[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the founder of the Great Diplomacy Think Tank. The "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively original published on the Toutiao platform , reprinted from the official account "Kuzhijie and Foreign Affairs", and the author of Shanhai Tianyuan.
More and more international people believe that no matter who wins Russia and Ukraine, the biggest loser in the Ukrainian crisis is EU . This statement is not without reason. Fundamentally speaking, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the most serious, most involved, most direct or indirect involvement in the world since the end of the Cold War, and the most powerful impact on the world pattern. The conflict occurs on the battlefield, but the main factor determining the outcome is outside the battlefield. The EU's "loss" is the loss outside the battlefield.
First of all, I lost the hard-earned independence and autonomy. In the past 200 days since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU has gone from condemning to sanctioning Russia, from politically supporting Ukrainian to continuously escalating military aid to Ukraine, from supporting NATO to trying to open a "fast lane" for Ukraine to join the EU, following the United States, and tied itself more and more tightly to the chariots of the United States and NATO. The courage to "build an independent Europe" in the Macron era was almost gone. European knowledgeable people feel deeply regretful, and politicians such as Macron have also reiterated the old words.
Second, lost in the complete offense of Russia in order to follow the United States, lost the balanced, stable and sustainable security mechanism of the European continent, and put European security again under the wings of the United States and NATO. The former Soviet Union collapsed. After the end of the Cold War, the relationship between the EU and Russia was generally relatively stable. Putin regarded the revision of France and Germany as an element to ensure its own security. France and Germany took the lead. The EU balanced the US and Russia with all its strength. After years of operation, EU's cooperation has been progressing smoothly. The EU's dependence on Russian energy and food and other commodities has continued to deepen, which has caused US suspicion. One of the deepest purposes of the United States to promote NATO's eastward expansion of until it provokes the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is to differentiate Europe and Russia, create confrontation, and thus reshape its control over the EU. The United States has achieved its goal. The EU has made itself an enemy of Russia. It has no power to protect itself and can only turn to the United States. International people sigh for the EU's re-definition of the United States.
Third, sanctions were backfired and became the biggest victim in the economy. Under the coercion and temptation of the United States, the EU has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, from individuals to countries, from embargo to finance, especially energy, aiming to cut off the lifeline of Russia's economy. Its scale and strength even surpassed the United States. The result was that "losing his wife and losing his troops". Russia did not fall. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and harvested the euro. The US military-industrial complex made a fortune in war, while the inflation rate of the EU countries reached the highest level in 40 years. The sudden shortage of energy and raw materials has caused the supply chain and industrial chain to break, and the economic structure of major countries such as Germany has been impacted, resulting in the shutdown and rotation of manufacturing industries. The hot summer is not over and the cold winter is approaching. Food supply is facing a crisis, people's livelihood is in danger, and complaints are everywhere. Governments of various countries are under great pressure and economic recession is a foregone conclusion. Under the crisis, EU countries' "fatigue aid to Ukraine" has emerged, but they are in a dilemma.
Fourth, internal contradictions arise, and the existing order faces challenges. "Common democratic values" are the "legal rope" used by the United States to kidnap the EU, but they cannot confine the existence and development of internal interests contradictions among EU members. The degree of relations with Russia determines the position and attitude of countries on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is difficult to reconcile. France and Germany have their own strategic considerations. Hungary , Czech , etc. insist on opposing the energy embargo on Russia, and Turkey "transcends" and is difficult to figure out. It is worth noting that , located at the forefront of the conflict, has always been the most active, and it is very likely to take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to climb to a "big power" and be on par with France and Germany. This is a challenge to the existing order formed by the EU over the past few decades, and it is estimated that the United States is backed by it.
Ukraine crisis is still developing, the situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is changing, and the final outcome is unpredictable, but the EU has lost, which is certain. Even if Ukraine "wins" with the full support of the United States and the West, Russia will not be eliminated and will still be there. The "security threat" faced by the EU will increase, while the United States will still sit on the other side of the ocean to watch the tiger fight. What is the benefit of the EU?
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