This week, the incident of 39 Asians being smuggled to death in a refrigerated truck shocked China and the UK. The initial report said that these people were all Chinese, but now, more and more evidence shows that these people are not Chinese. They are Vietnamese, and so far, no family members in the country have spoken out. However, Vietnamese families are constantly reporting missing family members. The possibility that they are Chinese is getting smaller and smaller. I believe it will be fully confirmed in a few days.
To be honest, I was a little surprised when I first saw the report that all the 39 deceased were Chinese.
Because normally, according to the data, once the gap in per capita GDP narrows to about four or five times, people will be smuggled out of China. It is not economically worthwhile to work part-time, mainland China and Taiwan This is a good example. More than ten years ago, Taiwan news about illegal immigrants from the mainland was a hot topic. Therefore, many shelters were built to accommodate illegal immigrants from the mainland. However, by 2010, news about illegal immigrants from the mainland rarely appeared in the news. Taiwan has been reported in the media, and smuggling has basically stopped.
At that time, the per capita GDP comparison between mainland China and Taiwan was about four times (4524.06 USD vs. 19261.67USD).
Source of the picture below Source: Taiwan Ocean Commission and Coast Guard
Compared with developed countries in Europe, America and Japan,
my country's per capita GDP in 2018 was US$9,635, and this year it is expected to be almost US$10,000.
The threshold of per capita GDP in developed countries is US$20,000. We have raised the comparison standard and calculated it based on US$40,000 per capita in developed countries (Japan’s per capita GDP in 2018 was US$3.93050,000 US dollars), which is almost four times that of ours.
is about four times the per capita GDP, so it is obviously not that cost-effective for Chinese people to smuggle people to developed countries now.
The median income of ordinary people in developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan , if converted into RMB, is about 15,000-20,000 per month. For example, the median monthly salary of people in Hong Kong next door in 2018 is 17,500 Hong Kong dollars, almost 16,000 RMB.
In Europe, the UK is a country with a decent income. In 2018, the per capita GDP was US$42,560, which is 4.42 times that of my country.
The picture below is the information I found from the official website of the British Bureau of Statistics. The median weekly income in 2018 is £569.
is converted into a monthly salary based on today's 9.12 exchange rate, which is about 20,800 yuan a month.
We assume that illegal workers can reach the median level of British society (of course it is doubtful whether illegal workers can get this money), then the monthly income of is 20,800 yuan, which is more than 200,000 yuan a year. It seems It seems okay, but the price paid is very high.
One is the high intermediary smuggling fee, which means that the first two years are basically used to pay off the debt. But if you are accidentally discovered by the police and deported in the past two years, it will be completely in vain. .
One is labor risk. Working illegally means a lack of bargaining power, and you may encounter ultra-low wages, long working hours and unpaid wages. Especially when the local economy is in recession, it is not easy to find a job, and stowaways are often harassed by their employers. Bullying news is not new.
One is the price cost. You earn more than 200,000 yuan a year, but local prices are higher. Even if you scrimp on food and housing and save money, if you get sick, it will be a high expense. If developed countries in Europe, America and Japan do not have medical insurance , there is no good thing in China that can cure a cold for just a few dozen yuan.
One is the emotional cost. If you don’t have an identity, you can’t fly back to your country. You can only stay there for a long time without returning home. So how many years do you plan to not return to your country? Three years is definitely not enough. We just paid off the debt not long ago, and five years is not enough. The money saved is not enough. So, are you prepared not to go home for eight or even ten years? You went out to work illegally in your twenties and never found a partner to marry?
Finally, there is the opportunity cost, which is more important.
The per capita GDP US$10,000 is only the national average in China. If you are willing to leave your hometown to increase your income, you can work in a large city with a relatively high income in China, such as first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities. The per capita GDP is already 20,000 US dollars, which is close to . The level of in Greece, Portugal and other entry-level developed countries has already entered the threshold of the per capita GDP of developed countries . . If you deliver food in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, you can earn a monthly salary of 5,000-10,000 yuan if you work hard. It can be achieved, and you don’t have to pay any smuggling fees. If you want to go home, you can just take the high-speed train. The usual discounted air ticket is a few hundred yuan, which is much cheaper than flying back from Europe and the United States. What’s more, domestic salaries are still rising. After ten years abroad, You have paid too much, and when you come back, you will see the great changes.
Because of this, when the income gap between China and developed countries has been significantly reduced, if various domestic illegal overseas labor agencies want to attract Chinese people to work abroad, they must exaggerate the income levels abroad. As long as Baidu "overseas labor services" , "Work Abroad" can find a lot of such content.
Just this month (October), I followed a foreign video blogger on a certain website, and mentioned that a fan privately messaged her, saying that an intermediary offered to pay only an intermediary fee of 19,800 yuan. It was arranged to earn about 33,000 yuan a month in a European country, and this blogger also categorically said that this was impossible, so don’t be deceived.
We must keep in mind that the median income of ordinary people in developed countries in Europe and the United States is generally 1.50,000-20,000 yuan a month. Almost all the advertisements you see for overseas labor agencies are inevitable. The monthly income of is above 20,000, or above 30,000, which is higher than the local median level. This raises a question mark over and , not to mention . Small companies basically cannot get work visas in Europe, the United States and Japan. , do not easily pay intermediary fees that can easily cost tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan.
This article is intended to clarify some basic facts.
What is the living standard of Chinese people in the world?
In the previous article, I listed the potential countries in the world that are expected to enter developed countries in the next 20 to 30 years. Through the elimination method, we also found that in the world, they are controlled by the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) and IMF (International Monetary Fund) dual-certified 30 multiple Outside of developed countries, only four countries, namely China, Hungary, Poland, and Panama, have a relatively solid hope of becoming developed countries in the future. Among them, Panama has a population of only 3.935 million (statistics in July 2016). , there is no Hong Kong , Singapore has a large population.
In other words, generally speaking, the current living standards of Chinese people are second only to developed countries in the world.
It is among the first-class standards in developing countries. In fact, many Chinese people have discovered after traveling that some The so-called developed economies, that is, countries that are at the entry level among developed economies, will give people the feeling that "the original standard of living is just like this, and it does not feel much better than China, and many places are not as good as China."
