Under the strong planning and coordination of the central government, the patriotic camp was divided into left, center and right. All parties temporarily put aside their interests and conflicts and united to support the only candidate Li Jiachao. In the end, Li Jiachao received 1

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liang Weinuo]

html On May 8, the election of the sixth Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region concluded successfully. Under the strong planning and coordination of the central government, the patriotic camp was divided into left, center and right. All parties temporarily put aside their interests and conflicts and united to support the only candidate Li Jiachao. In the end, Li Jiachao received 1,416 votes, with a vote rate of over 99%, and successfully became the sixth Candidates for the next term of Chief Executive are awaiting formal appointment by the State Council.

The election for the sixth term of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has concluded successfully. Li Jiachao won the election. Picture source: Shenzhen Satellite TV

Since there is only one candidate in this election, Li Jiachao, the attention of Hong Kong citizens is not high, but they are generally interested in the new government. They all have a lot of expectations, especially the hope that deep-rooted issues such as land and housing can be solved. In this regard, Li Jiachao proposed many measures in his political platform, and after being elected, he also reiterated that housing issues are his priority.

At the same time, Hong Kong society has gradually returned to stability. In terms of politics, after the formulation and implementation of the National Security Law for the Hong Kong Area and the improvement of the electoral system of the Hong Kong SAR, the anti-China and disruptive forces in Hong Kong have been greatly weakened.

In terms of social economy, the fifth wave of the epidemic has relatively eased, and the number of confirmed cases has dropped from high levels. As the number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong has declined, the government has accelerated the relaxation of social distance measures, shopping malls and streets have resumed pedestrian flow, and merchant business has improved. The public has finally breathed a sigh of relief, and society has gradually returned to normal. Six of the nine community isolation facilities built with central assistance will be suspended within this month and will be put on standby. Mainland medical aid to Hong Kong has also left in batches.

Lee Ka-chiu's election as Chief Executive will undoubtedly have a profound impact on Hong Kong's politics, economy and society. However, this only creates favorable conditions for responding to crises and solving problems. It does not mean that the problems facing Hong Kong will be solved, and Hong Kong will not directly achieve "long-term peace and stability."

In fact, after Li Jiachao took office, in addition to those commonplace and deep-seated problems, he also had to face a series of vexing risks and challenges. It was not necessarily as smooth sailing as people said. It is not an exaggeration to describe Li Jiachao's next five-year term as "complex and changeable". Various crises that threaten Hong Kong's social stability still exist to a certain extent. If the response is inadequate, Li Jiachao's efforts to deal with deep-seated problems are likely to be in vain, just like the "85,000" housing construction plan proposed by Tung Chee-hwa in the face of the financial crisis Same as ever.

Some people believe that the central government’s decision to formulate and implement the National Security Law for the Hong Kong SAR and improve the SAR’s electoral system after the storm over the amendment bill shows that if there is a crisis in the future, the central government will take action to resolve it. The SAR government does not need to worry, as all major issues depend on the central government.

This view is inaccurate and irresponsible. During the two sessions, Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, met with members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Hong Kong and pointed out that the Central Committee will continue to adhere to the special principles and policies of "one country, two systems", "Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong" and a high degree of autonomy. Although the central government exercises comprehensive jurisdiction and assists Hong Kong in handling political crises, this does not mean that central officials will directly govern Hong Kong in the future, nor will they intervene in any matter, but will only "give some guiding opinions." , the main responsibility for governing Hong Kong still falls on the SAR government.

In fact, the real advantage of "one country, two systems" is not that Hong Kong can always get support from the country when it needs it (especially after messing up), as some SAR government officials say, but that it is within one country. , Hong Kong, which implements a different social system from the mainland, can handle the crisis on its own with a high degree of autonomy of the Hong Kong people and achieve long-term prosperity and stability without the need for the central government to clean up the mess and add trouble to the country. Therefore, the next government must proactively prepare for the crisis and cannot wait until the situation gets out of control before seeking help from the central government.

