Liu Qiannan
Investment consulting license number: Z0014425
shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI index on August 23 was 1271 points, +0.1% month-on-month, -68.9% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of August 19th was 3429.83 points, -3.7% month-on-month, -21.0% year-on-year, of which Shanghai- The US-West container freight rate is US$5,782/FEU, -6.0% month-on-month, and -2.4% year-on-year; the Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$4,788/TEU, -3.7% month-on-month, and -35.3% year-on-year.
3. In July 2022, the global crude steel output of the 64 countries included in the statistics of the World Steel Association was 149.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. Among them, in July 2022, China's crude steel output was 81.4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; India's crude steel output was 10.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.
4. On August 23, the monthly report released by the Bundesbank showed that the German economy may fall into recession this winter, and the inflation rate, which has exceeded 7% for five consecutive months, is likely to reach 10% in the autumn. The report said experts expect inflation to hit a new high in the fall.
5. As of August 23, the foreign trade import and export status of 31 provinces and cities from January to July 2022 has been released. From the perspective of total import and export value, Guangdong’s total foreign trade import and export value from January to July was 4.60299 billion yuan, ranking first in the country.
6. Last week, the total iron ore inventory in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.223 million tons, an increase of 786,000 tons from the previous month. The total inventory was slightly higher than this year's average level.
7. This week, Mysteel counted 138.59 million tons of iron ore inventory in 45 ports, a month-on-month decrease of 410,000 tons; at the same time, the iron ore inventory in 47 ports was 144.53 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 450,000 tons.
[Market Outlook]
In terms of containers, inflation is expected to reach new highs in the context of the European energy crisis. German electricity prices exceeded the 700 euro mark for the first time. The market expects German inflation to rise to 10% in the autumn. Demand-side pressures in European and American countries are gradually emerging. It is expected that four China's export growth will weaken significantly in the quarter. The European energy crisis and shortage may increase imports of structural categories such as photovoltaics and chemicals in the short term. However, in the long term, an intensifying recession in the context of high inflation will lead to a sharp decline in end demand. It is expected that container freight rates will continue to weaken in the short term. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand pattern of container transportation has reversed, and the medium and long-term weakening trend of freight rates will remain unchanged.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, the recent high temperature weather in the northern hemisphere has been beneficial to the consumption of thermal coal. The daily consumption of domestic power plants has increased. As the high temperature weather eases, demand is expected to fall. The restart of coal in Europe supports coal demand, but in the context of difficulties in inland waterway transportation and port clearance caused by high temperatures and droughts, coal imports are expected to slow down. In terms of iron ore, the demand for steel in the world's major economies has slowed down against the backdrop of recession. The recovery of China's real estate and infrastructure has not exceeded market expectations. The resumption of production of steel plants amid power restrictions is still questionable. Iron ore demand is still facing greater challenges. Pressure, focusing on China's infrastructure development in the second half of the year. In terms of grain, South America's grain demand is average, and Ukraine's grain exports are gradually recovering. The short-term impact of the low water level of the Rhine River on ship navigation continues. According to forecasts, the water level of the Rhine River has dropped again after a brief rise recently. The restriction of port dredging is bad for the demand for dry bulk cargo, and short-term freight rates are expected to continue to be under pressure.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
Overnight the CBOT soybean index fell 0.11% to close at 1,467.9 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index rose 0.68% to close at 428 US dollars/short ton.