In other words, we must have confidence that our country’s national living standards are second only to developed countries, but ahead of most developing countries. Together with a few other three or four countries, we have the highest living standards among developing countries in the world. The basic situation of national living standards in the world is consistent with the facts.
But on the other hand, we can often see various articles listing some data,
such as "Only 130 million Chinese have passports, accounting for only 9% of the population",
"1 billion Chinese have never flown by plane",
"selling bargains" Pinduoduo sales are booming and rising against the trend"
"80% of households have a per capita monthly income of no more than 3000 yuan"
"Only 4% of Chinese people have a bachelor's degree"
then said, "This is the real China." ,
"China's achievements have attracted worldwide attention, but it should also be noted that the Chinese people are far from that wealthy. The numbers are real and cruel."
The above are excerpts from some articles I saw in 2018-2019 out,
to be honest, I I am quite worried that if young people see these things, it will mislead them,
and create a feeling of "It turns out that my monthly income of 3000 yuan is pretty good among Chinese people", thereby weakening the upward fighting spirit.
Today we will analyze these data to answer why these data cannot shake "The living standards of Chinese people are second only to developed countries in the world, and together with a few countries, they are the highest in many developing countries in the world100 , and the fact that it is the most promising candidate country to join the ranks of developed countries in the next two to thirty years.
For example, we often see that only 130 million Chinese people have passports, less than 9% of the population.
In fact, we need to know that there is a kind of data that is interval or critical. , that is to say, once the critical point is passed, substantial growth will occur.
For example, assume that there are 10 people in a department with a monthly salary of 5,000-8,000 yuan, and
2 people with a monthly salary of 8,000-10,000 yuan. As the department announces the full A 10% salary increase for employees will result in 4 people crossing the 8,000 yuan monthly salary line, which will increase the number of people with a monthly salary of 8,000-10,000 yuan from 2 to 6, a 200% increase, far exceeding the 10% of the department. Revenue growth rate.
Let’s look at the first data first:
Passport ownership is a typical example. Once the income of our country’s citizens crosses a certain critical point, the number of people applying for passports and wanting to travel abroad will increase significantly.
We can easily find the data on the 130 million people who have passports. The data is from the end of 2016.
" People's Daily "Reported on February 7, 2017,
"A few days ago, reporters learned from the Ministry of Public Security: In recent years, the number of mainland residents entering and leaving my country has increased year by year. In 2016, the number of valid ordinary passports held by mainland residents for private purposes reached 129 million. There are 153 tourist destination countries.”
Based on the 1.38271 billion people in the country at the end of 2016, the proportion of people with passports in the population was 9.33%.
What’s interesting is that the 2018 tourism report I found online said that the number of passport holders nationwide in 2018 was 129 million, and the 2016 data was regarded as 2018. This shows that the author of this report was a little careless.
According to a report by Xinhuanet on September 26, 2019, the number of passport holders in my country will exceed 200 million by the end of 2019. If calculated based on the population of 1.4 billion, it will account for 14.3% of the total population.
In just three years, the number of passport holders increased by 55%, far exceeding the GDP growth rate.
It is estimated that 240 million people will have passports by the end of 2020, which is 17.1% of the population.
Of course, it seems that the proportion is still very low, so let’s compare it with the United States.
The picture below shows the proportion of passport holders in the United States to the population. If our country’s proportion is 14.3% by the end of this year, it is equivalent to the United States. From the level of 1996 (13%) to 1997 (15%), if our country reaches 17.1% by the end of next year, it will be equivalent to the level of the United States in 2000 (17%).
In addition, in the United States, by 2017, 42% of all Americans had passports, that is, most Americans did not have passports.
There are many things, we take it for granted that the nationals of developed countries must have coverage 100% . In fact, this is wrong , most Americans have never been abroad , although the income of Americans is among the top ten in the world, per capita More than $60,000.
This week, the incident of 39 Asians being smuggled to death in a refrigerated truck shocked China and the UK. The initial report said that these people were all Chinese, but now, more and more evidence shows that these people are not Chinese. They are Vietnamese, and so far, no family members in the country have spoken out. However, Vietnamese families are constantly reporting missing family members. The possibility that they are Chinese is getting smaller and smaller. I believe it will be fully confirmed in a few days.
To be honest, I was a little surprised when I first saw the report that all the 39 deceased were Chinese.
Because normally, according to the data, once the gap in per capita GDP narrows to about four or five times, people will be smuggled out of China. It is not economically worthwhile to work part-time, mainland China and Taiwan This is a good example. More than ten years ago, Taiwan news about illegal immigrants from the mainland was a hot topic. Therefore, many shelters were built to accommodate illegal immigrants from the mainland. However, by 2010, news about illegal immigrants from the mainland rarely appeared in the news. Taiwan has been reported in the media, and smuggling has basically stopped.
At that time, the per capita GDP comparison between mainland China and Taiwan was about four times (4524.06 USD vs. 19261.67USD).
Source of the picture below Source: Taiwan Ocean Commission and Coast Guard
Compared with developed countries in Europe, America and Japan,
my country's per capita GDP in 2018 was US$9,635, and this year it is expected to be almost US$10,000.
The threshold of per capita GDP in developed countries is US$20,000. We have raised the comparison standard and calculated it based on US$40,000 per capita in developed countries (Japan’s per capita GDP in 2018 was US$3.93050,000 US dollars), which is almost four times that of ours.
is about four times the per capita GDP, so it is obviously not that cost-effective for Chinese people to smuggle people to developed countries now.
The median income of ordinary people in developed countries in Europe, the United States and Japan , if converted into RMB, is about 15,000-20,000 per month. For example, the median monthly salary of people in Hong Kong next door in 2018 is 17,500 Hong Kong dollars, almost 16,000 RMB.
In Europe, the UK is a country with a decent income. In 2018, the per capita GDP was US$42,560, which is 4.42 times that of my country.
The picture below is the information I found from the official website of the British Bureau of Statistics. The median weekly income in 2018 is £569.
is converted into a monthly salary based on today's 9.12 exchange rate, which is about 20,800 yuan a month.
