On Wednesday (August 24), international gold prices came under pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened again after Fed officials issued hawkish remarks. But investors are cautious ahead of the annual global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole later this week. The U.S. dollar index closed down nearly 0.4% overnight, although it was close to the nearly 20-year high of 109.30 set on July 14. The speech that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting of Global Central Banks on Friday (August 26) will attract much attention, and investors will look for more clues about the outlook for interest rates.
Analysts believe: "We are not surprised by the brief fluctuations in foreign exchange markets after the release of PMI data, as the macro situation and strong hawkish expectations ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting should make the dollar widely sought after... If Fed Chairman Powell on Friday Sticking to his hawkish tone, the U.S. Dollar Index could still reach 110.00 by the end of the week. "Despite signs of easing in U.S. inflation, investors appear convinced that the Fed will stick to its tightening policy path. These bets have been reaffirmed by recent hawkish comments from several Fed officials, which should provide a boost to the dollar. Market analysts said: "Powell's upcoming speech is an important thing for the market, and investors are expecting the Fed to reveal some kind of policy guidance or framework. Overall, the macro environment is not substantially different at this stage. , the outlook for gold is still very bearish. "
From a technical point of view, gold's daily level fluctuates and falls; MACD is dead cross , KDJ is dead cross, 5 daily moving average . It crosses the 10-day moving average, and the 10-day moving average crosses the 21-day moving average. The gold price is below the middle track of the Bollinger Band . Short-term shorts are still in the upper hand. The downside risk in the market outlook still exists, and the bias is to fall further below the Bollinger Band. track, the support is currently around 1702.28; in the short term, there is still some support near this week's low of 1727.69. If this support is lost, short-term bearish signals will be added, and further support will be near the low of 1711.38 on July 27.
However, after falling for six consecutive trading days, the gold price rebounded on the previous trading day. KDJ has the trend of golden cross . There is still an opportunity for further rebound and adjustment in short-term gold price. The initial resistance is near the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 1758.28 and the 10-day moving average. The resistance is near 1764.33. Before regaining this position, the market outlook will still tend to fluctuate downward; the 21-day moving average resistance is near 1768.40, and the 55-day moving average resistance is currently near 1775.47. If this position can be regained, it will increase the bullish signal in the market outlook. On the hourly chart, gold prices have found support near $1,730, and after adjustment are expected to end in the range of $1,754-1,758. Looking at the daily line, the price of gold started the adjustment ((ii)) wave from US$1,808, found support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of US$1,729 in wave (i), and is trying to stabilize at 50% of wave (i). Fibonacci retracement level is $1,744. To sum up, in terms of gold's operation idea today, Zhang Kaihan suggested that the rebound should be mainly high, and the callback should be supplemented by low longs. The top should focus on the first-line resistance of 1768-773, and the bottom should focus on the first-line support of 1735-1740 in the short term.
On Wednesday (August 24), international oil prices hit a new high in more than three weeks, continuing the overnight surge. As positive news continues to come out of the restart process of the Iran nuclear deal, investors are worried that major oil-producing countries may initiate new potential production cuts. The recent surge in natural gas prices has also boosted expectations of tightening crude oil supply. The two major markets rose nearly 4% overnight. Previously, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdul Aziz, the actual leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said that the organization may cut supply to balance the market. He said the oil market has fallen into "schizophrenia", with derivatives and spot prices becoming increasingly disconnected. Analysts said: "While Abdulaziz's comments may be about more than setting a floor for crude oil prices, we expect it to follow the law of diminishing returns unless OPEC+ sends more signals or takes action to limit production."
News Sources say new potential production cuts from OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) may not be imminent. If Iran reaches a consensus with the West to restart the nuclear agreement, the country may return to the oil market. “OPEC+ should prepare for the lifting of the ban on Iranian oil exports.Analysts said: "Many investors know that even if the 2015 nuclear agreement is immediately restored, it will take several months for Iranian oil to flow into the international market, which means that OPEC+ will not cut production so quickly." Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.632 million barrels in the week to August 19, while analysts estimated a decline of 1.5 million barrels, underscoring the tight supply. Although gasoline and distillate stocks Increase.
From a technical point of view, the daily level of crude oil fluctuated and bottomed out; oil prices fluctuated and rebounded after hitting 85.71 last week, and the MACD golden cross diverged, KDJht The ml2 golden cross diverges, and the 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day moving average to form a golden cross. The short-term bottom is expected to be successful. Pay attention to the resistance near the 200-day moving average of 95.69. If this resistance can be broken, it will increase the bullish signal in the market outlook, and the mid-line will even test upward. 100-day moving average Resistance is near 103.83. In the short term, there are still certain resistances near the high of 96.54 on August 3, the high of 98.60 on August 1, and the 55-day moving average of 100.51. Before breaking through the 200-day moving average, oil prices may still maintain a low and volatile trend. The 21-day moving average support below is currently around 91.80, the 10-day moving average support is around 90.64, and then the 90 mark support. If the oil price falls back below this position, then Weakening the short-term bullish signal, on the hourly chart, NYNEX oil prices started an upward wave III trend from $86.29, rising above the 138.2% target level of 94. 51 US dollars, and is expected to further reach the 161.8% target level of 95.92 US dollars. The iii wave is the sub-wave of the upward wave (i) starting from 85.74 US dollars. On the whole, Zhang Kaihan's short-term operation idea today is to rebound high and call back. Lows and longs are supplemented. The upper short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 98.8-99.3, and the lower short-term focus is on the first-line support of 91.5-91
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