The Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out on February 24, and lasted for six months as of August 24. It was originally expected that this conflict would end quickly in the form of a blitzkrieg of against , but to this day, the conflict of is still Before it ended, both Russia and Ukraine were fighting very hard, and they had already shown signs of a protracted war. This war is now showing three major signs: Russia’s attitude is getting tougher, nuclear power plants are being attacked frequently, and Europe is showing signs of fatigue. Taken together, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to get out of control.
Dalia Dukina, the daughter of well-known Russian sociologist Alexander Dukin, died in a car explosion in the early morning of August 21. It is reported that on the night of the incident, after Du Jin and his daughter's speech event, Du Jin was supposed to ride in the explosive vehicle, but Du Jin happened to change a car and followed his daughter's car, and finally witnessed the explosion. According to the investigation, the car had been equipped with an explosive device before the incident, and it was considered a deliberate murder.
Russia claimed that the explosion was a murder planned by Ukrainian agent . Putin spoke highly of Du Jinna and posthumously awarded Du Jinna the Medal of Valor. Putin also made an unusual statement, calling the bombing a cruel and despicable crime.
Putin’s characterization of this matter is very serious. From Putin’s tough statement, we can predict that Russia will never give up and will definitely make a strong counterattack against Ukraine. Russia will definitely escalate the intensity of the existing war. For example, it may launch a more violent attack on Ukraine, or it may respond reciprocally by sending special forces to assassinate senior Ukrainian officials or important think tanks.
Ukraine strongly denies Russia's claims, claiming that Dukin and his daughter are marginal figures and were not targeted by Ukraine, but died in Russia's "internal fighting." However, Ukraine has the ability to launch stronger bombings in Russia or areas actually controlled by Russia, and disdains assassinations. This is a sign that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate further.
At the same time that Dukin's daughter was killed, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant industrial zone was frequently bombarded, and the "nuclear alarm" was sounded, which was the second sign of danger. Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency , said that the situation is extremely serious. The nuclear power plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and the third largest nuclear power plant in the world. It is currently within the area actually controlled by Russia. If a large-scale nuclear leakage occurs, the damage will be equivalent to ten times that of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Ukraine, Belarus , Russia and some other European countries will face a nuclear contamination crisis.
United Nations Secretary-General Guterres once reported that the Ukrainian army shelled the nuclear power plant industrial park. Russia also condemned Ukraine's move as an act of nuclear terrorism. Ukraine claimed that the incident was "self-directed and staged" by Russia. The shelling of the nuclear power plant triggered concerns from all parties and received widespread attention from the international community. The top priority now is to cool down the tense situation and have the International Atomic Energy Agency dispatch experts to verify the situation to ensure that there will be no nuclear leakage. In fact, Ukraine's shelling of nuclear power plants may be a threat to Europe. The frenzied Ukrainian army has become "red-eyed." Now Europe is showing its exhaustion and may no longer be willing to continue to spend real money to support Ukraine's war. This sign indicates that the Ukrainian army without assistance may lose control.
Nowadays, the internal social crisis in European and American Western countries is also very serious. Although they have verbally stated that they will go all out to support Ukraine, actual support is still unable to reverse the situation of the war. Zelensky said he hopes the war will end before Christmas. It may also be that realizes that the support from the United States and Europe cannot continue.
In response to the economic crisis caused by the new crown epidemic, huge amounts of money printing, coupled with the chaos in the international energy and food markets caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and Europe have been experiencing severe inflation this year, which has had a great impact on residents' lives and Industrial production has been severely hit and is now on the verge of recession.
Since the change of Germany last year, the Scholz government has been more aligned with the United States in foreign affairs than the previous government. It has been following the United States in the Ukraine crisis and has also been supporting Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Germany is extremely dependent on Russian natural gas , but now Germany has to follow the United States in imposing sanctions on Russia. Because it cannot purchase energy from Russia, its own energy crisis is getting worse.
German Chancellor Scholz hopes to buy natural gas from Canada or build a new gas pipeline from Spain, but the supply has not been restored in the past two years. In the past decade or so, due to organizations such as the Green Party actively hyping political issues such as environmental protection, most nuclear and coal power plants in Germany have been closed for many years, and it is basically impossible to restart them in the short term to supplement power generation.
At the G7 summit, although all countries expressed their intention to assist Ukraine, European countries did not provide assistance to Ukraine last month. As the winter energy peak approaches, European countries have to make their own plans and no longer have the energy to support Ukraine. According to US media statistics, since the war began, the United States has provided US$10 billion in military support. Domestic social problems in the United States and Europe are serious, and domestic people are no longer willing to use taxpayers' money to aid Ukraine. After experiencing many wars such as Afghanistan and Afghanistan, the American and European people have also realized that the so-called aid to Ukraine may also become an excuse for corruption by some vested interest groups.
At present, the Western media's attention to Ukraine is significantly decreasing, and Western people have lost interest in this matter. CNN stated that Zelensky used Western media to portray himself as a "national hero", but as the conflict turns into a protracted war, Zelensky's positive image will collapse.
At this point in the war, both Russia and Ukraine are fighting very hard. The conflict that was originally expected to end quickly has now become a protracted war. Ukraine has recently been threatening to organize a major counterattack to regain lost territory, but has never taken large-scale actions. In addition to its own incompetence, the significant weakening of support from the United States and Europe is also an important factor. At a critical time when Russia was making tough statements, Ukraine was still frequently shelling nuclear power plants, which shows that the situation may be getting out of control. The international community should cool down the situation, insist on analyzing and judging the situation based on historical merits and rights, and actively create conditions for peace negotiations.
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