Recently, the Italian large-scale machinery and equipment company Sacmi Group said that the rise in energy prices of has caused some companies to stop production, reducing the competitiveness of European manufacturing. This company, which is in a key link in the industrial chain, has risen by 30% at a time when energy prices are rising. Its chairman said that "We are not competitive in the international market compared to other regions."
At the same time, the chairman of the Italian Federation of Industrialists said that if Russia completely stops the supply of natural gas , Italy will have a natural gas gap of 4 billion cubic meters, and if this gas gap is applied to the industrial field, almost one-fifth of Italian industrial production will be stopped.
Internal and external difficulties, the European chemical industry ushered in a "double kill" suspension of production
not just Italy. After Russia stopped supplying natural gas indefinitely, some manufacturing industries in the EU have set off a wave of production cuts and production suspensions. Aluminum, zinc, steel, glass 6 high-energy-consuming industries such as aluminum, zinc, steel, and glass are too expensive and cannot afford to make ends meet. The downstream chemical industry , and EU companies that use natural gas as an important chemical raw material are facing a "no rice to put it in the pot".
"North Stream No. 1" does not resume supply this year and next two years, the affected gas transmission volume will be about 30 million cubic meters per day. In the fourth quarter of this year, Europe's natural gas supply gap will reach 181 million cubic meters per day. Affected by this, Europe, which was already high oil and gas prices, has made the most of the average raw material costs of some European chemical manufacturers remain high, and a large number of manufacturers have to reduce their operating rates.
While natural gas supply is short, Europe has also ushered in the worst drought in Europe in nearly 500 years. The water level of Rhine has dropped to 30cm, and transportation fees have increased by 30% in one day. , the second longest canal in Northwest Europe, carries about 30% of the total inland transport volume of the EU in a year, and Germany depends on it for about 30% of the annual coal and oil supply and transportation. The lack of transportation capacity of makes transportation of chemical raw materials and products difficult, and some chemical companies have therefore reduced their output.
On the one hand, energy prices soared, logistics freight costs increased on the other hand. With the double-killing of both internal and external factors, the average raw material cost of some European chemical manufacturers remains high, and thus forced a large number of manufacturers to reduce their operating rates. Research report released by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry shows that by surveying 3,500 German industrial enterprises, about 16% of the companies believe that they need to reduce production or give up some business. Nearly one-quarter of them have reduced production and stopped production, and the other quarter is being reduced production, and the remaining half are planning to take measures.
Domestic chemical industry "takes over" Europe, and leaders such as 10 Hua , Hengli usher in opportunities
In addition to affecting energy costs, natural gas, as the basic raw material for natural gas chemical industry, it will be transmitted to most chemical products such as C2, C3, chemical fertilizers, chlor-alkali , polyurethane , etc., and the impact is huge.
The global chemical products market in 2020 was 3.47 trillion euros, with EU sales ranking second. At that time, the top three countries (regions) in the world ranked 1.55 trillion euros (accounting for 44.55%) respectively; The EU region was 499.1 billion euros, accounting for 14.4% (including the entire European region of the 27 EU countries and the entire European region of Europe, accounting for 627.6 billion euros, accounting for 18.1%); The United States was 425.8 billion euros (accounting for 12.3%).
Due to the impact of the energy crisis, the costs of chemical products in China and Europe have been greatly differentiated. The costs and selling prices of many European chemical products are significantly higher than those in China, which brings opportunities for export energy arbitrage to Chinese chemical products.At present, the production of China's chemical production is about . The proportion of in the world is increasing. In the long run, it will help Chinese companies obtain more trial opportunities and feed back to technology iteration to achieve a positive cycle, providing major opportunities for the international breakthrough and growth of independent enterprises.
This means that my country's chemical industry is expected to undertake more European capacity transfers, thus benefiting from both increase in quantity and price.
Industry insiders said that the statement that the domestic chemical industry "takes over" Europe is not groundless. As soon as the news of the suspension of supply of " Beixi-1" came out, the domestic chemical market was ignited across the board, and the chemical sector also stopped falling and rebounded after nearly a week of correction. In the early trading on the 6th, propylene oxide , phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry, fertilizer and other sectors all ranked gains, Aoke shares hit the daily limit, Sinochem International , Bohai Chemical, Hongyun Co., Ltd., Hongbaoli , Sichuan Meifeng and other stocks slammed the daily limit.
In addition to the direct pull and favorable effects of the chemical industry caused by the shortage of raw materials, we should also see that the chemical industry plays a systematic and important role in the industrial system. The downstream industries such as Automobile, computer chip, insulating material , medicines, as well as detergents and detergents , are all dependent on chemical products, so the demand of the chemical industry is continuing to be stable and upward.
Under this background, the cost of chemical varieties with high energy consumption and high European production capacity is expected to rise, and the resulting domestic and foreign price spreads are expected to drive domestic export growth. In layman's terms, the European energy crisis will raise the cost of local manufacturing energy in Europe, causing instability in supply chains and insufficient production capacity. China's manufacturing supply chain has obvious comparative advantages, which is conducive to expanding exports. It also provides a window for development for domestic high-end chemical companies with alternative import capabilities, such as 1Wanhua Chemical , Xinhecheng , Cangzhou Dahua , Dongfang Shenghong, Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry , etc.
It is worth noting that given the recession of the European economy and the rise in global anxiety, even if the energy crisis is lifted, the rise in other cost of living may force European consumers to choose cost-effective channels to purchase production and daily necessities. This may be an opportunity for domestic cost-effective products, but whether this water will flow into my country is still worth discussing.
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