Source: China News Network
China News Network, September 9 (China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan) On September 9, National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) in August, fresh vegetables and eggs. Under the influence of factors such as price increases, many institutions expect that the year-on-year increase in CPI in August may expand slightly.
8 CPI year-on-year growth may continue to hit a new high this year
7, affected by the rise in prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other foods and seasonal factors, CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, setting a new high this year. What will happen to the CPI in August year-on-year?
CPI up and down trend chart. Figure from National Bureau of Statistics
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring, in August, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.11 yuan/kg, which remained the same month-on-month, up 36% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.11 yuan/kg, up 2018 yuan/kg, up 2018. It rose 3.7%, up 8.5% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of eggs was 10.67 yuan/kg, up 7.2% month-on-month and up 2.1% year-on-year.
"High-frequency data in August showed that the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose month-on-month, which had a certain upward pulling effect on the CPI food items." CITIC Securities believes that the early situation of pork farmers rushing to sell in the pen gradually eased, Pork prices in August were basically the same as last month, and there was no significant increase.
"Considering the negative impact of the multi-point scattered epidemic in August on the recovery of service consumption, coupled with the drag on the price of crude oil prices on transportation and communications, the non-food item CPI may experience a certain month-on-month decline. Overall, it is expected that the CPI in August will be year-on-year. It may rise moderately to a level of around 2.9%. "CITIC Securities said.
However, Huachuang Securities believes that the tightening epidemic prevention and control situation and the downward pressure on the economy continue to suppress the upward slope of core inflation. The adjustment of international oil prices has led to a significant decline in domestic refined oil prices, both of which have dragged down the upward speed of CPI. It is expected that CPI will grow zero month-on-month in August and will fall slightly to around 2.6% year-on-year.
According to Tonghuashun iFinD statistics, the average forecast of 17 institutions for the year-on-year increase in CPI in August was 2.79%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in August will continue to expand, hitting a new high this year.
Data picture: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen Market. Photo by Tian Yuhao, China News Service,
CPI is expected to remain at a reasonable level
China News Service reporter sorted out data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that due to seasonal factors and the strengthening of market regulation by relevant departments, pork prices had appeared more from the end of July to mid-August. A slight decrease in the week. But since late August, pork prices have risen again.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August 29 to September 4, 2022, the average purchase price of pigs designated slaughtering enterprises in large-scale nationwide was 23.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and 51.7% year-on-year. white striped meat average ex-factory price was 29.96 yuan/kg, up 3.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year.
"The market has generally been concerned about the upward drive of lard resonance on CPI, whether it will lead CPI to a relatively high reading." Minsheng Securities said that according to our understanding of CPI weight settings, this round of pig cycles will be used to CPI It may be less than the market's previous expectations. CPI is likely to rise year-on-year in the second half of the year, but there is no need to worry too much about the upward range of CPI.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economics, believes that from the next stage, despite certain upward pressure, there are still many favorable conditions for prices to remain generally stable. First, domestic market supply is The overall capacity is sufficient; second, pork prices do not meet the conditions for a significant increase; third, international imported factors are expected to decrease.
"From the second half of the year, although due to short-term factors, the increase in consumer prices in some months may be higher, but from the perspective of the whole year, it is conditional to maintain consumer prices at a reasonable level." Fu Linghui pointed out.
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