[Text/Observer Network Wang Hui, Liu Qian, Zhang Jingjuan Editor/Feng Xue] August 24 is destined to be a special day. Half a year has passed since Russia launched a special military operation on February 24.
Coincidentally, August 24th is also the "Independence Day" of Ukraine .
Many Ukrainian people may not have expected that they would usher in the 31st "Independence Day" amid war. The
war still has no end in sight. The " Washington Post " published a commentary on the 22nd, saying, "In the past six months since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world has stood on a knife's edge." "We still feel that this is just a prologue."
The recent murder of Dukina, the daughter of Russian political scientist and philosopher Dugin, has further intensified the already tense situation between Russia and Ukraine.
An assassination occurred on the outskirts of Moscow. The target was an influential civilian with a clear position. This is the first time since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out.
There is no conclusion yet on who planned this assassination. Russia and Ukraine each have their own opinions. Just like the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, which has been frequently attacked in recent days, the two sides are blaming each other.
The dangerous atmosphere is getting stronger and stronger.
Kiev All public celebrations related to "Independence Day" will be banned from the 22nd to the 25th. Apart from the capital, public gatherings are also restricted in other regions of Ukraine.
On the 23rd local time, the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine issued the latest security alert stating that the possibility of Russia's military attack on Ukraine increased around Ukraine's "Independence Day" and once again urged U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine as much as possible.
Will Russia take action on this day? Will Dukina's death become a new "flash point" in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Next, in addition to the frontal battlefield, will the Russian-Ukrainian agent launch an assassination operation and open up another battlefield?
In addition, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been attacked frequently in recent days. Will Crimea become a new front in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
What impact will the current situation have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the regional and global situation?
In response to the above issues, Observer Network specially invited Professor Li Haidong of the Institute of International Relations of China Foreign Affairs University and military expert Song Zhongping to conduct in-depth interpretations.
Dukina and her father Dukin’s profile picture
An assassination, both sides fell into " Rashomon "
The Russian Federal Security Service said that the assassination was done by the Ukrainian secret service, and even disclosed the identity of the perpetrator. Detailed identity information:
Ukrainian female agent Natalia Vovk, born on July 23, 1979. Assigned by the Ukrainian security service, she entered Russia with her 12-year-old daughter and fled to Estonia after the incident.
Faced with Russia’s accusations, Ukraine denied it three times.
Ukrainian President adviser Podoljak said on the 21st that Ukraine had "nothing to do" with Dukina's death in the explosion. He attributed the incident to an internal power struggle between Russia's "different political factions" and suggested that the incident was "karma" for supporters of the action against Ukraine, including Dukina and her father Dukin.
On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy once again emphasized that Ukraine was not responsible for the death of Dukina.
"The assassination of Du Jinna is a landmark event," Li Haidong said, because she was neither an armed person nor a soldier, just a civilian. In the past, wars between the two sides mainly focused on military towns and military targets. However, as soon as this incident broke out, we can see that the targets of the war are increasingly shifting to civilians.
As a journalist and political activist, Dukina's advocacy of " Great Russianism " can be said to be public. She has bluntly supported the "special military operation" against Ukraine.
Therefore, Li Haidong believes that the murder of Du Jinna was probably driven by extreme anti-Russian political forces and was regarded as a target by the anti-Russian forces and eliminated.
Photos of the suspect who killed Dukina RIA Novosti Video screenshot
"The most likely thing was Ukraine, and there was support from the United States behind it," Song Zhongping said, US State Department Press Secretary Price was asked and his ambiguous statement on whether he knew the mastermind behind the incident; this just shows that the United States may be aware of this matter, and it is even possible that the Ukrainian intelligence agency acted with the tacit approval of the United States.
html On August 22, Price said this when answering the media's question: "What does the United States think about who is behind the scenes?": "Except for the public information that you have heard, I have nothing What can be shared is that Ukraine has denied involvement in the attack.”"Obviously, the United States is siding with Ukraine on this matter." Li Haidong analyzed that it can also be seen that almost all the issues that the United States can use in the Russia-Ukraine war focus on its ruthlessness towards Russia. Exclude.
"Price conveyed such a message as the spokesperson of the US State Department, indicating that the United States still takes a political side in the Russia-Ukraine war involving civilian deaths. This is probably the consistent behavior of the United States."
Who was Dujinna killed? responsibility, the information currently appears to be very mixed.
However, "the final conclusion of this matter requires sufficient evidence. Russia needs to provide sufficient evidence to relevant agencies to prove its accusation that Ukrainian agents murdered Dukina." Song Zhongping added.
"Du Jinna's death has shaken the mountain and shaken the tiger, and also warned Putin "
There are currently different opinions on whether this assassination targeted Du Jin or Du Jinna.
