies whose capital expenditure expansion rate in the financial industry has increased by more than 20%.

From the market value level, small and medium-sized companies have more willingness to expand. More than 70% of companies in the non-financial service industry have a market value of less than 10 billion yuan. In the past two years, the market value of companies with a capital expansion growth rate of more than 50% are mainly concentrated in the range of 4 billion to 7 billion yuan. Among them, companies with a capital expansion growth rate of more than 100% such as Shitou Shares, , Huakai Yibai, and Dongwang Times, whose market value scale does not exceed 5 billion yuan.

market performance, there is no obvious correlation between capital expenditure in the service industry and stock price performance. combined with the stock price performance since this year, the expansion and growth rate of capital expenditure in the service industry has no direct correlation with market performance. The main reason is that the decisive factor of stock price lies in profit expectations, and the service industry is more susceptible to external environment changes such as economic development and industry policies, and its profit certainty is relatively weak.

.3. Real Estate Industry: The intensity of expansion against the trend is relatively consistent with the market increase

The inventory growth rate of real estate companies has declined year by year reflecting the industry's shrinking trend. The domestic real estate industry faces huge pressure of both supply and demand reduction. The growth rate of the semi-annual inventory has declined continuously for three years, reflecting the industry's contraction trend. After the overall inventory growth rate of the semi-annual industry fell from 13.7% in 2020 to 11.1% in 2021, it showed negative growth in 2022, with a compound growth rate from 2020 to 2022 only 4.12%.

Most of the real estate companies that have expanded against the trend are state-owned and mostly distributed in the Pearl River Delta region. Against the backdrop of the overall sluggish real estate industry, 13 of the 115 A-share real estate companies still have a compound growth rate of more than 30% in two-year inventory, and 19 real estate companies have a compound growth rate of more than 10% to 30% in two-year inventory. Among the 32 enterprises with expansion speeds greater than 10%, in terms of property rights, 21 state-owned or state-owned holding enterprises in , accounting for 65.6%; from the perspective of regional distribution, 13 enterprises are registered in the Pearl River Delta region represented by Shenzhen, 11 are located in the Yangtze River Delta urban area, 3 are located in Chongqing, and the remaining enterprises are scattered in Changchun, Beijing, Xi'an, Tianjin and Hefei.

medium and large-cap real estate companies have stronger willingness to expand. In the past two years, the 13 real estate companies whose capital expansion compound speed exceeded 30% have the largest market value, with 6 medium-cap companies, 5 large-cap companies and 2 small-cap companies; the 32 real estate companies whose capital expansion speed exceeded 10% have also mainly medium-cap market value, with a total of 22 companies with a market value of 22, accounting for 68.75%.

The intensity of real estate companies' expansion against the trend is relatively consistent with the market performance. Among the top ten real estate companies with the highest growth rate this year, half of them showed a counter-trend expansion trend; in addition to Guanghui Logistics, the inventory growth rates of Binjiang Group and China Communications Construction Real Estate (compound for two years) were 36.01% and 53.19% respectively. Among them, Binjiang Group has gained market sought after by acquiring land against the trend, deepening its foothold in Zhejiang and maintaining a low financing cost; China Communications Construction Group also uses its land reserve advantages and state-owned capital credit enhancement to help the company develop sustainable.

.4. Agriculture: The capital expenditure level is relatively related to the pig cycle

020-2022 H1, the industry expansion shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, which is particularly obvious in the breeding and feed industry. Affected by the pig cycle, the growth rate of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery expansion has dropped from 31.42% of H1 in 2021 to -27.58% of H1 in 2022, with a compound growth rate of -2.44%. Among them, in H1 in 2021, the growth rates of the breeding industry and feed industry were 32.87% and 86.81% respectively, with significant expansion; in H1 in 2022, the growth rates of the breeding industry and feed industry fell to -33.08% and -24.24% respectively. In addition, fishery, forestry, agricultural product processing and other industries did not achieve significant expansion during this period.