[Related information]
1.ANEC: Brazil’s soybean exports in August are expected to reach 5.5 million tons, compared with last week’s forecast of 5.738 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in August are expected to reach 1.9 million tons, compared with last week's forecast of 1.957 million tons. Brazil's corn exports in August are expected to reach 7.5 million tons, compared with last week's forecast of 8.089 million tons;
2. Oil World: Data show that soybean crushing volume in July dropped sharply, to only 3.47 million tons, a four-year low in the same period, compared with It was down 10% the year before. Argentina Farmers' reluctance to sell has made the country a net importer of soybeans and reduced total processing.Since the start of the season in April, soybean crushing volume in April/July has dropped by more than 2 million tons year-on-year, and the recent year-on-year decline has narrowed slightly;
3.Pro farmer: Crop survey results show that in the Ohio region, the corn yield performance may be higher than the three-year estimated average, but has declined compared with the same period last year. The number of soybean pods is lower than last year, but higher than the three-year average, The average of soybean and corn prospects in South Dakota last year and the past three years was affected by late sowing and high temperature and dry weather;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of August 19, domestic soybean stocks were 5.337 million tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from last week, an increase of 0.41%, and a decrease from last year 1.5946 million tons, a decrease of 23%. Soybean meal stocks were 728,500 tons, a decrease of 64,100 tons, or 8.09%, from last week, and a decrease of 244,800 tons, or 25.15% year-on-year.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: Under the combined influence of multiple positive factors, the United States, beans and corn have rebounded significantly. Yesterday, the soybean meal 01 contract increased significantly, and rapeseed meal also rose accordingly. However, we believe that the recent strong event of US soybeans is more driven and sudden. From the perspective of the global balance sheet, it is difficult to support a sustained upward trend, so we do not support reverse long positions. It is recommended to continue to hold early short orders, and the upper pressure level is around 3900-3950;
2. Arbitrage: MRM01 spread widens, RM15 counter
3. Options: sell M2301-C-3700 & buy M2301-P-3650 to hold (view only For reference only, not as a basis for buying or selling)
Oils and fats sector
[External disk influence]
Cbot US soybean oil's main price change range was +0.95% to 66.98 cents/pound; BMD crude palm oil's main price change range was +1.27% to 4291 ringgit/ton.
[Important Information]
1. Indonesia’s Trade Minister said in a statement on Tuesday that India has committed to import 2.6 million tons of palm oil products from Indonesia, worth US$3.16 billion. This is part of several agreements signed by Indonesian ministers during their recent visit to India. However, the above statement did not provide further information on the time and duration of the palm oil exports.
2.MPOA: Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 16.18% in the first 20 days of August, of which Peninsular Malaysia will increase by 11.87%, Eastern Malay will increase by 24.81%, Sabah will increase by 33.36%, and Sarawak will increase by 4.66%. .
3. Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture show that since the Russia-Ukraine conflict earlier this year, Ukraine’s exports of major agricultural products have dropped by nearly half compared with the same period in 2021. Ukraine's agricultural exports include 3.8 million tons of corn, 1.4 million tons of sunflower seeds, nearly 1 million tons of sunflower oil and about 640,000 tons of wheat. According to Ukrainian officials, the country's food production can feed up to 400 million people. In addition, the country also exports barley, soybeans and oils, sunflower seeds and soybean meal.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: 09 contract varieties still have high basis differences, and it is expected that the fluctuation will be stronger and return upward. The overall unilateral outlook for oil and fat is expected to remain range-bound, and we still need to wait for new drivers after the basis returns. Both rapeseed oil and soybean oil will maintain a pattern of tightness at the near-end and looseness at the long-term. The near-end supply conflict of palm oil will be resolved in the short term, while the far-end supply conflict is highly uncertain due to policy and other issues. However, the supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and consumption expectations are relatively pessimistic, because the overall downward trend of oils and fats will not fundamentally change. It is recommended that after the basis returns, try shorting the 01 rapeseed oil contract on rallies.
2. Arbitrage: y2211-y2301 positive set, open a position near 200, and the target point is 350 for the time being.
3. Options: Stay on the sidelines. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Corn/Corn Starch
【Important Information】
1. This week, 89,000 tons of domestic corn arrived at Guangdong ports, 215,000 tons were shipped, and 575,000 tons were carried over, a decrease of 126,000 tons from last week; 134,000 tons of imported corn arrived this week, and 54,000 tons were shipped. tons, with carryover inventory of 296,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous week. This week, Guangdong ports’ domestic and foreign trade corn stocks totaled 871,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week.
2. Guangdong ports imported sorghum and barley stocks totaling 1.143 million tons, of which 1.069 million tons were imported sorghum, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, and 74,000 tons of barley were imported, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The average daily shipments of the two this week were 20,000 tons (week-on-week increase of 0.8) and 2,000 tons (week-on-week decrease) respectively; 205,000 tons of imported sorghum and are expected to arrive next week, and no imported barley will arrive. , the carryover stocks of the two next week will be about 1.12 million tons and 60,000 tons respectively. In terms of spot prices: some traders quoted US sorghum imports at around 2,720 yuan/ton, and spot wheat prices at around 2,860 yuan/ton.