On the night of the incident, Dukin delivered a speech on "Tradition and History" in the Moscow region, and his daughter Dukina attended the event as a guest. Some public opinion said that Dukin initially planned to leave with his daughter, but later decided to take another car alone, while Dukina left in her father's SUV, and then the vehicle exploded.
Dukin has been receiving much attention from Western media, and he has been described as an influential figure in Moscow. In the narratives of many European and American media, although Dukin does not have any position in the Russian government, he is still called the " Kremlin think tank" and "Putin's brain". Some media claim that his "new Eurasianism" has greatly influenced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical thinking.
However, there is a big difference between Russian media and Western media in defining Dukin’s identity.
RT News Network stated that Dukin is largely considered a relatively marginal figure in Russia, and some of his views are considered controversial even in nationalist circles. Although he has served as an adviser to various politicians, he has never been officially recognized by the Kremlin.
In fact, "Dukin's influence in Russia is not as great as the West exaggerates," Li Haidong said. The West has repeatedly emphasized that Dukin is "Putin's brain" in international public opinion and diplomatic occasions. This operation is very strategic. And insidious.
"Dugin's position is very clear, that is, neo-Eurasianism and anti-Westernness. If Dukin's ideas are linked and equal to Putin, it will label Putin as anti-Western and ultra-nationalist on the international stage. . Therefore, in order to achieve the strategic goal of squeezing Russia, the West attacks and slanders Putin personally, and they will equate Russian extremist representatives with Putin," Li Haidong added.
He believes that this approach is very helpful for the United States to mobilize Western allies to jointly boycott or attack Putin, making Western countries think that Russia is dangerous and Putin is dangerous. They need to unite more closely to consolidate the United States' most powerful position in Europe. Important strategic resources - NATO .
Therefore, the West has three core goals in expanding and exaggerating Dukin's influence: first, to weaken Putin's power legitimacy and legitimacy and weaken his power base; second, to strengthen the NATO alliance; third, to create chaos in Russia In the complex power competition, Russia's domestic political forces that the West does not like are squeezed out.Tell them that there is no way out for being anti-Western and anti-American, and they will be the target of fatal attacks.
Song Zhongping believes that if it was Du Jin who was killed this time, the impact would be greater. "But killing Dukin's daughter is a bit of a shock, and even a warning. This is a warning to Putin and his 'political adviser' Dukin not to be so extreme in dealing with the Ukrainian issue."
He believes , similar assassinations may be more and more likely to occur in Russia in the future.
On August 23, 2022 local time, Du Jin (middle) talked with the priest at the final farewell ceremony of his daughter Du Jinna. Source: Visual China
"The agents lurking in Crimea are difficult to deal with."
On the day Dukina was murdered (local time on the 20th), the governor of Sevastopol, Russia, Razvozaev posted a message on the social platform, saying that the people located in the Crimea The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Russia was attacked by drones. This is not the first time that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been attacked. Some analysts believe that the Crimean Peninsula may become a new front in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In this regard, Song Zhongping analyzed that the recent attacks in the Crimea region can be divided into two categories:
The first category is the frequent attacks carried out by the Ukrainian army using drones. The harm caused by these attacks is relatively high. is limited. Although drones are low, slow and small targets that are difficult to intercept, as long as Russia pays enough attention, the probability of intercepting such targets is very high;
Another type that is difficult to deal with is the large number of drones lurking in the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian agents, these Ukrainian agents are even supported by US and NATO latent agents in the Crimean Peninsula, which means that the CIA is also involved. Relatively speaking, these people are difficult to deal with because they have carefully laid out their plans for many years and lurk relatively deep.
"The explosion was caused by insiders, not by external missiles or drones." Song Zhongping believes that these explosions will have a relatively large impact on the situation on the Crimean Peninsula, and may even shake it. Strengthen military morale and shake people's morale.
He analyzed that the reason why Ukraine did this was to create opportunities for the so-called "counterattack".
"Ukraine has always believed that there are two opportunities for its counterattack: the first is that the West increases military assistance so that the Ukrainian army has more tangible weapons and equipment; the second is that it frequently manufactures weapons including Kherson , Internal chaos in Borizhia, the Crimean Peninsula, etc., and bombing attacks can achieve exactly this effect.”
"If the threat posed by Russian military power to Ukraine's counterattack can be reduced, coupled with the increasing military assistance from the United States, Zelensky will think that the time has come for him to counterattack. It can be said that Ukraine is accumulating capital for counterattack ." Song Zhongping added.
Zelensky’s series of operations also prove to the West that he still has the means and capabilities to fight Russia.
"If he does nothing and shows no signs of counterattack, Americans and Europeans will lose interest in Zelensky's military and economic assistance." Song Zhongping said.