In the past two years, the industry's expansion has mostly focused on the breeding and feed industries. Under the scope of biological production assets, among the companies with a compound growth rate of more than 20% in two years, the proportion of companies engaged in breeding industry is 58.82%, of which, the compound growth rate of Xinwufeng is 158.67%, ranking first in the growth rate of agricultural expansion; the proportion of companies engaged in feed industry is 29.41%.

In the past two years, the industry expansion has mostly occurred in large and medium-cap companies; in terms of subdivision, the expansion of the breeding and feed industries is concentrated in large and medium-cap companies, while the expansion of the planting industry is mainly in small-cap companies. From the overall perspective of the industry, among the companies with a compound growth rate of more than 20% in two years, 76.47% of the companies have a market value of more than 4 billion yuan.From the perspective of secondary sub-industry, in the breeding industry, the expansion with a compound growth rate of more than 20% in two years basically occurs in large and medium-cap companies with a market value of more than 4 billion yuan, of which 50% are medium-cap companies; in the feed industry, 80% of the expansion occurs in high-cap companies with a market value of more than 10 billion yuan; in the planting industry, the expansion is mainly in small-cap companies with a market value of less than 4 billion yuan.

The correlation between industry expansion and its market performance is not significant. Since 2022, the decline in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery has been -5.22%, of which only the breeding industry has risen slightly, with an increase of 1.41%; the decline in the planting industry has been -6.94%, and the decline in the feed has been -12.04%. In combination with the compound growth rate of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery since the 2020 H1, the two-year compound growth rate was -2.44%, and its market performance is consistent with its expansion growth rate. However, the market performance does not reflect the compound growth rate of feed and planting industry since H1 in 2020, which is 18.96% and 7.21%, so the correlation with the expansion of secondary sub-industry is not significant.

.5. What are the characteristics of industries or companies that have expanded against the trend in the past two years?

Under the background of the epidemic, the counter-trend expansion of enterprises or industries is mostly a positive signal of rising economic conditions. In the past two years, under the gradual weakening of the macro economy, the ranking of capital expenditure levels in various fields is roughly manufacturing; service industry and finance; real estate industry; agriculture. Specifically, overall capital expenditure in the manufacturing sector has remained at a high level in the past two years, with a compound growth rate of 14.3% from 2020H1 to 2022H1. At the same time, overall capital expenditure in the service industry and financial sectors has also been in the expansion range in the past two years, with a compound growth rate of 10.1% in the two years. However, in the past year, due to the decline in domestic economic growth and the spread of mutant strains, the growth rate of capital expansion has slowed significantly. The real estate industry has gradually contracted under the constraints of the "three red lines" policy. After the overall inventory growth rate dropped from 13.7% in 2020 to 11.1% in 2021, it showed negative growth in 2022. Finally, the reduction in capital expenditure of agricultural-related enterprises has been the most obvious in the past two years, with a compound growth rate of about -21%, showing characteristics of expansion first and then contraction. The overall capital expenditure level is relatively related to the pig cycle.

The sub-industry or enterprises that expand against the trend are mainly two types. One is high-prosperity emerging industries or incremental industries, such as enterprises related to the construction of new energy industries and new and old infrastructure in the manufacturing industry, as well as online service industries and testing industries in the service industry; the other is high-quality assets in traditional industries, such as state-owned real estate companies with good asset structure in real estate, and high-quality breeding companies with integrated cost advantages in the breeding industry, which are deployed against the trend during the downward cycle of prosperity.

(1) Manufacturing industry: In the economic downturn, the capital expenditure growth rate of communications, power equipment, and building materials industries that benefit from the expansion of new energy industry and the construction of new and old infrastructure in the manufacturing industry is significantly higher than that of other industries. Among them, the communications and building materials industries have accelerated significantly this year, while the capital expenditure growth rate of power equipment has been above 70% for two consecutive years. In addition, the economy is in a differentiated or bottom state, and some traditional pro-cyclical industries represented by machinery, basic chemicals, and household appliances also have counter-trend expansion companies, and the direction of capital expenditure expansion in these companies in recent years has been mostly related to the new energy field.