The main risks and challenges that the next government will face

Mao Zedong once said: "Without foresight, there is nothing." Some people may think that the author is unfounded, worrying about nothing, and pouring cold water on the new situation, but the risks and challenges that Hong Kong will face next are It’s not the author’s imagination. Some are traceable “ gray rhino ”, and of course some are unpredictable “ black swan ”.To prevent crises, the next government must pay enough attention to risk challenges and do a good job in prevention. Even if it cannot prevent the crisis from happening, it can try to minimize the impact of the crisis and avoid causing social instability or even turmoil.

1. The new crown epidemic

The first major challenge Li Jiachao faced after taking office was the new crown epidemic. If the epidemic cannot be controlled well, all visions will be out of the question.

The current number of daily confirmed cases in Hong Kong has dropped from a high of tens of thousands to hovering around two or three hundred. However, the number is not accurate because most citizens will not take the initiative to get tested, and even if they are infected through rapid testing, they may not be reported. . However, since many citizens have been infected and recovered earlier and have developed antibodies, there have indeed been fewer new infections recently than at the peak, so the current number of confirmed cases probably reflects the overall downward trend.

The problem is that even if 200 or 300 cases is an accurate number, it is certainly low compared to over 10,000 cases per day. However, compared with the highest number of daily confirmed cases in Hong Kong in the first four waves, it is two or three times higher, which means that there are still a large number of confirmed cases in the community. There are still widespread community transmissions, and it is far from being cleared. Naturally, it does not meet the mainland's "clearing" standards. "Customs clearance" may be far away.

Some local medical experts pointed out that Hong Kong's daily confirmed numbers will remain rampant and remain in three digits for a period of time. Even if they gradually drop to more than a hundred or dozens of cases in the future, "zero infection" will not be achieved. Judging from foreign experience, although the number of confirmed cases will decline after passing the peak, it will not disappear. It will only linger at a low level until a new wave of epidemic occurs. In fact, based on the mainland's experience in fighting the epidemic over the past two years, there is no other way to achieve "clearance" than to carry out large-scale and rapid "testing, isolation and treatment" work.

In fact, the Li Jiachao government's "clearance" work is very urgent. With the relaxation of social distance measures, infection clusters have successively broken out in restaurants, such as a hot pot restaurant in Yuen Long, a restaurant in Sheung Wan, a private dining restaurant in Kwun Tong, and infection clusters have also emerged in billiard rooms. The amount of sewage viruses in the Kennedy Town area is more than 100 to 1,000 times higher than the recent average. The Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong even issued a rare warning, calling on teachers and students to avoid eating in the area. It can be seen that there is still a lot of virus transmission in the community.

The private kitchen restaurant involved was closed. Image source: Hong Kong media

Director of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Center for Health Protection, Zhang Zhujun, said that there are at least hundreds of transmission chains in the community. Experts also found that the real-time reproduction rate of the virus has exceeded the value 1, which means one person can infect more than one person.

Assistant Professor Kwok Kin-an of the School of Public Health and Primary Care of the Chinese University of Hong Kong predicts that the number of confirmed cases may rise to four digits in the next one to two weeks, and warns that before winter, the level of immunity from the third dose of the public will decline, or new variants of the virus may emerge. By then, Hong Kong may experience a sixth wave of the epidemic.

Coupled with the recent relaxation of foreign entry restrictions into Hong Kong, imported cases are increasing, and the sixth wave of the epidemic is likely to occur faster. If it cannot be "cleared" in the short term, Hong Kong is likely to face "one wave after another" of the epidemic. There is no hope of returning to normal "customs clearance" with the mainland, and it will be difficult to "integrate into the overall development of the country". More difficult.

The current global epidemic is still ongoing, and there are no specific drugs or vaccines with higher defense capabilities. Moreover, there are fundamental differences between the policies of the mainland and other countries. It can be expected that during Li Jiachao's next five-year term, unless the above conditions change significantly , Hong Kong will continue to face the risks and challenges of the epidemic. As a bridge between China and the West, Hong Kong's normal exchanges with the mainland and overseas involve the fundamental lifeline of Hong Kong. How to handle the two well will be a major challenge for the Li Jiachu government.