3. The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that China’s corn imports in July were 1.5373 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 30.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.28%. In the first seven months of this year, China's corn imports totaled 15.13 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%. China imported 1.5132 million tons of corn from the United States, a decrease of 26.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 39.65%. Most of China's corn imports that month came from the United States, accounting for 98% of total imports. In addition, according to USDA data, it is estimated that 720,000 tons of U.S. corn will arrive in Hong Kong in August. At the same time, Ukrainian grain exports are also gradually recovering. Since August, 16 ships carrying 450,000 tons of agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Crop inspections show that the current corn yield in the affected areas is lower than expected, and US corn futures prices have hit a new high in the recent rebound. Corn surplus continues to be consumed. Rainfall in the Northeast and high temperatures in the southern Huanghuai River have a certain adverse impact on output. However, demand is still weak. The spot corn market is running weakly. However, the futures price has reflected the more pessimistic expectations and is expected to rebound in shock.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Buy c2301-C-2800. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
pigs
[Market information]
1. Spot quotation: The quotation for the purchase of pig slaughtering continued to increase yesterday evening. Among them, the price of pigs in Northeast China is 21.4-21.8 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg; in North China, it is 21.4-22.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg; in East China, it is 21.8-22.2 yuan/kg, up. Up 0.6 yuan/kg; 23.6-24.2 yuan/kg in South China, up 0.4 yuan/kg, 21.4-21.8/kg in southwest China, up 0.4 yuan/kg;
2. Piglet and sow prices: As of the week of August 18, the sow price was 1,832 yuan, down 16 yuan, and the piglet price was 681 yuan, down 47 yuan;
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index 200" was 123.90, an increase of 0.42 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 125.13, an increase of 0.43 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 28.91 yuan/kg, up 1.2%; beef 77.15 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton 67.02 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; eggs 10.77 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; white strip chicken 19.10 yuan/kg, up 1.1%;
4. Boya Hexun: Most of the quotations of large-scale farms have increased, and the premium phenomenon in the north has increased. The market price rise has exceeded expectations; some areas in southwest and southern China have been affected by the start of school, and consumption has improved slightly; retail investors are less enthusiastic about selling pigs, and large-scale farms have reduced their enthusiasm for selling pigs. Bidding enthusiasm has increased, butchery companies have become more difficult to purchase, and butchery companies have increased their prices for purchases. As the weather turns cooler in the future, the demand for large pigs will increase, and the price of large pigs will also be higher than that of standard pigs. Recently, the supply of secondary fattening pigs of 80-100kg has increased in the market, which has certain support for pig prices.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: It is recommended that long orders in the early stage of the 01 contract can still be held;
2. Arbitrage: 11-3 positive set (the above opinions are for reference only and are not intended to be entered into) City basis)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The price of Shandong broiler chicken is expected to stabilize to 4.6 yuan/jin tonight. ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feather broiler chicks: Tomorrow, the price of chicken chicks from Shandong Dachang will stabilize at 3.3 yuan/feather. (Zhuo Chuang Information)
3. Split products: On August 23, the price of frozen breasts was stable, and the price of frozen breasts in North China and Northeast China was 10.6-10.7 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information: In the week from 8/12 to 8/18, Zhuochuang Information monitored the emergence of white-feather broiler sample companies to a total of 50.32 million chickens, a month-on-month increase of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.43%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: In the week of 8/12-8/18, the average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises was 65.29%, a month-on-month increase of 2.82 percentage points; the average storage capacity of frozen products was 71.00%, a month-on-month increase of 2.53 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: China’s white-feathered broiler chicken sales volume in July was 415 million, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. From January to July 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 2.676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.
7. White Feather Broiler Association: The updated number of white feather ancestor chickens (introduction + self-propagation) nationwide in July totaled 22,000 units, -39.7% year-on-year.