On August 16, 2022 local time, a temporary ammunition storage site caught fire and exploded in the Crimean village of Mayskoye, producing a large amount of smoke. More than 3,000 people were forced to evacuate. Picture source: Visual China
The United States continues to "transfuse blood", and European countries lack the stamina
As Ukraine moves the front to Crimea, US military aid also comes one after another, continuing to "transfuse blood."
html On August 19, the United States said it would provide $775 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including ammunition for "Haimas" multiple rocket launchers, 15 "Scan Eagle" drones , and 1,500 "TOW" anti-tank missiles. and 1,000 "Javelin" anti-tank missiles , etc. html On August 24, US President Biden issued a statement on Ukraine's "Independence Day", announcing that the United States would provide weapons and equipment worth approximately US$2.98 billion to Ukraine. This is the largest security assistance provided by the United States to Ukraine to date. .Unlike the United States’ continued military aid, European countries’ aid to Ukraine shows insufficient stamina.
Data released on the 18th by the "Aid to Ukraine Tracking" database of the Kiel Institute of World Economics in Germany shows that from July 2 to August 3, the West promised a total of 1.5 billion euros in financial support to Ukraine, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. Six major European countries, including Russia, have not announced new financial support for Ukraine during this period.
"For the United States, Ukraine cannot lose this war," Li Haidong said. The United States believes that the most important strategic resource in the world is alliances, and the most valuable alliance is NATO. If Ukraine is defeated, it is foreseeable that NATO's position in the European security architecture will be severely weakened, and the ensuing domino effect may make NATO's architecture loose. This is the United States Absolutely unacceptable.
"So, when the United States discovers that Ukraine has no follow-up power in the war, their aid to Ukraine will inevitably flow in, and the scale will become larger and larger."
But for European countries, the situation is quite different. .
Li Haidong analyzed the reasons why European countries have insufficient military aid to Ukraine from two aspects: on the one hand, European countries have not invested as much in the defense field as the United States for a long time; on the other hand, European countries also consider when considering their European security vision. Now comes the question of how to accommodate Russia. For European countries, they hope to restore stable Russia-EU relations, which includes respecting Russia's legitimate interests in Europe and respecting Ukraine's own choices.
"Although a considerable number of political leaders in Europe believe that Russia cannot win in this conflict, they have taken Russia's place into consideration when planning Europe's future security blueprint. However, the United States has absolutely no such considerations, and the United States' policy toward Russia is in A very obvious manifestation of the Russia-Ukraine war is that encouraging Ukraine to defeat Russia is actually a very disastrous goal for European security.”
Du Jinna's death will not be a turning point, and the war still has no end in sight.
"Sun Tzu's Art of War " says that "winners are more valuable than long," which means that the war must be decided quickly, and the war must be delayed for a long time, especially for both sides of the war. It is very disadvantageous to be the one who started the war.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not " blitzkrieg ", but " unrestricted war ". At present, the hope of resolving conflicts through negotiation between the two sides is getting slimmer, and maintaining a confrontation on the battlefield has almost become an inevitable option.
Li Haidong believes that this war will have two evolving trends. One is that the area of the war is getting larger and larger, and the other is that the methods of the war are getting darker and darker. It turns out that the war took place in Ukraine itself, but now it appears sporadically in Crimea. Originally, the war was limited to fighting on the battlefield, but now civilians like Dukina have been assassinated, and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, one of the largest nuclear power plants in Europe, has been repeatedly shelled and other crazy actions.
On August 7, 2022 local time, in the Zaporozhye region of Ukraine, near the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, you can see rocket fragments after shelling. Source: People’s Vision
These evolving trends are deeply disturbing.
Although Dukina's death has attracted widespread attention from the international community in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, Li Haidong pointed out that the overall situation of the war will not change just because a certain person is assassinated.
"The death of Dukina is not a new 'flash point', nor a turning point or a new starting point in this war. She is just an unfortunate victim in this gradually escalating and expanding war."
Zelensky once said on the 20th He issued a speech warning that Russia may step up its offensive around the 24th. As a result, Kyiv canceled its "Independence Day" related celebrations, and tensions were high throughout the country.
In this regard, Song Zhongping said that even if there are rallies, celebrations, parades and other activities held in some places in Ukraine on the 24th, Russia will not take military action against these ordinary people. If it does, it will be a false accusation in the international community.
"But one thing is certain, whether Dukina was killed or the targets in the Crimean Peninsula and Russia were attacked, it was enough for Putin to prepare for revenge. The time for this revenge may not be on the 24th.Even if No. 24 is chosen, it does not necessarily target the Independence Day celebrations. He can completely target other military targets. These military targets include the Ukrainian General Staff, the Ministry of Defense, and even the future presidential palace are within the sequence of being considered for attack, as a warning to Zelensky. ”
Next, will Russian-Ukrainian agents open up an assassination battlefield?