2. Local public sentiment

After the central government enacted and implemented the National Security Law for the Hong Kong Area and improved the electoral system of the Hong Kong SAR, society has generally returned to stability, and the turmoil of more than two years ago has disappeared.

However, the basic public sentiment in Hong Kong has not changed, negative sentiments are still widespread in society, and social divisions are still quite severe.Friends around me who sympathize with the "black violence" have not changed their political stance after the implementation of the "Hong Kong National Security Law". They just dare to get angry and speak out because of the strong deterrent power of the "Hong Kong National Security Law", but they dare not There were public actions, and no one dared to stand up and incite them to carry out large-scale anti-government actions.

However, various "soft confrontation" methods are very common, especially during the fight against the epidemic. For example, some people are inciting citizens online not to participate in universal testing, claiming that the purpose of testing is to send Hong Kong people’s genes to the mainland. Others are inciting citizens not to get vaccinated, claiming that vaccines are a tool for the government to track and monitor citizens. The government launched the mobile app "Safe Travel" to allow citizens to record their whereabouts. Many citizens refused to use it on the grounds of "infringement of personal privacy" and even made fake "Safe Travel" apps to hide the truth.

In addition, Li Jiachao's candidacy for the Chief Executive also attracted attacks from opposition forces. For example, someone set up a page on Facebook called "Pay attention to Li Jiachao's Chinese level every day" to correct and rate the posts and speeches on his campaign page. , criticizing Li Jiachao's poor Chinese proficiency, thus derogating his ability. It can be seen that the opposition forces are already exploring methods that are not illegal and can damage the government's prestige. Although these "soft confrontations" are not violent and are not necessarily illegal, they have caused considerable impact and damage.

At the same time, local militant groups have not disappeared and are still operating underground. As the author was writing this article, the police announced the successful dismantling of a local radical organization. The people involved posted more than 2,000 messages in the communication platform group, including hateful government and anti-social remarks, and discussions about planning violent actions, including stabbing police officers to death and epidemic prevention. personnel, etc., even researching how to make bombs. During the operation, the police seized 2 homemade crossbows, 15 arrows, 2 imitation firearms, 1 dagger, a small amount of marijuana and essential oil suspected to contain marijuana.

Disintegrate radical organizations, picture source: Wenhui.com

History has taught us that widespread dissatisfaction in society is always a hidden danger, like a powder keg. With the cooperation of external forces and local radical organizations, a slight mistake can lead to It cannot be ignored to cause a social and political crisis or even lead to the outbreak of large-scale unrest.

3. Changes in the international and geopolitical situation

It is an established fact that the "honeymoon period" of Sino-US relations has ended. US Secretary of State Blinken was originally scheduled to deliver a speech on Thursday (May 5) US time to elaborate on the US government's strategy towards China, but it was postponed due to the diagnosis of the new coronavirus. According to foreign media reports, the content of the speech will confirm that the biggest geopolitical opponent in the eyes of the United States is China, not Russia.

More than a month ago, the U.S. Senate voted 68 in favor and 28 against to pass the "U.S. Competition Act" revised by the Senate to deepen strategic competition with China and put pressure on China in many fields. It proposed many Hong Kong-related amendments.

The U.S. Competition Act proposes to support anti-government media in Hong Kong and recommends authorizing the Secretary of State to lead the establishment of a working group to formulate a plan to enhance the flexibility and use of the Internet in Hong Kong. The amendments to the U.S. Competition Act also mentioned the need to guard against mainland China using Hong Kong to circumvent U.S. laws, and recommended that multiple federal departments evaluate the situation in which mainland China uses Hong Kong to circumvent increased tariffs or sanctions imposed by the United States.

It can be seen from this that the United States will continue to use Hong Kong to attack China. Although Hong Kong has established and improved a legal system and enforcement mechanism to safeguard national security, which prevents the United States from being as unscrupulous as before, it still does not prevent the United States from playing the "Hong Kong card". Hong Kong will not be able to It can avoid continuing to become a source of friction in the struggle between China and the United States.