We assume that illegal workers can reach the median level of British society (of course it is doubtful whether illegal workers can get this money), then the monthly income of is 20,800 yuan, which is more than 200,000 yuan a year. It seems It seems okay, but the price paid is very high.
One is the high intermediary smuggling fee, which means that the first two years are basically used to pay off the debt. But if you are accidentally discovered by the police and deported in the past two years, it will be completely in vain. .
One is labor risk. Working illegally means a lack of bargaining power, and you may encounter ultra-low wages, long working hours and unpaid wages. Especially when the local economy is in recession, it is not easy to find a job, and stowaways are often harassed by their employers. Bullying news is not new.
One is the price cost. You earn more than 200,000 yuan a year, but local prices are higher. Even if you scrimp on food and housing and save money, if you get sick, it will be a high expense. If developed countries in Europe, America and Japan do not have medical insurance , there is no good thing in China that can cure a cold for just a few dozen yuan.
One is the emotional cost. If you don’t have an identity, you can’t fly back to your country. You can only stay there for a long time without returning home. So how many years do you plan to not return to your country? Three years is definitely not enough. We just paid off the debt not long ago, and five years is not enough. The money saved is not enough. So, are you prepared not to go home for eight or even ten years? You went out to work illegally in your twenties and never found a partner to marry?
Finally, there is the opportunity cost, which is more important.
The per capita GDP US$10,000 is only the national average in China. If you are willing to leave your hometown to increase your income, you can work in a large city with a relatively high income in China, such as first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities. The per capita GDP is already 20,000 US dollars, which is close to . The level of in Greece, Portugal and other entry-level developed countries has already entered the threshold of the per capita GDP of developed countries . . If you deliver food in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, you can earn a monthly salary of 5,000-10,000 yuan if you work hard. It can be achieved, and you don’t have to pay any smuggling fees. If you want to go home, you can just take the high-speed train. The usual discounted air ticket is a few hundred yuan, which is much cheaper than flying back from Europe and the United States. What’s more, domestic salaries are still rising. After ten years abroad, You have paid too much, and when you come back, you will see the great changes.
Because of this, when the income gap between China and developed countries has been significantly reduced, if various domestic illegal overseas labor agencies want to attract Chinese people to work abroad, they must exaggerate the income levels abroad. As long as Baidu "overseas labor services" , "Work Abroad" can find a lot of such content.
Just this month (October), I followed a foreign video blogger on a certain website, and mentioned that a fan privately messaged her, saying that an intermediary offered to pay only an intermediary fee of 19,800 yuan. It was arranged to earn about 33,000 yuan a month in a European country, and this blogger also categorically said that this was impossible, so don’t be deceived.
We must keep in mind that the median income of ordinary people in developed countries in Europe and the United States is generally 1.50,000-20,000 yuan a month. Almost all the advertisements you see for overseas labor agencies are inevitable. The monthly income of is above 20,000, or above 30,000, which is higher than the local median level. This raises a question mark over and , not to mention . Small companies basically cannot get work visas in Europe, the United States and Japan. , do not easily pay intermediary fees that can easily cost tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan.
This article is intended to clarify some basic facts.
What is the living standard of Chinese people in the world?
In the previous article, I listed the potential countries in the world that are expected to enter developed countries in the next 20 to 30 years. Through the elimination method, we also found that in the world, they are controlled by the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) and IMF (International Monetary Fund) dual-certified 30 multiple Outside of developed countries, only four countries, namely China, Hungary, Poland, and Panama, have a relatively solid hope of becoming developed countries in the future. Among them, Panama has a population of only 3.935 million (statistics in July 2016). , there is no Hong Kong , Singapore has a large population.
In other words, generally speaking, the current living standards of Chinese people are second only to developed countries in the world.
It is among the first-class standards in developing countries. In fact, many Chinese people have discovered after traveling that some The so-called developed economies, that is, countries that are at the entry level among developed economies, will give people the feeling that "the original standard of living is just like this, and it does not feel much better than China, and many places are not as good as China."
In other words, we must have confidence that our country’s national living standards are second only to developed countries, but ahead of most developing countries. Together with a few other three or four countries, we have the highest living standards among developing countries in the world. The basic situation of national living standards in the world is consistent with the facts.
But on the other hand, we can often see various articles listing some data,
such as "Only 130 million Chinese have passports, accounting for only 9% of the population",
"1 billion Chinese have never flown by plane",
"selling bargains" Pinduoduo sales are booming and rising against the trend"
"80% of households have a per capita monthly income of no more than 3000 yuan"
"Only 4% of Chinese people have a bachelor's degree"
then said, "This is the real China." ,
"China's achievements have attracted worldwide attention, but it should also be noted that the Chinese people are far from that wealthy. The numbers are real and cruel."
The above are excerpts from some articles I saw in 2018-2019 out,
to be honest, I I am quite worried that if young people see these things, it will mislead them,
and create a feeling of "It turns out that my monthly income of 3000 yuan is pretty good among Chinese people", thereby weakening the upward fighting spirit.
Today we will analyze these data to answer why these data cannot shake "The living standards of Chinese people are second only to developed countries in the world, and together with a few countries, they are the highest in many developing countries in the world100 , and the fact that it is the most promising candidate country to join the ranks of developed countries in the next two to thirty years.
For example, we often see that only 130 million Chinese people have passports, less than 9% of the population.
In fact, we need to know that there is a kind of data that is interval or critical. , that is to say, once the critical point is passed, substantial growth will occur.
For example, assume that there are 10 people in a department with a monthly salary of 5,000-8,000 yuan, and
2 people with a monthly salary of 8,000-10,000 yuan. As the department announces the full A 10% salary increase for employees will result in 4 people crossing the 8,000 yuan monthly salary line, which will increase the number of people with a monthly salary of 8,000-10,000 yuan from 2 to 6, a 200% increase, far exceeding the 10% of the department. Revenue growth rate.
Let’s look at the first data first:
Passport ownership is a typical example. Once the income of our country’s citizens crosses a certain critical point, the number of people applying for passports and wanting to travel abroad will increase significantly.
