01 Crude oil hit a new high
The money-making effect of today's market is relatively poor. GEM fell nearly 2%, Ningwang fell more than 4%, which was the culprit, directly leading to the collapse of new energy sector .
Amid the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, crude oil prices stood at US$110, a new high since 2014.
Crude oil is the mother of inflation . The short-term price rise is too high, which is not a good thing.
First of all, it is negative for companies with a high proportion of raw material costs.
The short-term crude oil price has risen too high, which has directly caused the raw material costs of many companies to rise by 30%-50% and gross profit margins to fall by 10%-15%. The performance in the first quarter of this year is not optimistic, such as in the building materials, aviation and other sectors.
Secondly, crude oil has brought inflationary pressure to the world, which directly strengthens the Fed interest rate hike expectations in March .
If the Federal Reserve intensifies its efforts to raise interest rates in March, it will be very unfriendly to high-valued track stocks. This is also a risk we should pay attention to.
After talking about risks, let’s talk about the next opportunities.
The domestic economy is unstable this year, and the real estate decline is still serious; abroad, there are U.S. dollar interest rate hikes and conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, so A shares are destined to be more difficult to deal with. The real opportunities for
are in sectors with good logic, high certainty, and reasonable valuations. For example, the wind power and photovoltaic sectors have benefited from geopolitical wars.
At present, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has started again. After the first negotiation, the two sides would calm down. Unexpectedly, the confrontation continued to heat up; Russia continued to fight, and European and American sanctions continued to increase.
What’s more unexpected is that even Russian cats will not be spared.
In the short term, this crisis is unlikely to end in the short term, and it has also brought more uncertainty to A shares.
wishes the world peace as soon as possible. At the same time, Russia's experience also reminds us of the importance of independence and control. We can also pay attention to this opportunity.
02 Veteran Driver Chat Section
It’s already March this year, and everyone knows the market situation. It’s not going well, and it’s even a little difficult.
This is also related to the current general environment. Uncertain factors such as external wars, U.S. interest rate hikes and economic instability have greatly affected the market's bullish sentiment.
There is a high probability that it will be difficult to replicate the big market trends of the past two years this year. We need to appropriately lower our expectations, improve stock selection standards, and select the best from the best. In particular, we must pay attention to the matching between prosperity and valuation.
The market is very sensitive at this stage. If the valuation is too high and the prosperity is not good, then it will be a direct kill. The upcoming quarterly report of
is the best alchemy stone. Sectors with performance and valuation will stand out and become the new market mainline again.
Taking everything into consideration, ’s current photovoltaic boom is good, its valuation is relatively reasonable, and it is likely to become the main line of the market in the future.
Photovoltaics currently have two major benefits, one is short-term and the other is long-term.
In the short term, ’s photovoltaic installed capacity in the first quarter significantly exceeded market expectations . This has been briefly mentioned before.
There is a very important logic behind this, which is likely to continue to support the rapid growth of photovoltaics this year, that is, the decline in the price of silicon materials and components can effectively stimulate the installed capacity of downstream photovoltaics. There is demand for
and it has solid fundamentals. It is only a matter of time before it goes up.
I made some statistics. From the end of 2021 to now, the price of silicon material has dropped from 260 yuan/kg to 220 yuan/kg, and the component price has dropped by 1-2 gross/W. The upstream price reduction of
directly led to the yield rate of downstream photovoltaic power stations reaching 8%-10%, and enthusiasm for installation was suddenly ignited.
In the long term, global photovoltaic installations are accelerating, and energy security is the biggest theme.
Affected by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, European countries have realized the importance of energy security. Germany has directly advanced its green power plan by 15 years. It is believed that other European countries will also accelerate their green power plans in the future.
The advancement of the schedule means that the demand for wind power and photovoltaics will also advance.Some organizations have calculated that the annual growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity in Germany in the next few years will be 32%, which is still a large increase.
The main global photovoltaic production capacity is in China, so domestic photovoltaic companies are the most benefited from the European green power plan.
In short, the short-term photovoltaic installed capacity exceeds expectations, the first quarter performance is guaranteed, medium and long-term global energy security is the general trend, the demand for photovoltaics is accelerating, and photovoltaics is the most promising sector this year.
focuses on photovoltaic operators Chint Electric , Jinko Technology and Zhonglai Shares .
03 Old driver data
[Market transaction data]
[Major shareholder increase]
Pension fund newly entered Tianhua Super Clean, increase position Xingqi Eye Drops
[Focus on industries]
has sorted out the core concept stocks of the consumer, pharmaceutical, and home building materials industries that have reversed their difficulties, as well as the booming lithium battery, photovoltaic, and power industries.
For more investment opportunities to share, please pay attention and communicate.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for communication only and does not constitute investment advice to anyone. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious
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