Financial News Agency (Shanghai, Editor Xie Sheng) News, the aviation, tourism, and hotel industries, as the industries most severely damaged by the new crown epidemic, seem to have ushered in the dawn of recovery recently.
The "Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day" are approaching, and tourism and aviation are recovering.
html Starting from September 10, Beijing will resume travel agencies and online travel companies to operate inter-provincial group travel and "air tickets + hotel" business in the city. This "pass" can be understood as a major benefit to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day travel market. Previously, the Qunar platform showed that from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. on September 10, the number of air ticket bookings destined for Beijing had doubled from the previous month.Previously, on September 1, Beijing Universal Studios Resort officially launched its trial operation.
Beijing's "unblocking" also marks the official arrival of the peak season for domestic aviation and tourism. Qunar Big Data Research Institute analyzed that the pent-up travel demand since the summer is expected to be released during the National Day. The overall seven-day Golden Week The number of travels is expected to be close to last year's eight-day "Super Golden Week", with more than 600 million people.
According to Fliggy data, in the past week, bookings for air tickets, hotels, tickets, and car rentals during the Mid-Autumn Festival have doubled compared with the previous week. As Beijing Universal Resort will open during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, Fliggy’s air ticket bookings to Beijing have increased by more than 200% in the past week compared to last week.
" Bill Gates " made a heavy move to acquire the Four Seasons Hotel . The capital market is expected to begin to revalue the optional consumer sector.
The capital market's sense of smell is also very sensitive. Zhangjiajie, Changbai Mountain and other tourism service sector targets have been targeted in the past January. The increase was as high as nearly 30%, and related targets such as Beijing First Travel Hotel, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines also performed well. Among them, the recent share price of Juneyao Airlines has even reached a new high since October 2018, which is especially rare when international routes are still frozen.
International capital is also on the list of those who are optimistic about the recovery of the tourism industry. On September 8, Bill Gates' family investment office Waterfall Investment paid nearly 14.3 billion yuan to purchase a 23.75% stake in the Four Seasons Hotel held by Saudi Prince Walid bin Talal. At this point, Waterfall Investment's shares will increase to 71.25%, becoming the absolute controlling shareholder.
Western Securities believes that the last boom cycle for hotels was from the first quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2018. It entered this adjustment cycle from the fourth quarter of 2018. In 2020-2021, the epidemic will intensify and the industry will hit the bottom of and . The downturn on the demand side will force supply. The supply side has been significantly cleared, and the supply and demand structure has accelerated and fully adjusted. The industry may usher in a new boom cycle in the next 2-3 years.
Industrial Securities is particularly optimistic about the recovery trend of the aviation sector. believes that the big cycle of 3-5 years may have arrived .
From the demand side, the attributes of aviation as "high-end optional consumption + wealth effect high elasticity of demand" remain unchanged. With the weakening of the impact of the new crown epidemic, the current demand for domestic routes has basically normalized, and the current domestic passenger flow has It has recovered to more than 70% of 2019, and domestic ticket prices have also rebounded.
From the supply side, as the recovery process of aviation continues to be interrupted by the epidemic, the overall growth rate of airline capacity will decline in the next few years. The scissor gap between supply and demand is about to come, and the next round of aviation boom cycle has sounded the clarion call.
From the perspective of stock price performance, aviation has always shown high cyclical flexibility. The aviation sector's stock price started in 2009 and has increased 10 times in 10 years.
Generally speaking, brokerages are generally optimistic that after the baptism of this round of epidemic, the hotel and aviation industries will see a strong supply-side clearing, and the demand in the post-epidemic era will gradually recover, and the sector may have sustained performance.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-