In addition to Hong Kong, the U.S. Competition Act also proposes various amendments to Taiwan, including proposing to strengthen the U.S.-Taiwan partnership and recognizing Taiwan as an important part of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.

Once there is a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, many unexpected things will happen. As a neighboring region, Hong Kong will naturally not be immune. As early as 1999, Liu Taiying, chairman of the Kuomintang Investment Management Committee, threatened that Taiwan would launch missiles against Hong Kong once the mainland authorities conducted missile drills against Taiwan.In 2007, Taiwan's military secretly test-fired a self-developed "Hsiung Feng II E" cruise missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers, enough to cover Hong Kong. Of course, national defense affairs fall under the jurisdiction of the central government, and the mainland's missile defense system has already covered Hong Kong. If there is an incoming missile, it will be intercepted immediately. However, the impact of military operations on Hong Kong society, especially the psychological panic of the people, cannot be ignored.

What’s more serious is that once a military conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the United States is likely to impose comprehensive sanctions on China. According to foreign reports, officials from the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance had earlier held an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss whether the United States and other Western countries would impose sanctions on China similar to those imposed on Russia in the event of a regional military conflict or crisis. By then, Hong Kong will naturally become the target of US sanctions.

For Hong Kong people, US sanctions are no longer unfamiliar. The current sanctions imposed by the United States on Hong Kong mainly involve individuals. After the implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, many SAR government officials have been sanctioned by the United States. Earlier, because Li Jiachao was on the U.S. sanctions list, YouTube, owned by Google, closed his campaign channel. Facebook also stated that it would ban any services involving payment functions.

However, after Russia launched special military operations against Ukraine , Western countries imposed large-scale sanctions on Russia, proposing sanctions in many fields such as finance, economy, trade, and diplomacy, involving individuals, companies, and countries. In comparison, the current US sanctions against Hong Kong are just childish.

If there is a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, to what extent will the United States impose sanctions on China and Hong Kong? Will it be like Russia, facing the freezing and confiscation of personal and corporate assets, being expelled from the SWIFT ( Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications ) system, and even being banned from exchanging euros and US dollars?

Of course, it seems that financial sanctions have not been able to defeat even Russia. China's economic strength is much stronger than Russia's and is more difficult to shake. Hong Kong will definitely get help from the mainland. However, after all, Hong Kong is an international financial center and an export-oriented economy. Those sanctions are still likely to have serious consequences in the short term. If the original dissatisfaction in society and overseas incitement are superimposed, more chaos will form. .

It can be expected that during Li Jiachao's five-year term, he will continue to face threats caused by the deterioration of the international and Taiwan Strait situations, especially the 2024 US election and Taiwan's regional elections, Trump will make a comeback and the Democratic Progressive Party will continue to be in power. The chances are getting higher and higher, and no one can imagine to what extent the situation will deteriorate by then.

4. Financial crisis

In addition, the risk of a global financial crisis is increasing day by day. At the end of last year, Musk, the world's top rich man, threatened that the economic crisis "may come in the spring or summer of 2022, but no later than 2023." Although Musk did not explain why he made this judgment, based on the development of the current situation, Musk's judgment is not unreasonable.

The United States is experiencing the highest inflation in 40 years. According to the April inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 11, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 8.3% year-on-year, close to the highest inflation level in 40 years. Higher than the 2% average target set by Fed .

In order to reduce inflation, the United States will inevitably have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting decided to raise interest rates by half a percent, the largest single rate increase since 2000. It also announced that it would begin shrinking its balance sheet on June 1, officially starting the interest rate hike cycle. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that if the economy performs as expected, interest rates will be raised by half a percentage point at each meeting in June and July.