We can easily find the data on the 130 million people who have passports. The data is from the end of 2016.
" People's Daily "Reported on February 7, 2017,
"A few days ago, reporters learned from the Ministry of Public Security: In recent years, the number of mainland residents entering and leaving my country has increased year by year. In 2016, the number of valid ordinary passports held by mainland residents for private purposes reached 129 million. There are 153 tourist destination countries.”
Based on the 1.38271 billion people in the country at the end of 2016, the proportion of people with passports in the population was 9.33%.
What’s interesting is that the 2018 tourism report I found online said that the number of passport holders nationwide in 2018 was 129 million, and the 2016 data was regarded as 2018. This shows that the author of this report was a little careless.
According to a report by Xinhuanet on September 26, 2019, the number of passport holders in my country will exceed 200 million by the end of 2019. If calculated based on the population of 1.4 billion, it will account for 14.3% of the total population.
In just three years, the number of passport holders increased by 55%, far exceeding the GDP growth rate.
It is estimated that 240 million people will have passports by the end of 2020, which is 17.1% of the population.
Of course, it seems that the proportion is still very low, so let’s compare it with the United States.
The picture below shows the proportion of passport holders in the United States to the population. If our country’s proportion is 14.3% by the end of this year, it is equivalent to the United States. From the level of 1996 (13%) to 1997 (15%), if our country reaches 17.1% by the end of next year, it will be equivalent to the level of the United States in 2000 (17%).
In addition, in the United States, by 2017, 42% of all Americans had passports, that is, most Americans did not have passports.
There are many things, we take it for granted that the nationals of developed countries must have coverage 100% . In fact, this is wrong , most Americans have never been abroad , although the income of Americans is among the top ten in the world, per capita More than $60,000.
The same applies to Japan. Most Japanese citizens do not have passports and have never been abroad. Is it surprising?
Among developed countries, developed countries in Europe have a higher passport holding rate, but their countries are small, and going abroad is the same as us going out of the province.
For example, according to the BBC report, in 2011, 76% of residents living in England and Wales had a British passport, the rest also had passports from other countries, and only 17% had no passport at all.
“In 2011 - when the last UK census took place - 76% of people in England and Wales held a UK passport. Only 17% had no passport at all."
Let's look at the second data
"One billion Chinese people have never flown." This data is an estimate, but I think it is roughly accurate, because the number of passengers transported by China's civil aviation in 2018 was 610 million. person times, Considering that some people take round-trip flights, as well as foreigners in the country, and frequent flyers who fly multiple times, the actual number of passengers is estimated to be almost 200 million. Taking into account the number of people who have taken flights over the years, there are 1.4 billion Chinese There are 1 billion people who have never flown, and this estimate is not outrageous.
However, when we look at the data, we have to do the following:
International horizontal comparison ,
According to IATA data released by the International Air Transport Association on August 1, 2019,
In 2018, a total of 4.4 billion passengers traveled by air around the world; the market share in the Asia-Pacific region reached 37.1% (1.6 billion passengers, an increase of 9.2% compared with the passenger volume in the region in 2017) and the market share in the European region reached 26.2% % (1.1 billion passengers , an increase of 6.6% compared with the level in 2017)
The market share in North America reached 22.6% (the number of passengers reached 989.4 million, an increase of 4.8% compared with the level in 2017) The market share in Latin America was 6.9% (the number of passengers reached 302.2 million, an increase of 4.8% compared with the level in 2017) Horizontal growth 5. 7%)
The Middle East region has a market share of 5.1% (224.2 million passengers, an increase of 4.0% from the 2017 level)
The African region has a market share of 2.1% (92 million passengers, an increase of 5.5% from the 2017 level) .
We can see that the global air transport market is highly concentrated in developed countries + China,
Europe + North America + China alone account for 62.66% of the world, and plus Japan + South Korea + China Taiwan + China Hong Kong + Singapore +Australia and New Zealand must exceed 70% of the world.
China's 2018 number of passenger trips is almost equal to the sum of the Middle East + Africa + Latin America (618.4 million passengers), while China's population is much smaller than their combined total. It can be said that it will completely overwhelm the developing countries in the world. This year it is expected that It will exceed the sum of these three.
Another factor that cannot be ignored is that China's high-speed rail is the most developed in the world, accounting for more than 70% of the world's total. The United States does not have high-speed rail. Although Europe has it, it is not as dense as our country. In many cases, Europeans take trains too slowly.
High-speed rail has greatly diverted air passenger flow, and it’s not necessarily because you can’t afford to fly.
I always take the high-speed rail from Shenzhen to Changsha, Wuhan, Guiyang, Xiamen and other cities. Unless I can't buy a ticket, it's fast, cheap, and not late. Why should I fly?
On the other hand, the construction of airports in our country is relatively lagging behind. Many cities in our country do not yet have navigation airports. Once the airports are opened, the number of people taking flights will increase significantly.
According to data from the China Civil Aviation Travel Data Research Center,
statistics show that in 2018, the number of domestic travelers in China grew fastest year-on-year in the regions where the top three were all located in areas where newly built airports were built in 2017. For example, when Maotai Airport in Zunyi, Guizhou Province opened in 2017, the number of people departing from Maotai Town, Guizhou Province in 2018 increased by 855% year-on-year; when Wudalianchi Airport in Heihe City, Heilongjiang Province opened in 2017, the number of people departing from Wudalianchi in 2018 increased by more than 806% year-on-year.
So having never flown does not necessarily mean that you cannot afford to fly. It is because of the diversion of high-speed rail and possibly because the airport infrastructure has not kept up.
From a global perspective, the per capita number of flights taken by Chinese people is still the highest among developing countries.
Other similar ones include " selling cheap goods, Pinduoduo sales are booming and rising against the trend"
This is similar to "only 130 million people in China have passports" and "1 billion people in China have never flown",
This shows that there are still a large number of low-income and low-consumption groups in China, and this phenomenon of "low-income and low-consumption groups" exists in all countries in the world. It is just that there are fewer developed countries and more developing countries than ours.
