The Shanghai Index fluctuated and weakened today, closing slightly down 0.74%, falling below the 2900 integer mark, closing at 2882.23 points; the GEM Index trended even weaker, closing down 1.61%, closing at 1606.12 points. The total transaction volume in the two cities was 380.2 billion yuan. Industry sectors were mixed, and low-priced stocks were active. Lotus Health, Tianjin Songjiang, Zhongjie Resources, Shunwei Shares, Junior Water, Chongqing Road and Bridge, Tengda Construction , Jian Ruiwo Many low-priced stocks such as Neng, Huasu Holdings, Jinbin Development , and Mengzhou Shares have reached their daily limit.
Institutions have expressed their opinions on the market outlook.
Founder Securities : There may be two trends in the market outlook
From a technical perspective, the Shanghai Stock Index is currently bottoming out and rising on a weekly basis. Short-term market shocks will intensify, but the rebound trend has not changed.
The current A-share market is undergoing positive changes, thereby increasing investors' optimistic expectations for future market trends.
changes bring an inflection point. From the large-scale targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts to the large-scale release of fixed deposit funds from the treasury, to the central bank's window guidance to support loan issuance and credit bond investment, and to guide the central bank of capital interest rates to fall, market liquidity has shown signs of improvement. The increase in the amount of market funds and the decrease in price are intended to avoid fluctuations in liquidity, ease market sentiment, and help the market reach an inflection point after the bottom area is discovered.
changes bring advancement. New rules and regulations for asset management were released last weekend, which have significant changes compared with before. For example, public offerings can be appropriately non-standard, financial institutions can issue old products to invest in new assets during the transition period, and financial institutions can independently determine rectification plans. With the expected marginal improvement in the financial sector, it will catalyze the market and bring about an improvement.
There may be two trends in the market outlook: one is to continue to rebound, and then conduct shock consolidation near 3000 points, exchanging time for space. This kind of trend has a long cycle, such as the range-bound market from 2013 to 2014. The other is to rebound quickly and then have a second shock, forming a "W" trend. This kind of trend cycle is short, such as the bull market in 2005. Judging from the current market conditions, the probability of the first trend in the market outlook is relatively high. But no matter what, the market is currently at the bottom area, and the short-term market is expected to continue to rebound. In terms of
operation, the index is light and individual stocks are heavy. On dips, focus on high-quality stocks that have been mistakenly killed due to recent continuous large adjustments, and avoid defensive varieties that have not been adjusted in place.
Guotai Junan: rebound rather than reverse
The new asset management regulations will help increase the market risk appetite on the denominator side, thus becoming an important force driving the recent market rebound. However, relevant policy details are still generally expected, deleveraging in the financial sector will continue to advance, and structural adjustments will still be made in related fields in the process. Investors need to wait for a new round of credit expansion after de-leveraging, that is, the focus in the future will be on the credit expansion of the public sector. Therefore, despite the marginal improvement in recent policy expectations, the market has only rebounded rather than reversed.
is an important disturbing factor in the recent market, and the current overseas uncertainty has not been completely resolved. Investors should also pay close attention to this, which will inhibit the continued boost of market risk appetite.
With the periodic warming of policy expectations, the short-term market will usher in a rebound. In this process, structure is more important than position. On the one hand, the consumer sector that was heavily grouped in the early stage has major micro-transaction structure problems, which can easily cause chain effects in the process of market structure adjustment. On the other hand, the market's expectations for steady growth in the consumer sector have fluctuated. On the contrary, during the phased restoration of market risk appetite, the valuation-sensitive "TMT in manufacturing" sector (computer, electronics, communications, military, Machinery, etc.) is expected to benefit from the risk appetite repair logic, and the current trading structure is good. In terms of
theme investment, we recommend sectors such as rural revitalization strategy and nuclear power. Individual stocks that have been significantly adjusted due to the impact of stock pledges in the early stage may have opportunities for recovery.
Xiangcai Securities: The market direction may gradually become clear
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have rebounded recently. The main reasons are as follows:
First, after a relatively sufficient shock adjustment in the early stage, the current valuation level of the A-share market has Being in the historical bottom area, it has obvious advantages from a valuation perspective.
Second, the "one bank and two meetings" last weekend released the implementation details of the new asset management regulations on the same day, showing that policy expectations have improved, which will help to increase market liquidity expectations and restore market risk appetite.
Third, there are requirements for marginal improvement after the market sentiment falls. At the same time, the decline in the balance of financing and financing has also begun to slow down, indicating that investors’ enthusiasm for participation has increased.
Fourth, judging from the semi-annual report previews of A-share companies and the semi-annual reports that have been disclosed, the performance growth of listed companies in the first half of the year is improving.
Fifth, there are no recent signs of external disturbances expanding, and their impact on the market is in the process of being gradually resolved.
Sixth, judging from the recently released macroeconomic data, my country's economic growth still maintains strong resilience.
Regarding the market outlook, from the perspective of factors affecting the market, factors such as low points, low valuations, and improved policy expectations are expected to prompt the market to interpret the risk appetite restoration market. With the release of economic data in July, the successive disclosure of the performance of listed companies in semi-annual reports, and the continuous implementation of relevant policies, the market direction may gradually become clear.
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