Although raising interest rates can relatively ease domestic inflation in the United States, it will have serious side effects. The most obvious is that funds originally invested in other countries will flow back to the United States, causing the foreign debt of countries with high foreign debt to increase and the currencies of emerging market economies to face depreciation pressure. This in turn triggers debt crises and economic recession in these countries, and is likely to trigger regional and even global economic and financial crises.

From the early 1980s to the present, many of the economic and financial crises that have occurred in the world are closely related to the interest rate hikes in the United States.It can be expected that as the United States begins to raise interest rates, the global financial market will enter a long period of shock. Coupled with the impact of uncertain factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the outbreak of the global financial crisis is not unforeseen.

Of course, the above risk challenges are all "grey rhinos" that can be roughly predicted, but the next government will definitely have to face other unpredictable "black swans", just like the "seventeen difficulties" proposed by Mao Zedong, the last one is " Other unexpected things”.

Countermeasures and Suggestions

Regarding the epidemic, Hong Kong is not destined to be "cleared" as some pessimists say. In fact, Hong Kong is not without conditions to be “cleared”. The question is whether the leaders believe it can be “cleared”.

Currently, many experts in Hong Kong’s medical field support coexistence, and some of the proposed candidates for Secretary of the Medical and Health Bureau also support coexistence. Therefore, when Li Jiachao forms a team, he must select some people who are familiar with the country's " dynamic clearing of " approach, believe that this approach is feasible, and have the determination to implement it as the main officials responsible for fighting the epidemic, including but not limited to medical staff Directors of the Health Bureau, Civil Affairs and Youth Affairs Bureau, etc., to coordinate and implement the anti-epidemic work.

In particular, we should determine whether and when it is necessary to implement nationwide or large-scale inspections, and formulate a specific implementation plan for this purpose. Taking into account the actual situation in Hong Kong, it is likely that more than one round of compulsory inspections will be conducted, but multiple rounds, in order to identify the vast majority of infected people, and a large number of isolation facilities will be needed to isolate confirmed cases and close contacts.

In short, we still strive to control the epidemic as soon as possible, achieve "clearance", resume normal "customs clearance" with the mainland, and then gradually resume normal exchanges with overseas under the "foreign prevention of imports and domestic prevention of rebound", and prepare for future epidemics. Be prepared for waves six, seven and eight. Only in this way can we quickly and accurately cut off the chain of transmission when the epidemic begins in the future, and prevent the virus from causing sustained community transmission and large-scale epidemic rebound.

As for public sentiment, under the deterrent effect of the National Security Law, I believe there is little chance of further unrest in Hong Kong in the short term. However, it is unrealistic to expect that public sentiment will change significantly in the short term. The countermeasures to deal with Hong Kong's public sentiment are similar in principle to the Chinese Communist Party's general strategy in the anti-Japanese national united front, which is to "develop progressive forces, win over middle forces, and isolate die-hard forces."

For those stubborn radicals, it is extremely difficult to expect them to change their stance in the short term. The only way is to use legal and executive power to control and isolate them. Although the central government has enacted the National Security Law for the Hong Kong Area, the SAR government's "constitutional responsibility" to legislate for Article 23 of the Basic Law still exists.

What's more, the "National Security Law for the Hong Kong Area" does not cover all areas related to national security, which means that the next government will not only have to legislate Article 23 of the "Basic Law" immediately, but also need to amend or supplement it as the situation changes in the future to safeguard national security. In terms of laws and mechanisms, especially in terms of information circulation, radicals can still publish inciting messages through the "Liandeng Forum" and Telegram. This is a loophole that the Li Jiachao government must face up to.

In 2018, the Russian government ordered a blockade of Telegram, but it ultimately failed and the ban was lifted two years later. From this point of view, it is definitely not easy to control these online platforms.

In July 2021, Li Jiachao, then Chief Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong, said in an interview that he was preparing to legislate Article 23 of the Basic Law. Image source: Phoenix TV video screenshot

For ordinary Hong Kong citizens, many of them may be more or less dissatisfied with the SAR government. They also lack favorable impressions of the mainland government due to historical factors and propaganda from Western and local opposition forces. However, according to loose patriot standards It seems that they are all patriots, and such a large number of Hong Kong citizens cannot be classified as non-patriots and treated as enemies.