Take Pinduoduo as an example. If Pinduoduo can rise in China, it means that it will also have great opportunities in other developing countries, because the consumption level of other developing countries is not as good as China.
Just make a guess. Consumers in countries such as South Africa, Russia, Brazil , Mexico , Argentina, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines can also purchase very cheap products through the Internet, even if they may be fake. Goods, do you think they will be willing to take the risk to buy them?
In addition, some people believe that the popularity of and Pinduoduo and is a manifestation of consumption upgrading. They believe that although the products on and Pinduoduo are criticized for being fake, overall they are of better quality than those sold in small shops and markets in towns, cities and suburbs. It’s even higher, not to mention pinduoduo itself is also using technology to strengthen control. Compared with Pinduoduo , townships and suburban canteens and markets are the largest sources of low-quality, non-warranty fakes. You can buy paper pumps, maternal and child products, and women's clothing there. , electrical appliances, etc. are not so reassuring. The emergence of and Pinduoduo has well satisfied customer needs.
will not be discussed here.
In developed countries, there are also a large number of low-income and low-consuming groups. Just refer to the madness of ordinary consumers during Black Friday (American version of Double 11) in the United States.
You can find many videos on YouTube of American consumers pushing, insulting, snatching and even fighting each other because of the competition for cheap and discounted products on Black Friday. For example, the picture below is a video I found on YouTube of a consumer fighting for cheap products. Screenshot of a video of fighting each other over limited discounted products. Note the large number of advertisements on the background for special products priced under $10.
When we look at China's problems, we often lack horizontal comparison thinking.
Because we often assume that foreign countries must not have this problem, or foreign countries must have done better than China on this issue. is typical of us. Unexpectedly, most Americans and Japanese do not have passports and have never been abroad. In addition, there seems to be no low-income and low-consumption people abroad. In fact, most of the world's poor people are in foreign countries, not in China.
Let’s look at the third data: only 4% of people in China have a bachelor’s degree.
At the end of 2018, our country’s population was 1.39538 billion people. 4% means 55.81 million people have a bachelor’s degree. In fact, there are more than this number now. But I want to say that it is meaningless for young people to look at this data, because they are mainly competing with their peers.
Calculating national education based on the entire age group cannot reflect the situation of a rapidly developing country.
You must know that when our country was founded in 1949, the average life expectancy was only 35 years old, and more than 80% were illiterate. Calculating education based on the entire age group Of course, the level is at a disadvantage. If you include the hundreds of millions of square dancing aunts, park uncles, and rural elderly people over the age of 40 or 50, the proportion will naturally be very low.
We need to look at the proportion of undergraduates among young people.
In 2010, the number of undergraduate enrollment nationwide was 3.51 million, while the average annual birth population in the three years from 1991 to 1993 was 21.61 million. Therefore, the proportion of undergraduates was 16.24%, and the exclusion error is basically more than 15%.
In 2018, China's general undergraduate enrollment was 4.2216 million, while the three-year average number of births from 1999 to 2001 was 17.63 million, a proportion of 23.9%. Taking into account various errors, it is at least 20% For the above level,
note that this is only for undergraduates. Junior college students also have higher education. my country’s higher education gross enrollment rate in 2018 has exceeded 48%, which is already a very high level in the world. This is the norm for young people in China. .
As a young person, you are actually mainly competing with your peers. For those adults who are forty or fifty years old, whether they have a high degree or a bachelor's degree does not mean much to you. At most, they are not of high quality. Come on. Taking up seats on the bus, taking up the basketball court when dancing, etc. will affect you.
There is also "80% the per capita monthly income of families does not exceed 3000 yuan."
This again per capita disposable income A typical example of misunderstanding the meaning of income ,
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the median per capita disposable income of national residents is 24,336 yuan, an increase of 8.6%, and the average per capita monthly income is 2,028 yuan. However, what is per capita disposable income? What about income?
Residents’ disposable income is the sum of residents’ final consumption expenditures and savings, that is, the income residents can use for discretionary disposal.
The personal tax and social security you pay are obviously not part of your disposable income, and China’s social security and personal tax fund income in 2018 was as high as more than 6 trillion yuan.
Next, everyone in the family is calculated together, including stay-at-home mothers, the elderly, children and the unemployed.
Finally, this is obtained by the National Bureau of Statistics through a sample survey of 160,000 households. This survey will encourage households to keep accounts by providing incentives. Because incentives are not very attractive to middle- and high-income families, some reports will include It is believed that surveys of middle- and high-income households may be under-covered.
Based on the median per capita disposable income of 2,028 yuan and 3 people per family, the monthly median total disposable income of the family is 2,028*3=6,084 yuan.
Note that this is the income after deducting social security and personal taxes paid.
Of course, we must also consider that the per capita disposable income of a family of 6,084 yuan includes transfer income such as medical reimbursements and pensions for the elderly. In 2018, the national social security expenditure was 4.873 trillion yuan (mainly pensions), and the corresponding part is also included in the per capita disposable income of households.
But on the other hand, in 2018, the national household employed population and their units paid more than 6 trillion yuan in social security and personal income tax, which exceeded the 4.873 trillion yuan in pension and medical reimbursement income received by households. In other words, the household employed population The social security and personal taxes paid are more than the pensions received by the elderly in the family and the medical insurance reimbursement income received by the whole family.
Therefore, after offsetting each other, the median household disposable income in 2018 is still higher than 6,084 yuan. We will temporarily calculate it as 6,084 yuan, which is more conservative.
Let’s check that at the end of 2018, China’s employed population was 7.758600 million, while the total population was 1.395 billion, and the employment-to-population ratio was 55.6%. Assuming that each family has about 3 people, the employed population is 1.668 people.
Therefore, the median monthly income of each person in the employed population is 6084/1.668=3647.5 yuan. In fact, the median income of the employed population is higher than this number.
Therefore, it is temporarily believed that the median income of a Chinese person working normally should be between 3,500-4,000 yuan.
Let’s compare this calculated figure with the official figure.
On August 31, 2018, Vice Minister of Finance Cheng Lihua said at a press conference that because China has raised the baseline for individual tax payment from 3,500 yuan to 5,000 yuan, after the amendment to the law, The proportion of personal income tax taxpayers in urban employment will drop from the current 44% to 15%.
