According to Taiwanese media reports, Taiwan's semiconductor industry ranks among the top in the world. Now, regardless of private investment or policy formulation, most of them focus on the development of the semiconductor industry. In this regard, Taiwanese media person Chen Fengxin said in the online live broadcast program "Wind Direction, Dragon and Phoenix" that this may cause Taiwan to develop " Dutch disease ", which is equivalent to an economic structure in which semiconductors are only strong and other industries are weak. From a global perspective, the United States hopes to occupy Taiwan's advanced manufacturing processes, and mainland China has suddenly emerged in mature manufacturing processes. Facing bilateral pressure, Taiwan's semiconductor industry is bound to reorganize its layout and make progress step by step.
Picture source Taiwan media
Chen Fengxin pointed out that Taiwan’s economic performance in the past period can be attributed to two major reasons, good export performance and large growth in private investment, and the main driving force behind this is semiconductors. At a time when exports in many industries are experiencing setbacks, the semiconductor industry's "those who get semiconductors will conquer the world" trend caused by the global shortage of materials have allowed exports to grow rapidly, but other industries have been relatively squeezed out. In terms of investment, the investment in the wafer industry is also more than 10 billion US dollars.
However, Chen Fengxin said that the dominance of the semiconductor industry may cause "Dutch Disease" to appear in Taiwan. She explained that in the past, the Netherlands became rich overnight due to the discovery of oil in the North Sea, but only benefited energy-related industries. The export competitiveness of other industries shrank because they could not keep up with the rapid strengthening of the currency, resulting in the so-called "Dutch Disease" ". Returning to Taiwan, in addition to semiconductors, the island's service industry, manufacturing, etc. will face more tariff costs when competing with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. Facing the growth and economic contribution of semiconductors, it is "mixed joys and sorrows."
Regarding the recent trends related to Taiwan's semiconductors, Chen Fengxin mentioned the "Chip Four Alliance" (Chip 4), which is oriented to contain mainland China and reduce dependence on Asian chips. ) is beneficial to Japan, because in the semiconductor industry chain with detailed division of labor, Japan's material technology is dominant, upstream supply is their strength, and they do not have to worry about the "manufacturing" market. The United States has a high market share in software automation design. However, advanced designs and IP still need to be manufactured together. The leaders of semiconductor manufacturing are SMIC in mainland China, Samsung in South Korea, and TSMC, UMC, and Power Semiconductor in Taiwan.
Regarding TSMC’s future layout, Chen Fengxin pointed out that TSMC does have the upper hand in the advanced process segment. Compared with South Korea’s Samsung in the manufacturing and yield rate of 3-nanometer chips, it is slightly better. It is affirmative and its market share in the world is as high as 90%. However, most of the semiconductor market still needs 14-nanometer chips, which are mature processes. When everyone can do it, high yield and low cost are the keys to competitiveness. Chen Fengxin said that chips are intermediate raw materials and ultimately need to be made into end products such as 3C and automobiles. The manufacturing and semiconductor markets for these end products are still led by mainland China.
Therefore, for Taiwan and South Korea, which are highly dependent on the mainland for semiconductor exports, if they join Chip 4, in addition to having to cooperate with the United States for mature processes, the export market to China is also limited by the United States, which may create a gap. Chen Fengxin pointed out that this is why Park Jin emphasized to China that joining Chip 4 was a last resort. The Korean media also framed Chip 4 as a technical information exchange platform rather than an industry alliance. What’s more serious is that Korean media believe that Chip 4 may destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
Chen Fengxin mentioned that if we want to "encircle China", South Korea will not cooperate, and Japan itself does not manufacture many chips, and it will not play a role in encircling mainland China and reducing supply and dependence. In the end, the United States can exert pressure. That's Taiwan. After Chip 4 meets in September, it will decide how to position this organization, which will determine the future division of labor among China, Taiwan and South Korea in chip manufacturing.
As for TSMC setting up a factory in Arizona, Chen Fengxin pointed out that there were rumors earlier that American politicians believed that the 5-nanometer plant set up by TSMC was no longer the most advanced technology, and they hoped to allow Taiwan to set up a 2-nanometer plant in the United States, and not It's just 1 seat, it's 6 seats.She said that there have been rumors recently that TSMC plans to build another 3-nanometer factory in Arizona, and concerns about hollowing out Taiwan's advanced manufacturing processes have also begun to arise. At present, Taiwan still retains the advantage of advanced manufacturing processes, but will it be attacked after joining Chip 4? Full of unknowns.
Finally, Chen Fengxin mentioned that recently, both the founder of TSMC, Zhang Zhongmou, and the chairman, Liu Deyin, have been interviewed by the American media, emphasizing that moving the production line to the United States will only increase costs, and that staying in Taiwan is a wise move, but the United States I'm afraid I can't listen. Will setting up a factory in the United States reduce investment in TSMC? Chen Fengxin said frankly that it is difficult to say because TSMC will also reset its plans and think about it from geopolitical and economic aspects. If it builds factories in the United States and costs increase significantly, how will it be restructured. (Editor: Fang Yanyan)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-