[Market Outlook]
In the short term, on the consumer side, the growth rate of catering consumption is still low. Coupled with the recent partial rebound of the epidemic in many regions, chicken consumption is under pressure. At present, the inventory of slaughterhouses continues to rise. Due to the resumption of school in batches in the downstream, dealers have not concentrated on stocking. The overall sales of goods are average. It is expected that the prices of raw chickens and cut products will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the near future, attention will be paid to the stocking situation during the double festival. In the medium and long term, on the supply side, China's white-feathered broiler chicken sales in July were 415 million, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. The sales of raw chickens continue to recover, but it is still not as good as the same period in previous years. With the decline of the number of parents in production in the second half of the year, the supply side of white feathers gradually shrinks. Overall, the price of chicken in the second half of the year will still remain at a high level.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: The price of eggs across the country rose steadily yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas being 4.95 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas being 5.27 yuan/jin. , the price increased by 0.02 from the previous trading day. Today, the price of eggs across the country has increased steadily. The price in the Beijing market has increased slightly. The wholesale price of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream products is 237 yuan/44 pounds, which is 3 yuan higher than yesterday's price. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, the Great Ocean Road has accumulated There are 4 cars of goods, not much has arrived, and the goods are shipped normally. The mainstream wholesale price is 235-245 yuan/44 pounds, which is 5 yuan higher than yesterday's price. Today, the prices in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are up; the mainstream price in Shandong is stable, the price in Henan is stable, the price in Shanxi is up, the price in Hebei is slightly up, the price in Hubei is stable, the prices in Jiangsu and Anhui are mostly stable, and the local egg prices are high and low. Egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate for the better, and shipments are normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in July 2022 was 1.194 billion, an increase of 1.1% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In July, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 34.94 million birds, a decrease of 2.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of August 19 was 18.92 million, a decrease of 3.9% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring statistics on the age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of August 18 was 523 days, which was the same as the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of August 18 were 7,445 tons, an increase of 3.9% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of August 18, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.21 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.86 days. A decrease of 0.1 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 5.76 yuan/jin, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the inventory in production and inventory in July was still relatively low. It is expected that the inventory in production and inventory in the next four months will still be at a historical low for the same period and show a gradual downward trend. The supply of eggs is low. . On the demand side, schools start stocking up before the start of school and then stock up during holidays. Once egg prices fall, the demand side improves and spot prices remain high. In terms of futures and , the spot price is relatively high, but the current egg contract prices this year are at a relatively low level, so you can consider opening long positions on dips.
2. Arbitrage: The current 1-5 spread is at a historical low and has an upward trend. It is recommended to consider going long the 1-5 spread.(The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
白sugar
【Important Information】
1. Export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) showed that Brazil exported 1.9509 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 130,100 tons, which was 11.58% higher than the average daily export volume in August last year. 10,000 tons increased by 12.33%. In August last year, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.5473 million tons. Data released by
2.CFTC shows that as of the week of August 16, the net long positions of raw sugar held by hedge funds and large speculators rebounded from the previous low, with a week-on-week increase of 92% to 49,970 lots, of which many Both short positions and positions fell, long positions decreased by more than 2,000 lots, and short positions reduced by more than 20,000 lots. Previously, U.S. sugar hovered at a one-year low. At the low level, funds were not willing to add short positions, and then gradually closed short positions. With the large reduction in short positions, the net long position in U.S. sugar rebounded last week, but the long position still maintained a downward trend. , the overall bullish atmosphere remains weak.
3. Government agency Conab said in its second estimate for 2022/23 that sugarcane output in the main producing areas of central and southern China was expected to be just 514 million tons, compared with an April forecast of 539 million tons. This figure is lower than the 2021/22 production (525 million tons) affected by the worst drought in 90 years, and is the lowest level since 2011 when central and southern sugar mills crushed 493 million tons of sugar cane. Most independent analysts still put production in the south-central region of Brazil at between 545 and 560 million tons. Brokerage firm StoneX forecasts July sugarcane production at 557.5 million tons. With cane production falling sharply, the government expects sugar production in central and southern China to fall to 30.7 million tons, down 5.7 million tons from April's estimate and down from 32 million tons last year.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Brazil's sugar forecast is lower than market expectations, but the market hopes to wait for clearer guidance on Brazil's crop output, and raw sugar fluctuates slightly. The current market sentiment is pessimistic. Due to the impact of the epidemic during the double festival peak season, consumption may not show a significant improvement. Pay attention to the sales situation in the second half of the month, and futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: wait and see. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton - Cotton Yarn
[External Disk Impact]
The main ICE US cotton contract fluctuated and ended lower overnight. The December contract fell 1.54 cents/pound (-1.35%) to 112.41 US dollars. cents/pound.
[Important information]
1, China Cotton Information Network News, the Agricultural Service (FAS) under the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the latest cotton planting area data reported by cotton farmers. The cotton planting area in the United States is 13.5168 million acres, which is higher than the USDA monthly report in August ( 12.478 million acres), an increase of 1.0388 million acres, an increase of 8.33%. Specifically, the cotton planting area in each state has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the cotton planting area in Texas, the main cotton-producing area, is 7.754 million acres, an increase of 434,000 acres from the USDA monthly report in August (7.32 million acres), an increase of 5.93%. This area data is reported by cotton farmers and is mainly used as a reference for insurance and loans. It does not include other data such as harvested area and output. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of weather conditions on production in the US cotton area.