In other words, in 2018, those who earned more than 3,500 yuan after deducting social security accounted for 44% of my country’s urban employed people, and about 55% of my country’s employed people were in cities. Therefore, at least 24% of the country’s employed population earned more than 3,500 yuan. Yuan.
Note that the above is only salary income from normal work. Salary income only accounts for 56.3% of my country's per capita disposable income (2017 figures). There are many other people who are not ordinary office workers and also have operating income (roadside Stalls, shops), property income (rent, deposit interest), and part-time income (purchasing agents, Didi, micro-business, live broadcast), to be honest, the individual tax payment situation for these incomes is very poor.
Therefore, it is estimated that the median income of my country’s employed population is more than 3,500 yuan, which is consistent with the above conclusion.
In addition, it is very, very important.
Per capita disposable income only calculates continuous and relatively stable income. Incidental income will not be included, such as income from selling a house, one-time compensation such as demolition money, lottery winnings, wedding bonus, etc. It will not be calculated into per capita disposable income.
The most typical one is the large-scale shanty town reconstruction across the country in the past few years. Tens of millions of households across the country have obtained a large amount of demolition income. This cannot be counted as disposable income. I mentioned in my previous article, My family is also a beneficiary. The old house in the county town was renovated and demolished as a shantytown and received more than 200,000 yuan in compensation, which was the largest income in my parents' lives.
In addition, the income from the sale of houses by Chinese urban residents is not included in the disposable income. In fact, this is a major source of income for a large number of residents in our country. It can even be said to be the largest income in family history for many families.
In addition, the level of Chinese people's feelings about wages can also reflect the actual social situation.
There is a 3000-4,000 yuan effect in my country's major electronics industry OEMs.
Like Foxconn ht In the off-season every year, the monthly income of ml5 is lower than 3000 yuan, that is, when ’s monthly income of is only more than 2,000 yuan, although food and accommodation are basically included (accommodation and canteens are very cheap), and there is not much overtime, there will still be a peak of general worker resignations. , even in Henan Foxconn. In the peak season, when the monthly income is higher than 4,000 yuan, the number of employees leaving their jobs is relatively low.
It shows that the perception of ordinary workers is that 30html a salary of less than 300 yuan is significantly lower than the general social level, so they must seek higher income by leaving their jobs.
Therefore, it is relatively reliable that the national median income of our working people (including salary, interest, part-time jobs, rent, purchasing agents, etc.) is around 3,500-4,000 yuan.
So at this stage, as ordinary working Chinese, we should aim to have a monthly income exceeding the national median of 3500-4000 yuan, let’s count it as 4000 yuan. If you are in a city, the median will be higher than this value.
Note that this income is not just salary, but also includes deposit interest, part-time income, etc.
As for "Chinese people's monthly income is only 2,000 yuan" and "80% of families' per capita monthly income does not exceed 3000 yuan" and so on, we just need to remember that this is not true. If you are young People, do you really think that a monthly income of , 2,000 yuan is okay?
Or you think that a monthly income of 30html is more than half of the Chinese people. This will slow down your progress.
In addition, the median monthly salary of my country's employed population is 4,000 yuan, which is almost one-quarter to one-fifth of the level in developed countries. This judgment is also true from a horizontal comparison, because my country's per capita GDP is only 10,000 US dollars. That’s almost a quarter of the $40,000 typical in developed countries.
like UK GDP per capita in 2018 42,560 US dollars, which is 4.42 times that of our country.
The median income of the British people is about 20,800 yuan a month. If calculated at the same multiple as the per capita GDP, the median monthly income per capita in our country should be 2 .08/4.42=4705.9 yuan. Of course, our country is in the investment accumulation stage, and the proportion of income allocated to individuals is slightly lower. Therefore, it is reasonable to infer that the median monthly income is about , , 4,000 yuan.
While clarifying the basic facts, this article also hopes to establish a basic concept.
When we look at China's development and problems, we must establish the concept of horizontal comparison.
In this way, you can look at things more objectively, and you will know if you are doing well or not by comparing them.
A mindset that has been formed among Chinese people for a long time is that
if China does not do this well, then foreign countries must do well;
if China does this well, then foreign countries must do better. .
But the real world is:
If China does not do this well, then most foreign countries will definitely not do well;
If China does this well, then most foreign countries will not do it well. China is doing well.
This is true regardless of infrastructure, education level, scientific and technological strength, government efficiency and integrity, the gap between rich and poor, industrial development level, national quality, etc.
I have also written in previous articles that when it comes to the quality of Chinese people, the first thing that often comes to the minds of Chinese people is that the quality of Chinese people is low. When talking about foreigners, the first thing that comes to our minds is "high-end talents" and "high quality".
In fact, in reality, the quality of Chinese citizens is better than that of most countries in the world, that is, better than that of most foreigners.
Take foreign students in China as an example. The number of students studying in China is only 500,000, and they are mainly people with bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees. However, the news reports I have read include: train seats are occupied, and it is illegal on the street. Riders openly pushed police officers, evaded fares, made loud noises at night, ate on the subway, took off their shoes on the subway, and were alone on the subway Lying in the position of several people, sexually harassing girls and being deported, teaming up to steal things, giving lectures in class, not paying for taxis, lying about being from an English-speaking country and deceiving parents of students to become foreign teachers, working illegally...
You will find that in some cases The quality problems that exist among Chinese people also exist among highly educated people abroad, and there are many of them.
As soon as we make horizontal comparisons, our self-confidence often comes out, and our understanding of the world becomes more objective. It can also impact and dismantle our stubborn old ideas about foreign countries being good and China being bad. This is a thinking habit we need to develop.
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Other similar ones include " selling cheap goods, Pinduoduo sales are booming and rising against the trend"
This is similar to "only 130 million people in China have passports" and "1 billion people in China have never flown",
This shows that there are still a large number of low-income and low-consumption groups in China, and this phenomenon of "low-income and low-consumption groups" exists in all countries in the world. It is just that there are fewer developed countries and more developing countries than ours.