(2) Service industry: In the service industry, most companies with obvious capital expansion are in incremental industries. For example, the online service industry that benefits from the "online" of life and the testing industry that normalizes nucleic acid testing. In the financial field, with the continuous maturity of the domestic capital market, securities companies have strong willingness to expand capital in the past two years.

(3) Real estate industry: In the context of the overall sluggish real estate industry, most of the real estate companies that expand against the trend are state-owned and mostly distributed in the Pearl River Delta region. The excellent asset structure is the core condition for their counter-trend layout during the industry's cleanup period.

(4) Agriculture: 's internal expansion in the past two years has mostly concentrated in the breeding and feed industry, but its capacity cycle is obviously cyclical.

The market value characteristics of companies that expand against the trend vary from industry to industry. The expansion of existing industries mostly occurs in large and medium-cap companies, while the incremental industries are small and medium-cap companies that have more willingness to expand. However, in high-prosperity emerging industries, the company's willingness to expand is less related to market value. Since the epidemic, the expansion of the agricultural and real estate industries has mostly concentrated on large and medium-capital enterprises, and both industries are in the stage of clearing out production capacity. In the stock environment, large and medium-capital market value is more in line with the conditions for capital expansion. In the past two years, small and medium-sized market capitalization companies in the service industry have a greater willingness to expand, which may be due to the incremental space brought about by the development of online service industry in the post-epidemic era. In terms of manufacturing, the market value of enterprises with the top 100 annualized growth rates of capital expenditure since the epidemic has been relatively evenly distributed among all manufacturing sectors. Against the backdrop of the rapid expansion of emerging industries represented by the new energy industry chain, the company's willingness to expand is less related to its market value.

Since the beginning of this year, the capital expansion of real estate companies has the strongest correlation with market performance, followed by manufacturing, and the correlation between agriculture and service industries is not significant. The expansion of corporate capital expenditure is not simply positively correlated with future corporate profits and stock price performance. The certainty of future profits and growth space are the main factors affecting market valuation. Since the beginning of this year, the intensity of real estate companies' expansion against the trend has been relatively matched with market performance. Among the top ten real estate companies with the increase, half of them showed a trend of expansion against the trend. Under the situation of a deep pullback in the domestic real estate market, companies with expansion against the trend may be expected to achieve "overtaking on the curve". In the manufacturing industry, the capital expenditure of the new energy chain is positively correlated with market performance, while the rest of the industries are less obvious, mainly because the transmission time chain from capital expenditure expansion to corporate profit expansion is long, and short-term volume and price changes are more likely to become the dominant factors in the industry trend. In the service industry and agriculture, capital expenditure has no obvious correlation with the performance of stock prices. The main reason is that the decisive factor of stock prices lies in profit expectations, while the service industry is more susceptible to changes in external environment such as economic development and industry policies. The market performance of the agricultural sector is more game-oriented, and the rise in stock prices is usually ahead of capacity expansion.

, tracking of key changes in three factors and preferred industries

The latest economic high-frequency data shows that the supply side operating rates have differentiated, and automobiles are better than real estate on the demand side. The quality of "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be waited for further verification of the data. Domestic ten bond interest rates and short-term interest rates fluctuated at low levels, with the interest rate of US bond rising and falling, and the trend of RMB depreciation has been temporarily suspended. This week, the market showed a clear differentiation pattern, with trading volume relatively sluggish, and the recent national epidemic situation showed signs of improvement.

.1. Key changes in tracking of the three factors of economy, liquidity, and risk preference

The latest economic high-frequency data shows that the operating rate on the supply side has differentiated, and automobiles are better than real estate on the demand side. The quality of the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be waited for further verification of the data. Judging from the latest economic high-frequency data, the operating rates of various production ends have slightly differentiated. The operating rates of Tangshan blast furnaces have increased in the second week of September, and the operating rates of tyres have fallen slightly in the second week of September. The recovery on the demand side is relatively slow, and real estate sales are still relatively sluggish. Among them, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in major and medium-sized cities in September fell by about 40% year-on-year, and the downward range is amplified compared with August. We will pay attention to the impact of real estate sales in late September, especially during the end of the quarterly window. The overall performance of automobile sales was average. From August 1 to 31, the passenger car market retail sales increased by 29% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month in July. From the perspective of foreign demand, South Korea's exports in August increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate further declined compared with July. Overall, from the latest high-frequency economic data, the operating rates on the supply side have differentiated, and automobiles are better than real estate on the demand side. The quality of the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be waited for further verification of the data.