Dukina’s death is easily reminiscent of the Chechen conflict and similar terrorist attacks. Russia could not bear it and finally fought.
At that time, Putin directly said: “It is God’s business to forgive them. Our mission is to send them to see God. If we catch them at the airport, we will shoot them to death. If we catch them in the toilet, we will drown them in the toilet! "
" New York Times " reported on the 17th how a Ukrainian covert operations team placed a bomb under the driver's seat of a man working for Russia, which detonated when the engine was started. Ukrainian guerrillas said that compared with the "targeted individuals" they targeted during the attack "More important is the message each attack sends: You are never safe." "
What does the Ukrainian secret operations team mean by saying this? Next, in addition to the frontal battlefield, will Russian and Ukrainian agents launch assassination operations and open up another battlefield?
Song Zhongping believes that Russia and the United States have already started a hybrid war model, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is only a link in the Russia-U.S. hybrid war, that is, Ukraine is fighting a physical war with Russia as an agent of the United States. This type of hybrid war is still in place. Including public opinion war, currency war , sanctions, etc.
"Assassination operations themselves are also part of hybrid warfare, which can disrupt the people and military morale of the other party, especially breaking through the rear. "
He said: "Assassinations and sabotage mainly target three types of targets: important people in areas controlled by the Russian army need to be killed; important military bases need to be destroyed; and important infrastructure needs to be destroyed. "
"These three things will put constraints and pressure on Russia's military operations in Ukraine. In the future, these three types of actions may appear one after another, which is actually a test of the Russian military's ability to control the controlled areas. "
Song Zhongping said that Russia is now recruiting volunteers in Zaporozhye to try to resolve the huge threat posed by agents or lurkers to Russian-controlled areas, but it is also relatively difficult.
local time July 30, 2022, In Lviv, Ukraine, people participate in shooting training and learn military skills at a shooting range in Lviv . Source: Vision China .
“Because Ukrainians and Russians belong to the same ethnic group, and there are some people who have been lurking in Russian-controlled areas, including Crimea, for a long time, these people are a mixed bag. It is difficult to find these lurkers. These lurkers in Russian-controlled areas are also constantly cultivating new people. These people are distributed in various positions, in various important infrastructures, and even in military bases. "
Once these people are activated and mobilized, it will cause more trouble in the Russian-controlled areas. This is actually a big problem that Russia needs to face.
"The enemy is on the battlefield, so it is relatively easy to deal with. But when dealing with lurkers, the enemy is hiding, which is a test for Putin. "Song Zhongping added.
"But everyone knows that Putin is an agent, so he is relatively good at dealing with these Ukrainian agents, including spy wars and intelligence wars. I believe that Putin will use his own means to solve this problem and minimize the harm caused by these lurkers in Russian-controlled areas. At the same time, he will increase the prevention of various targets in Russian-controlled areas and strengthen his air defense and anti-missile capabilities. deployment to ensure social stability and popular sentiment in the controlled areas, so that Russia can confidently and boldly carry out other military tasks. "
Li Haidong analyzed that the war itself is not only a military contest and a contest of public opinion, but more importantly a psychological contest. Psychological warfare is an aspect that will not be ignored by all parties in any war.
Ukrainian guerrillas said that every attack All will send the signal "you are never safe", which is actually psychological warfare.This sentence reflects the extreme importance of psychological warfare on both sides in this war. If one party is psychologically unbalanced, it actually indicates that internal cohesion is dispersed and internal support is weakened. In other words, when the war reaches a certain level of consumption, this side will not be able to sustain it and will eventually fail.
Li Haidong pointed out: "There are various means of psychological warfare. In addition to planting bombs for targeted clearance, assassinations, etc., we can also expect that a large number of false news will be spread during the war. These false news are also terrorist to some extent. The effect is also to achieve the purpose of unbalancing the other party's psychology."
The long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine has and will continue to have an impact on the regional and global situation.
"This is a structural conflict that can affect the transformation of the international pattern. This is not a technical conflict, not a conflict between one or two countries," Li Haidong said. One of the characteristics of structural conflicts is that neither party will choose Compromise, the outcome of the losing party in the conflict will be extremely tragic.
"Therefore, we have found that the Russia-Ukraine war has become darker and darker in the past six months, becoming more and more escalating, and becoming more and more expanded. Frankly speaking, we feel that it is becoming more and more difficult to predict when this war will end, and this The huge uncertainty brought to the world will have a comprehensive and all-round impact on the global energy pattern, the pattern of globalization, and even the pattern of climate change," Li Haidong added.
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