2, China Cotton Information Network News, on August 22, affected by the surge in cotton prices, the Gujarat Textile Association and the Tamil Nadu Spinning Association in northern India announced that some textile factories affiliated to the associations would reduce cotton consumption and cut cotton yarn production or Discontinued. At present, 90% of the factories in Gujarat have closed down and stopped production. They are selling more early inventory to support the return of yarn prices on track and reduce the pressure of high factory operating costs. In this regard, the South India Spinning Association (SISPA) stated that factory production is difficult. It's the same thing in the south.
3. Since early August, more than 80% of cotton processing enterprises in southern Xinjiang have carried out equipment maintenance, fire protection and safety maintenance and debugging work, which is expected to be completed by the end of August to mid-September. Judging from the investigation in Kashgar, Aksu, Korla and Kuitun, only a few ginning plants have not been successfully subleased or contracted out. It is expected that these companies have less hope of opening scale acquisitions in the new year.Some cotton-related companies believe that at present, large cotton ginners have large inventories and tight capital flows, making it difficult to successfully achieve the "double knot of zero principal and interest" at the end of August. Most of the small ginners have got rid of the predicament they were in in the early stage, and some The cotton ginning factory in Nanjiang had already settled down before the end of May. Judging from the feedback, the number of cotton processing companies opened for purchase in Xinjiang in 2022/23 will not be significantly reduced compared to the previous year. In 2021/22, a total of 970 cotton processing companies in Xinjiang will participate in notarization inspections.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Domestic cotton fundamentals are bearish and cotton supply is sufficient. However, even in the demand-side market, even after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is inverted, demand is still very poor, product inventory is high, and textile mills The start-up rate is low, the impact of Xinjiang cotton issues on demand is apparent, and domestic cotton is weak in the long term. Since the USDA report in August significantly increased the abandonment rate and even lowered the U.S. cotton production significantly than in 2011, U.S. cotton prices have strengthened significantly. However, in fact, the degree of drought in Texas is far less than that in 2011. U.S. cotton After the continuous sharp rise, the bullishness is basically released, and it may face a correction and decline in the later period. The domestic market is weak and US cotton is adjusting, so domestic Zheng cotton is also facing a downward adjustment. Cotton yarn follows the cotton market trend.
2. Arbitrage: internal and external arbitrage, short-term external strength and internal weakness.
3. Options: Consider selling call options at high . (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market ran smoothly and strongly yesterday. The quantity of goods shipped from each production area has gradually increased, but overall the supply is relatively limited. The price of Baisha peanuts has strengthened and the quotation has remained at 5.30-5.50 yuan/jin. The demand side purchases on demand and accepts deviations at high prices. As for Chen peanuts, due to the high price of new peanuts, the cold storage supply situation has improved slightly, with transaction prices remaining at 5.05-5.15 yuan/jin, and some prices are as low as 4.80-4.90 yuan/jin. The arrival volume of oil plants is limited, and the Luhua factory has basically no arrival and is in a state of complete shutdown. The transaction price of some factories is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton; the arrival volume of COFCO imported rice remains stable.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is relatively stable as a whole. It is difficult for oil mills to raise prices, and there is room for profit making in actual shipments. The demand for and during the Mid-Autumn Festival is relatively weak. Customers in the south have basically finished picking up goods, while customers in the north have not yet started to replenish their stocks. The startup rate of domestic peanut oil companies is low, and the overall supply and demand pattern is obvious. In terms of price, the current domestic quoted price for first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton; the market price for small pressed strong-flavor peanut oil varies, with the mainstream quoted price being 18,000 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
Unilateral: The spot price has been strong recently, and the market is expected to be more volatile. The peanuts currently on the market are spring peanuts from Henan, and the reduced production is summer peanuts from Henan, Shandong and other places and spring peanuts from Northeast China. The output is still not quantified, and there is still room for upside in the future. It is recommended to place long 01 orders on dips.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. There are now signs of moving positions to another month, because the price of old peanuts this year is on the high side, but it will not go out of the -800 price difference last year. The current position remains volatile, and we remain on the sidelines for the time being.
period current strategy: The basis difference is around -250, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose a higher point to operate at the right time. Stay on the sidelines for now.
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