Domestic ten-debt interest rates and short-term interest rates fluctuate at low levels, US bond interest rates rose above 3.3%, the US dollar index rose and fell, and the trend of RMB depreciation was temporarily suspended. From the perspective of domestic market interest rates, the domestic ten bond interest rates have remained near 2.6% fluctuated narrowly within . Domestic liquidity is generally abundant, with short-term interest rates remaining at around 1.4%, but it is still significantly lower than the 2% reverse repurchase policy interest rate level. This week, the scale of central bank reverse repurchase continued to maintain a relative amount of 2 billion. Overseas, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated at a high level, reaching 3.3%, real interest rates rose significantly, and inflation expectations were basically stable. exchange rate , the US dollar index rose and fell, and the RMB exchange rate also ended the trend of continuous depreciation. From the perspective of market liquidity, foreign capital inflows occurred sharply last Friday, and remained out of the situation for the rest of the time.

This week, the market showed a clear differentiation pattern, with trading volume relatively sluggish, and the recent national epidemic situation showed signs of improvement. A-shares showed obvious differentiation in the past week. Among the various styles, the cyclical and financial performance was the best, the growth and consumption performance were poor, and the trading volume was significantly shrinking. Judging from the changes in the epidemic situation, the recent national epidemic situation has shown signs of improvement. The number of confirmed cases on the same day fell to less than 200, and the asymptomatic infection of fell to less than 1,000 on the same day. We will follow the quality of travel and consumption data during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

.2, September Industry allocation: Non-bank finance, food and beverage, power equipment

The main idea of ​​industry allocation: Looking forward to September, it is expected to maintain a stable market under the assumption that the momentum of economic recovery momentum is marginal and liquidity remains reasonably abundant. In terms of economy, with the efforts of the previous policy, weak sectors such as real estate and consumption in the early stage are expected to usher in an upward period similar to June. Strong sectors such as exports and infrastructure remain resilient under the support of exchange rate depreciation and the start of policy-based financial bond projects. In terms of liquidity, after the interest rate cut in mid-August, liquidity is likely to continue to be affluent in September. In terms of style, the strengthening of economic recovery momentum is expected to lead to a phased rebalancing of the market style, but the value reversal may only be phased, and a trend reversal requires a strong rebound in the momentum of economic recovery momentum. Against the backdrop of economic structure adjustment and "breaking the old and building the new", the downward movement of the total economic growth center is relatively good for the growth market, and small and medium-sized growth is an opportunity to make arrangements after the pullback. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to the rebalancing of short-term value styles and the layout of the track with certainty in the long-term economy. Including 1) Non-bank sectors with low valuations and catalyzed by the expectation of a comprehensive registration system reform, such as securities companies, insurance, diversified finance and other industries; 2) Consumer sectors with reversing difficulties and demand ushering in peak seasons, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mass consumer goods, and liquor sectors that benefit from the improvement of income and costs; 3) Some growth sectors with positive performance in the interim report period and high prosperity are certain, such as some non-ferrous metals and basic chemical fields related to the new energy chain, as well as To G-attribute power equipment, national defense and military industry, etc. The first choice industry is non-bank finance, food and beverage, and power equipment in September.

? Food and beverage

support factors: the current pessimistic expectations are gradually fulfilled, and the sector market will be optimistic after the Mid-Autumn Festival expectations drop to low levels. The demand for the liquor industry remains stable, and sales-oriented wine companies will continue to grow. After the bubble of small wine companies is squeezed out during the peak Mid-Autumn Festival this year, their share will return to high-quality brands. The future industry will still be a differentiated market. The pressure on third- and fourth-tier wine companies and small sauce liquor does not represent the real fundamentals and trends of the industry.