Therefore, the next government must actively win the support of Hong Kong citizens, especially in response to deep-seated problems, win over people's hearts and minds with actual performance, channelize citizens' dissatisfaction, and manage social conflicts well. As Lee Kuan Yew said: "To improve your political awareness, no amount of political education, discussion and incitement will be as effective as if you have these vital interests."The policy research group that will be reorganized in the future should also actively play the role of public opinion monitoring, understand changes in public sentiment, and avoid intensifying conflicts.

At the same time, the next government should actively develop progressive forces, focus on ideological fields such as education and media, and cultivate It is necessary to create new patriotic forces, and actively cultivate patriots to become capable governance talents, strengthen patriotic forces, and improve the overall public sentiment in the long run.

Regarding the international political and economic situation, Hong Kong is in a relatively passive situation. After all, in the future, Western countries will impose sanctions on Hong Kong. The extent of the sanctions will not be in our hands but in the hands of Western countries, especially the United States. Are you determined to fully confront China?

If Western countries impose comprehensive sanctions on China and drop a "financial nuclear bomb", it will have a profound impact on Hong Kong's economy and finance. Integration will inevitably be a catastrophic blow, but it is unrealistic to think that the SAR government can only wait and see, or to conclude that Western countries will act softly for the sake of their own interests in China. What's more, even if the United States does not. Taking the initiative, the global economic and financial crisis, which is increasingly likely to occur, will also hit Hong Kong hard.

In order to minimize the damage, the next government must "be proactive." "Establish our policy based on the worst possibility" (Mao Zedong's words), make preparations in advance and formulate different response plans. Earlier reports stated that the Monetary Authority faced different scenarios, such as being expelled from the SWIFT system, assets After being frozen, we have developed different contingency plans and have been in close communication with the People's Bank of China. This is a good thing, but it may not be enough. l3

In addition to making contingency plans, is there anything that Hong Kong can do proactively to reduce the impact? The author is not an expert in finance. Adjust the linked exchange rate , participate in China's CIPS settlement system, and actively develop Blockchain technology, expanding the scale and proportion of the RMB offshore market, etc., deserve the attention and consideration of the authorities. In addition, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government currently has an "emergency response system" and has specific emergency response systems for different incidents. The contingency plan is under the responsibility of the Security Bureau and mainly targets incidents that seriously affect people's lives, such as natural disasters . In 2018, six disciplinary forces formed the "Inter-departmental Anti-Terrorism Task Force". However, the crises that Hong Kong will face next involve different fields, especially finance, and the current disaster relief and anti-terrorism mechanisms are not enough to deal with them. .

Therefore, the next government can refer to the central government’s “State Council International Financial Crisis Response Team” and set up a team responsible for coordinating and coordinating the response to the financial crisis. The "Financial Crisis Response Team", headed by the Financial Secretary, makes unified high-level arrangements for responding to the financial crisis and sanctions, coordinates the actions of Hong Kong's regulatory agencies, important financial institutions such as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and relevant government departments, and sets up A working group dedicated to connecting with mainland financial regulatory authorities to strengthen cooperation and communication, and maintain close liaison with overseas regulatory authorities and financial institutions to prepare for financial crises and sanctions.

Conclusion

This year marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland. It is also the year when Hong Kong officially enters the "50 years of unchanged" period. The next five years will be "a critical period for Hong Kong to move from chaos to governance to governance and prosperity." . Under the "great changes unseen in a century", Hong Kong serves as a bridge between China and the West. With the changes in the international and geopolitical situation, coupled with the inherent local problems, it can be expected that the next five years in Hong Kong may still be full of thorns and obstacles. Avoid facing numerous risks and challenges. Whether Li Jiachao's government can lead Hong Kong to cope with the crisis and get out of the predicament is the real test of "Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong". They "have a heavy burden on their shoulders and a great responsibility!" (Deng Xiaoping's words).

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