Take Pinduoduo as an example. If Pinduoduo can rise in China, it means that it will also have great opportunities in other developing countries, because the consumption level of other developing countries is not as good as China.
Just make a guess. Consumers in countries such as South Africa, Russia, Brazil , Mexico , Argentina, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines can also purchase very cheap products through the Internet, even if they may be fake. Goods, do you think they will be willing to take the risk to buy them?
In addition, some people believe that the popularity of and Pinduoduo and is a manifestation of consumption upgrading. They believe that although the products on and Pinduoduo are criticized for being fake, overall they are of better quality than those sold in small shops and markets in towns, cities and suburbs. It’s even higher, not to mention pinduoduo itself is also using technology to strengthen control. Compared with Pinduoduo , townships and suburban canteens and markets are the largest sources of low-quality, non-warranty fakes. You can buy paper pumps, maternal and child products, and women's clothing there. , electrical appliances, etc. are not so reassuring. The emergence of and Pinduoduo has well satisfied customer needs.
will not be discussed here.
In developed countries, there are also a large number of low-income and low-consuming groups. Just refer to the madness of ordinary consumers during Black Friday (American version of Double 11) in the United States.
You can find many videos on YouTube of American consumers pushing, insulting, snatching and even fighting each other because of the competition for cheap and discounted products on Black Friday. For example, the picture below is a video I found on YouTube of a consumer fighting for cheap products. Screenshot of a video of fighting each other over limited discounted products. Note the large number of advertisements on the background for special products priced under $10.
When we look at China's problems, we often lack horizontal comparison thinking.
Because we often assume that foreign countries must not have this problem, or foreign countries must have done better than China on this issue. is typical of us. Unexpectedly, most Americans and Japanese do not have passports and have never been abroad. In addition, there seems to be no low-income and low-consumption people abroad. In fact, most of the world's poor people are in foreign countries, not in China.
Let’s look at the third data: only 4% of people in China have a bachelor’s degree.
At the end of 2018, our country’s population was 1.39538 billion people. 4% means 55.81 million people have a bachelor’s degree. In fact, there are more than this number now. But I want to say that it is meaningless for young people to look at this data, because they are mainly competing with their peers.
Calculating national education based on the entire age group cannot reflect the situation of a rapidly developing country.
You must know that when our country was founded in 1949, the average life expectancy was only 35 years old, and more than 80% were illiterate. Calculating education based on the entire age group Of course, the level is at a disadvantage. If you include the hundreds of millions of square dancing aunts, park uncles, and rural elderly people over the age of 40 or 50, the proportion will naturally be very low.
We need to look at the proportion of undergraduates among young people.
In 2010, the number of undergraduate enrollment nationwide was 3.51 million, while the average annual birth population in the three years from 1991 to 1993 was 21.61 million. Therefore, the proportion of undergraduates was 16.24%, and the exclusion error is basically more than 15%.
In 2018, China's general undergraduate enrollment was 4.2216 million, while the three-year average number of births from 1999 to 2001 was 17.63 million, a proportion of 23.9%. Taking into account various errors, it is at least 20% For the above level,
note that this is only for undergraduates. Junior college students also have higher education. my country’s higher education gross enrollment rate in 2018 has exceeded 48%, which is already a very high level in the world. This is the norm for young people in China. .
As a young person, you are actually mainly competing with your peers. For those adults who are forty or fifty years old, whether they have a high degree or a bachelor's degree does not mean much to you. At most, they are not of high quality. Come on. Taking up seats on the bus, taking up the basketball court when dancing, etc. will affect you.
There is also "80% the per capita monthly income of families does not exceed 3000 yuan."
This again per capita disposable income A typical example of misunderstanding the meaning of income ,
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the median per capita disposable income of national residents is 24,336 yuan, an increase of 8.6%, and the average per capita monthly income is 2,028 yuan. However, what is per capita disposable income? What about income?
Residents’ disposable income is the sum of residents’ final consumption expenditures and savings, that is, the income residents can use for discretionary disposal.
The personal tax and social security you pay are obviously not part of your disposable income, and China’s social security and personal tax fund income in 2018 was as high as more than 6 trillion yuan.
Next, everyone in the family is calculated together, including stay-at-home mothers, the elderly, children and the unemployed.
Finally, this is obtained by the National Bureau of Statistics through a sample survey of 160,000 households. This survey will encourage households to keep accounts by providing incentives. Because incentives are not very attractive to middle- and high-income families, some reports will include It is believed that surveys of middle- and high-income households may be under-covered.
Based on the median per capita disposable income of 2,028 yuan and 3 people per family, the monthly median total disposable income of the family is 2,028*3=6,084 yuan.
Note that this is the income after deducting social security and personal taxes paid.
Of course, we must also consider that the per capita disposable income of a family of 6,084 yuan includes transfer income such as medical reimbursements and pensions for the elderly. In 2018, the national social security expenditure was 4.873 trillion yuan (mainly pensions), and the corresponding part is also included in the per capita disposable income of households.
But on the other hand, in 2018, the national household employed population and their units paid more than 6 trillion yuan in social security and personal income tax, which exceeded the 4.873 trillion yuan in pension and medical reimbursement income received by households. In other words, the household employed population The social security and personal taxes paid are more than the pensions received by the elderly in the family and the medical insurance reimbursement income received by the whole family.
Therefore, after offsetting each other, the median household disposable income in 2018 is still higher than 6,084 yuan. We will temporarily calculate it as 6,084 yuan, which is more conservative.
Let’s check that at the end of 2018, China’s employed population was 7.758600 million, while the total population was 1.395 billion, and the employment-to-population ratio was 55.6%. Assuming that each family has about 3 people, the employed population is 1.668 people.
Therefore, the median monthly income of each person in the employed population is 6084/1.668=3647.5 yuan. In fact, the median income of the employed population is higher than this number.
Therefore, it is temporarily believed that the median income of a Chinese person working normally should be between 3,500-4,000 yuan.
Let’s compare this calculated figure with the official figure.
