Intern reporter | Dai Jingjing
Amid concerns about the collapse of global oil demand, international oil prices have plummeted to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As of the early morning closing of August 6, Beijing time, WTI September crude oil futures rose 0.53% to US$89.01/barrel, down 9.74% for the week; Brent October crude oil futures rose 0.85% to US$94.92/barrel. , down 8.7% that week.
Beijing time opened on August 8, and oil prices continued to fall. As of 21:30 on the evening of the 8th, WTI's September crude oil futures price fell 0.85% to US$88.25/barrel; Brent crude oil futures price for October fell 0.46% to US$94.44/barrel. The price of
has dropped by more than 30% from the highest point this year. In March this year, the price of Brent crude oil once exceeded US$139/barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil rose by more than US$130/barrel, setting a new high since 2008.
International oil prices experienced several consecutive days of decline last week.
On August 1, local time, poor July data disclosed by manufacturing industries in various countries triggered market concerns about oil demand. At the close of the day, WTI September crude oil futures fell 4.8%, and Brent October futures fell 3.79%.
The next day, the decline in international oil prices continued to expand.
html On August 3, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a weekly report stating that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased significantly, and gasoline inventories also increased more than expected due to slowing demand. This news caused international oil prices to continue to plummet by nearly 4% that day.On August 4, local time, WTI, the price of September crude oil once fell below US$88/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell below US$93/barrel.
According to Reuters report, Stephen Brennock, an analyst at oil broker PVM, said that last week’s price trend showed that demand concerns caused by the economic recession have overwhelmed supply concerns, and it can even be said that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has The premium space has evaporated.
After consecutive interest rates , the United States achieved negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, and media organizations believed that the economy was heading toward a "technical recession." On August 4, local time, the Bank of England warned that the United Kingdom will also enter recession at the end of 2022.
In addition, the decline in demand for U.S. crude oil and refined oil products reflected in EIA data was an important trigger for the plunge in oil prices last week.
In the week ending July 29, EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.165 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 467,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 204,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.633 million barrels.
However, some Wall Street analysts are questioning the EIA data fraud, believing that the EIA is trying to push down oil prices and increase voter support.
Doug Legatt, energy strategist at Bank of America , wrote that U.S. gasoline demand rebounded to 9.2 million barrels per day in the week ending July 22, the second highest level in 2022. But EIA data showed a sharp decline in gasoline demand in the following week.
global energy strategist Piper Sandler said that there is a lot of room for error in the EIA's statistical methods, and the data it publishes is inaccurate; data from the gasoline price tracking application GasBuddy shows that U.S. gasoline demand is strong, which is consistent with the EIA data. Big gap.
Institutions have different views on the future trend of oil prices, but most institutions are optimistic that it will remain at around US$100 per barrel in the second half of this year.
After a week of oil price collapse, Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for oil prices this year, but is still bullish on oil prices.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs stated in a report on August 7 that Brent crude oil prices have fallen recently due to low liquidity, as well as many concerns such as economic recession, the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States, and the recovery of Russian production.
Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third and fourth quarters of this year from the original US$140 and US$130 per barrel to US$110 and US$125 respectively, but maintained its forecast of US$125 per barrel in 2023.
"Even assuming all these negative factors come into play, the likelihood of higher oil prices remains high, and the market has still posted higher-than-expected deficits in recent months," Goldman Sachs said.
Domestic institution CICC stated in a research report on August 4 that the oil market's supply and demand balance is tight and even a slight shortage has not changed. In the second half of this year, the Brent oil price center will be in the range of 100-110 US dollars per barrel.
A report released on August 3 by Fitch Solutions, a subsidiary of Fitch Group, maintained the Brent crude oil price forecast made in July.
The report said Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $105 per barrel this year, average $100 per barrel in 2023, fall to $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and fall to $85 per barrel in 2026.
Fitch Solutions analysts said that for most of this year, price trends have been determined by supply-side drivers, and as recession risks continue to rise, demand-side concerns are gradually intensifying.
"Given that Fitch's economists forecast relatively strong economic growth in 2022 and 2023, these demand concerns may be overstated." The analyst said that assuming a recession is avoided and demand grows, sustained Tight supply will support oil prices above $100 a barrel.
However, Fitch Solutions also stated that as countries continue to raise interest rates amid high inflation, increasing the risk of a slowdown in financial activities, it is increasingly possible to lower the current oil price forecast.
As a representative of institutions that are bearish on oil prices, Citigroup warned in July that in the event of an economic recession, without the intervention of OPEC and the reduction of short-cycle oil investment, crude oil prices will fall to $65/$ by the end of 2022. barrel, falling to US$45/barrel by the end of 2023.
Citi has not yet updated its oil price forecast for August. The agency predicted in July that the average Brent crude oil prices in the third and fourth quarters of this year would be US$99 and US$85 per barrel respectively, and the average WTI crude oil prices would be US$94 and US$81 per barrel respectively.
html On August 4, Ed Moore, Citi’s global head of commodity research, said in an interview with CNBC that the market no longer expects tight supply in the future, but expects relaxation. As oil supply increases and demand decreases, oil prices are expected to continue to fall.Domestic commodity analysis agency Zhuochuang Information also believes that oil prices may continue to decline.
html On August 4, Zhuochuang Information released a report stating that as international oil prices have risen sharply, funds in the oil futures market continue to withdraw, and capital liquidity is getting lower and lower, unable to support the current high oil prices."Due to the serious mismatch between the amount of funds in the oil futures market and the oil price, the greatest risk of price fluctuations is brewing. At some point, the hands of funds will burst the 'bubble' in the high oil prices. It will last and fall sharply. The market situation will be a high probability event," Zhuo Chuang Information said.
Zhuochuang Information predicts that the average price of WTI crude oil in August will be US$97 per barrel, in September it will be US$92, and in October it will be US$88, still maintaining the gradual downward trend of oil prices in the next three months.
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