SBF believes that Bitcoin will gradually recover from the major liquidation, and the end of the liquidation is a big plus.
American business magazine "Fortune" conducted an exclusive interview with SBF on August 2, using "The Next Buffett" as the title of the interview, and put SBF on the cover of Fortune, which symbolizes that FTX has become the most influential encryption company in the world. enterprises, while SBF is the representative figure of the industry.
The following is the summary of the interview:
Afro Otaku + White Knight
"Fortune" describes SBF as a nice, slovenly Afro otaku whose hobbies are LOL (League of Legends) and fidget spinners. The above characteristics make him see He doesn’t look like the most powerful person in the crypto industry at all. However, under the otaku appearance, SBF founded Alameda Research, the most successful crypto quantification company, and FTX, the crypto derivatives trading platform known as the “best in history.”
In addition to being a crypto billionaire (worth approximately $11.5 billion), SBF has recently acquired a new identity: the white knight of the crypto industry, rescuing some crypto startups from liquidation crises.
Liquidation is positive, BTC may fall to $10,000
SBF admitted that although he predicted the bear market was coming, he did not expect it to be in the form of large-scale liquidation, nor did he expect it to be so bad. Nonetheless, he believes that two-thirds of the reason why the crypto market has fallen so much is because of the general global economy, and the other third is due to problems in the crypto market itself.
"The worst is over. Of course there may be other liquidations, but they won't be as bad as before. I think this bear market is a healthy reshuffle for the crypto industry. People may rethink assets. The valuation method will also become more down-to-earth.”
Although I feel that the worst moment is over, SBF believes that the overall economy is the bigger variable.
He predicts that if the Nasdaq index falls by 25% and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 7%, the world may experience a recession of about two and a half years.
If this were to happen, Bitcoin could fall to roughly $10,000 to $15,000. Additionally, there may be a new round of liquidation.
Others are afraid and I am greedy?
As we all know, SBF has recently invested in a number of troubled companies, such as BlockFi and Voyager Digital. Regarding these investments, Fortune believes that this is a practice of the famous saying of Warren Buffett: I am greedy when others are fearful.
SBF also explained his strategy for acquiring shares.
The first consideration is whether users of those companies can get their assets back, and the second is whether this transaction can prevent serial liquidations. The last thing is whether FTX can have some "good feedback" in these transactions.
"Our mission is not to make amazing acquisitions. The logic here is to make some reasonable transactions, even transactions that are a little bit bad but we can afford it."
An unnamed senior industry source told Fortune that SBF's generosity He got many things from the donation, including many debts of gratitude.
In addition to hoping that the future will be as the unnamed person said, SBF also explained the reason for its generosity: trust.
Lack of trust is a huge transaction cost This is a lesson SBF learned when he first started doing business.
"A big part of the reason is trust.
When I was trading in the past, I really didn’t want to worry about whether the other party would use 20 ways to trick me behind my back that I didn’t expect. If both parties lack trust, then this deal The deal won't work, right?
So, SBF In these acquisitions, we will set a standard and cooperate in a reasonable way to show the other party that FTX is not behind the scenes.
"Think about things from a mutually beneficial perspective, and then we can start thinking about how to divide the cake together.
Atypical Crypto Heroes
The crypto community usually likes to embrace heroes, such as Satoshi Nakamoto , or the founder of Binance Exchange Changpeng Zhao .
Although SBF seems to be becoming an object of worship in the crypto community, he has done things that some cryptocurrency heroes (originally known as Crypto bro) would not do, such as donating to Biden in the 2020 election Politics payment.
Fortune commented that SBF is now a leader in the encryption community, but it may also cause dissatisfaction among some encryption believers.
Compared with those heroes in the currency circle who entered the blockchain industry for the reasons of "changing the world" and "overthrowing the government", SBF entered the currency circle purely because he saw opportunities to make money. And altruism means making as much money as possible to give back to society.
Fortune believes that SBF is different from many people in the crypto community. They do not consume luxury goods such as yachts, sports cars, and parties. Instead, they promise to donate most of their property because they believe in altruism.
"I will say this: I will do the right thing for people who truly believe in this industry. I believe in blockchain because technology is really useful and can make the world better in concrete ways.
I think I am an example of a group of people who believe in this industry, even if these people have different perspectives on the industry. "
Will the world view of the encryption community lead to a more chaotic world?
The next question is a bit serious and a bit philosophical.
Fortune believes that the world is on fire now, with the rise of authoritarianism, climate crisis, etc., so some form of collectivism is needed at this time, that is, everyone needs to consider the overall interests and make decisions Decisions that are beneficial to the whole.
But the encryption community happens to be liberal and individualistic oriented towards personal interests.
Fortune raises the question: Is it possible that the rise of crypto (currencies) will lead to a decline in civil order?
SBF thinks this question is a bit strange. He believes that both collectivism and individualism can resist authoritarianism. Collectivism will consider the best interests of the group and resist authoritarianism, while the individualism represented by cryptocurrency hates authoritarianism from the bottom of its heart, which to a certain extent also resists authoritarianism.
SBF believes that a large part of the problems in the modern world come from domineering and trampling on other ethnic groups, which is what the encryption community hates. But at the same time, we also need to participate in and face the problems of this world together.
"You have to be involved. Cryptocurrencies may be the answer to some of the problems, but they won't be all the answers. It's unlikely that a single tool will solve all the problems."
Can Bitcoin hit $100,000 in two years?
SBF Finally, as requested by Fortune, analyzed the future prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
SBF believes that Ethereum is difficult to predict. With the upcoming merger, Ethereum will fluctuate more violently, but he cannot be sure in which direction.
Compared with Ethereum, Bitcoin is easier to predict, but the main premise is that the overall economy will not worsen.
SBF believes that Bitcoin will gradually recover from the major liquidation, and the end of the liquidation is a big plus.
In addition, the regulatory structure of Bitcoin has gradually become clearer, which is a bullish external impact. So if there is a bigger regulatory tailwind next year, with luck, Bitcoin could really reach $100,000.
"Regulation is an external shock and is bullish for Bitcoin, so if there is a major regulatory bullishness next year, with luck, we may really see $100,000 next year. But you know, it is difficult to predict.
But if you told me at the end of the year that Bitcoin might reach $35,000 next year, I would think there is a chance."
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