Today I saw some rumors about this year's 1 typhoon
is roughly "Typhoon 1 twilight is here to disrupt the May Day holiday ×× will be in a waste"
Tianxinger will analyze and analyze rationally today with Nimeng
This year's 1 twitter Typhoon
also advises all friends
not to believe in rumors or spread rumors!
According to the national standard of " tropical cyclone level" (GB/T 19201-2006), tropical cyclones are divided into six levels: tropical low pressure, tropical storm , strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon, and super strong typhoon . What we usually call "typhoon" refers to a tropical cyclone with an intensity of tropical storm level or above.
Q
A
Typhoon does not " punctual "! Is the typhoon late this year?
The tropical ocean surface has indeed begun to become uneasy recently. On the tropical ocean surface near the equator in the southeast of the Philippines, a tropical cloud is developing. But it is just a typhoon embryo, and it is still unknown whether it can develop into a typhoon. There are many typhoon embryos that have been "still-fed" all year round.
△ Typhoon naming table (partial screenshot). Image source: Central Meteorological Observatory
One thing that can be confirmed is that as of April 27, no typhoon has indeed occurred this year. According to the order of the typhoon naming table, if generated, the naming of " Wasp " will not run away. typhoons may occur in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea every month throughout the year, with the most frequent typhoons in August. Let’s talk about the “check-in” of Typhoon No. 1 all year round.
Typhoon No. 1 is around 3/20, but there are also "unpunctual" Typhoon No. 1, which is "early" and "late". According to statistics, since 1951, there have been only 12 years since May 1st and after, which means that the probability of the first typhoon occurring after is less than 20%! !
For example, the No. 1 Typhoon "Alice" (strong typhoon level) in 1979 was generated at 8:00 on January 1, 1979, and died in the northwest Pacific Ocean on January 15.
Image source: Central Meteorological Observatory
Image source: Central Meteorological Observatory
1998 Typhoon "Nikoer" (tropical storm level), was generated on the northeastern sea of the South China Sea only at 14:00 on July 9, 1998, on July 10 It landed in my country twice in the early morning and early morning of the 11th, and then weakened and disappeared in southern Fujian...etc.
Q
A
Why is the typhoon late? Does May Day really affect our country?
If the "Hornet" is generated, it will be a "late" Typhoon No. 1.
China Weather Network Meteorological analyst Zhang Juan analyzed that the reason why typhoons are not punctual this year is mainly because the Western Pacific sub-high has continued to be strong and large since the beginning of this year, suppressing tropical disturbances in the sea area, so few typhoons have formed. This year 1 Typhoon No. 1 is relatively rare to produce late. Even if
develops into a typhoon, its path is uncertain.
And, generation ≠ impact ≠ login.
Typhoons can spin, turn, or even suddenly disappear in the Pacific Ocean...
Regarding whether the "Hornets" may affect my country during the May Day holiday, Hu Xiao, chief meteorological analyst of China Weather Network, said that even if this tropical cloud cluster develops into a typhoon, during the May Day holiday, it will be a typhoon. Neither! Won't! Won't! It has an impact on mainland my country.
In general, the timeliness is still far away. Everyone still has to pay attention to the typhoon forecast after the May Day holiday~~~
typhoon path query, scan and get it.
Save it quickly, save it when the typhoon comes, and get the location and path of the typhoon at any time. What trends are typhoons showing in my country? There is no obvious change trend in the number of landing typhoons in
. From 1949 to 2019, a total of 640 tropical cyclones landed in my country, with a slight decrease in the frequency of landings, but there was no significant increase or decrease in the number of changes that reached the typhoon level.
Typhoon landing locations tend to be concentrated.1949-1981, the tropical cyclones that landed and affected my country were mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of South China and the Hainan Island area; and from 1982 to this day, they are still mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of East China and the Taiwan Island area. Overall, my country's tropical cyclones are still mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Taiwan Island area. The northernmost landing position shows a relatively obvious trend of falling southward year and approaching 25 degrees northward latitude; the southernmost landing position is opposite to it, showing a trend of moving northward year and approaching 25 degrees northward latitude year by year. The typhoon landing area is more concentrated, and the southeast coast near 25 degrees north latitude has become the main area for typhoon landing. Therefore, the risk of landing typhoons in this area is significantly increased.
Typhoon landing period tends to be concentrated. The duration of the tropical cyclone landing season in my country is about 4 months on average, the shortest is less than one month, and the longest can reach half a year. Statistics show that the duration of the tropical cyclone landing season in my country has shortened, and the landing period of typhoons tends to be concentrated.
login typhoon intensity is showing an increase. represents its strength by the central air pressure of a tropical cyclone. According to the analysis of typhoon data since 1949, the results show that the intensity of tropical cyclones in my country during landing has a tendency to increase year by year, and are occupied by the stronger tropical cyclones in landing typhoons. The proportion is also increasing year by year.
Last
If you like our tweet
Add a star to "China Weather Network"
Copyright of this article belongs to China Weather NetworkReprint Please indicate the source
Temperature forecast map "hot". Can this tweet be popular? It's up to you.
How to play this year? The north is preventing heat and rain in the south is sheltering from rain
The temperature is about to "depart". Are your summer equipment ready?
will see a warming climax next week. The temperature here will reach 30℃
points of small flower
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-