On August 31, 2018, Vice Minister of Finance Cheng Lihua said at a press conference that because China has raised the baseline for individual tax payment from 3,500 yuan to 5,000 yuan, after the amendment to the law, The proportion of personal income tax taxpayers in urban employment will drop from the current 44% to 15%.
In other words, in 2018, those who earned more than 3,500 yuan after deducting social security accounted for 44% of my country’s urban employed people, and about 55% of my country’s employed people were in cities. Therefore, at least 24% of the country’s employed population earned more than 3,500 yuan. Yuan.
Note that the above is only salary income from normal work. Salary income only accounts for 56.3% of my country's per capita disposable income (2017 figures). There are many other people who are not ordinary office workers and also have operating income (roadside Stalls, shops), property income (rent, deposit interest), and part-time income (purchasing agents, Didi, micro-business, live broadcast), to be honest, the individual tax payment situation for these incomes is very poor.
Therefore, it is estimated that the median income of my country’s employed population is more than 3,500 yuan, which is consistent with the above conclusion.
In addition, it is very, very important.
Per capita disposable income only calculates continuous and relatively stable income. Incidental income will not be included, such as income from selling a house, one-time compensation such as demolition money, lottery winnings, wedding bonus, etc. It will not be calculated into per capita disposable income.
The most typical one is the large-scale shanty town reconstruction across the country in the past few years. Tens of millions of households across the country have obtained a large amount of demolition income. This cannot be counted as disposable income. I mentioned in my previous article, My family is also a beneficiary. The old house in the county town was renovated and demolished as a shantytown and received more than 200,000 yuan in compensation, which was the largest income in my parents' lives.
In addition, the income from the sale of houses by Chinese urban residents is not included in the disposable income. In fact, this is a major source of income for a large number of residents in our country. It can even be said to be the largest income in family history for many families.
In addition, the level of Chinese people's feelings about wages can also reflect the actual social situation.
There is a 3000-4,000 yuan effect in my country's major electronics industry OEMs.
Like Foxconn ht In the off-season every year, the monthly income of ml5 is lower than 3000 yuan, that is, when ’s monthly income of is only more than 2,000 yuan, although food and accommodation are basically included (accommodation and canteens are very cheap), and there is not much overtime, there will still be a peak of general worker resignations. , even in Henan Foxconn. In the peak season, when the monthly income is higher than 4,000 yuan, the number of employees leaving their jobs is relatively low.
It shows that the perception of ordinary workers is that 30html a salary of less than 300 yuan is significantly lower than the general social level, so they must seek higher income by leaving their jobs.
Therefore, it is relatively reliable that the national median income of our working people (including salary, interest, part-time jobs, rent, purchasing agents, etc.) is around 3,500-4,000 yuan.
So at this stage, as ordinary working Chinese, we should aim to have a monthly income exceeding the national median of 3500-4000 yuan, let’s count it as 4000 yuan. If you are in a city, the median will be higher than this value.
Note that this income is not just salary, but also includes deposit interest, part-time income, etc.
As for "Chinese people's monthly income is only 2,000 yuan" and "80% of families' per capita monthly income does not exceed 3000 yuan" and so on, we just need to remember that this is not true. If you are young People, do you really think that a monthly income of , 2,000 yuan is okay?
Or you think that a monthly income of 30html is more than half of the Chinese people. This will slow down your progress.
In addition, the median monthly salary of my country's employed population is 4,000 yuan, which is almost one-quarter to one-fifth of the level in developed countries. This judgment is also true from a horizontal comparison, because my country's per capita GDP is only 10,000 US dollars. That’s almost a quarter of the $40,000 typical in developed countries.
like UK GDP per capita in 2018 42,560 US dollars, which is 4.42 times that of our country.
The median income of the British people is about 20,800 yuan a month. If calculated at the same multiple as the per capita GDP, the median monthly income per capita in our country should be 2 .08/4.42=4705.9 yuan. Of course, our country is in the investment accumulation stage, and the proportion of income allocated to individuals is slightly lower. Therefore, it is reasonable to infer that the median monthly income is about , , 4,000 yuan.
While clarifying the basic facts, this article also hopes to establish a basic concept.
When we look at China's development and problems, we must establish the concept of horizontal comparison.
In this way, you can look at things more objectively, and you will know if you are doing well or not by comparing them.
A mindset that has been formed among Chinese people for a long time is that
if China does not do this well, then foreign countries must do well;
if China does this well, then foreign countries must do better. .
But the real world is:
If China does not do this well, then most foreign countries will definitely not do well;
If China does this well, then most foreign countries will not do it well. China is doing well.
This is true regardless of infrastructure, education level, scientific and technological strength, government efficiency and integrity, the gap between rich and poor, industrial development level, national quality, etc.
I have also written in previous articles that when it comes to the quality of Chinese people, the first thing that often comes to the minds of Chinese people is that the quality of Chinese people is low. When talking about foreigners, the first thing that comes to our minds is "high-end talents" and "high quality".
In fact, in reality, the quality of Chinese citizens is better than that of most countries in the world, that is, better than that of most foreigners.
Take foreign students in China as an example. The number of students studying in China is only 500,000, and they are mainly people with bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees. However, the news reports I have read include: train seats are occupied, and it is illegal on the street. Riders openly pushed police officers, evaded fares, made loud noises at night, ate on the subway, took off their shoes on the subway, and were alone on the subway Lying in the position of several people, sexually harassing girls and being deported, teaming up to steal things, giving lectures in class, not paying for taxis, lying about being from an English-speaking country and deceiving parents of students to become foreign teachers, working illegally...
You will find that in some cases The quality problems that exist among Chinese people also exist among highly educated people abroad, and there are many of them.
As soon as we make horizontal comparisons, our self-confidence often comes out, and our understanding of the world becomes more objective. It can also impact and dismantle our stubborn old ideas about foreign countries being good and China being bad. This is a thinking habit we need to develop.
Hot articles
(click on the title to view)
"Tsinghua University reappears the "fighting of gods"! 》
《Ren Zhengfei’s 75th birthday, Meng Wanzhou wore electronic shackles on her feet and posted on WeChat Moments: Wait for me to come back! 》
《[Weekend] Jane Zhang’s MV won the “Oscar” in the design world》
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