Supporting factors: In the medium and long term, the direction of demand improvement remains unchanged, and the overall operating pace of food leaders is also more stable when the economic environment is affected. gradually weakened with the impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year, costs gradually declined from high levels, and the base of the statement is gradually falling. At the same time, some sectors and the leading stocks have fully reflected pessimistic expectations and have now returned to a low valuation level.

The third supporting factor: the increase in outdoor activities and the hot weather have driven the increase in consumption of beverages, tobacco and alcohol on a month-on-month basis. After the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, residents' outdoor activities increased. In addition, the high temperature weather stimulated the rapid growth of demand for beverages and beer, and beverages, beer and other products entered the peak consumption season.

targets: Kweichow Moutai , Jinshiyuan, Qiaqia Food , Bairun Co., Ltd. , etc.

? One of the supporting factors of non-bank finance

: The China Securities Regulatory Commission formulated and issued the "Announcement on the Inclusion of Trading Open-End Funds in Connectivity Related Arrangements", which is beneficial to securities companies and public funds . Since the opening of the stock market trading interconnection mechanism between the Mainland and Hong Kong, it has maintained stable and orderly operation and promoted the common development of the capital markets of the two places.Deepening the trading interconnection mechanism between the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets is not only conducive to enriching the types of trading products and providing more convenience for foreign investment in China's capital market, but is also of great significance to promoting the mutual integration of the capital markets of the two places and further opening up the capital market.

Supporting factors: The seminar on comprehensive registration system reform was successfully held, and brokerage investment banking business benefits. On June 25, the National Finance and Development Laboratory and the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly held a seminar on the reform of the comprehensive registration system . The implementation of the comprehensive registration system reform will further smooth the investment and financing ends, improve the vitality and resilience of my country's capital market, improve the virtuous cycle of "technology-industry-capital", promote the formation of a more complete financial service system, and enhance the efficiency of the capital market serving the high-quality development of the economy.

The third supporting factor: The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Regulations on Supervision and Administration of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Fund Managers", which is beneficial to securities companies' asset management business. The long-term situation of residents' wealth without markets will be improved . This year's epidemic has enhanced people's awareness of risk, and the need for individuals and families to smooth consumption and avoid risks through financial management, insurance, etc. is becoming increasingly urgent. The issuance of the "Management Measures" marks the official implementation of the long-awaited "one participation, one control and one brand" in the industry, and the potential for wealth management needs of Chinese residents will continue to be released.

targets: Oriental Fortune , GF Securities , Guolian Securities , CITIC Securities , etc.

? One of the supporting factors of power equipment

: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to speed up the construction of the new energy supply and consumption system. The meeting mentioned that "we must improve the energy resource supply guarantee capacity and increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system", which will also be conducive to the development of wind and light resources, surrounding coal-fired power projects, and ultra-high voltage construction.

Supporting factors: Shanghai will achieve full installation of roof photovoltaics, which is beneficial to photovoltaic companies. On July 28, the Shanghai government issued the "Shanghai Carbon Peak Implementation Plan", which proposed that by 2025, the photovoltaic coverage rate of rooftops of public institutions and industrial plants will reach more than 50%; by 2030, all installations will be achieved. At the same time, some cities including Shanghai have issued subsidies related to new energy such as wind power, and the introduction of clean energy and electricity has been continuously strengthened, and the market space is broad.

Supporting factors: The installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry continues to grow, and strong domestic and foreign demand promotes rapid growth of installed capacity throughout the year. According to data from the National Energy Administration, my country added 30.878 million drywatts in the first half of the year, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 340 million kilowatts, an increase of 25.8% year-on-year. On the demand side, on the one hand, many provinces and cities in my country have issued photovoltaic support policies, and installed capacity is expected to accelerate again in the second half of the year; on the other hand, the European market continues to rise under the combined effect of increasing energy supply and the hot and hot heat, and the European photovoltaic installed capacity demand is expected to continue to grow.

targets: Tongwei Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy, Yijing Optoelectronics, Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical, etc.

, risk warning

liquidity tightens beyond expectations, the economy stalls downward, Sino-US frictions intensify, the epidemic worsens beyond expectations, and uncertainty in the future performance of related target companies, etc.

This article comes from the financial world