Hong Kong China Review News published an editorial written by commentator Lin Shuling, saying that in the Kaohsiung mayoral by-election held on August 15, the Chinese Kuomintang was already guaranteed to lose. The plagiarism incident of candidate Li Meizhen's master's thesis did not affect the victory or defeat, but the KMT's. Overall image and look and feel. Judging from the current situation, the Kuomintang in Hou Youyi's era is coming soon. Who Hou Youyi, who is classified as the "Taiwan faction", will join forces with in the future is full of imagination.
The outcome of the Kaohsiung mayoral by-election has been decided, but it is not simple. Chen Qimai is far ahead and wants to increase the number of votes. The DPP also wants to win the third victory following the January "general election" and the Kaohsiung mayor's recall case in June, and once again defeat the faltering KMT. The most powerful thing about the Green Army is that they obviously have both blue and green papers, so the Green camp is fine, but the and blue camp were beaten all over their heads by a series of explosions. The case of Li Meizhen started, and other Kuomintang Kaohsiung City Councilors were also exposed later, and the long-standing abuses in Kaohsiung's political arena were exposed. The outside world can see that the DPP is making advance plans for the 2022 local "nine-in-one" elections. Not only will the Blue Army lose the mayor of Kaohsiung, but the majority party in the Kaohsiung City Council seems to be unable to hold on.
The Kuomintang was seriously injured in the Li Meizhen case this time. Li was caught plagiarizing his entire master's thesis. He admitted his mistake and announced that he would give up his degree. However, his master's degree is still printed in the election bulletin. Sun Yat-sen University The investigation is still ongoing and the case has not been closed. , this does not rule out that it is the DPP’s method of raising traps to kill people. The Kuomintang claimed that Li had apologized and called on everyone to give young people a chance and ignore the crisis and the hidden strategies of the Green Camp. When the investigation results came out on the eve of the voting day, they were inconsistent with the academic qualifications printed in the election bulletin. Then they continued to beat Li Meizhen. The injuries to me and the Kuomintang may be even more serious than they are now.
The Li Meizhen incident is a big test for KMT Chairman Jiang Qichen’s crisis management. He obviously failed. He knew he would not win the election. He could have been more open-minded and bold in terms of nomination and election strategy, but he failed to see it. Last Saturday, Li set up his campaign headquarters, Jiang Qichen, and dragged a bunch of "blue committee members" to the platform. When Li Meizhen talked about the copywriting, Jiang stood aside with a pale face, and you could see his pain. The only thing Jiang Qichen can breathe a sigh of relief is that Zhu Lilun has also gone to the platform. Jiang and Zhu are tied together, supporting Li Meizhen and becoming a sympathizer of the Kuomintang; the Green Army also did not let go of Han Guoyu who was recovering from his injuries. In next year's Kuomintang chairman election, if any one of Zhu Lilun, Jiang Qichen, and Han Kuo-yu is elected, it may not make much difference in rescuing the Kuomintang's downturn.
It is not ruled out that the new KMT chairman will be elected in May 2021. It will be in jeopardy after the local "nine-in-one" elections are completed in 2022. Because the KMT elected so well in 2018, it is not easy to retain the 15 county mayors. If too many chairs are lost, it will be difficult. It cannot be saved, just like Wu Dunyi resigned from office due to defeat in the "general election" in 2020.
It can be seen that the United States has regarded Hou Youyi as the future partner of the Kuomintang, and the DPP also believes that Hou is the future successor. Hou Youyi has been keeping a distance from the Kuomintang since he was elected mayor. There was a change a while ago. He originally promised to support Li Meizhen, but then backed down after the paper plagiarism case broke out, which shows Hou's caution. Hou's strategy is unprecedented in the Kuomintang. Although he holds a party membership, he goes his own way and is a lone bird. He considers that the Kuomintang Central Committee cannot help anyway. He has to rely on himself to fight the election. Blue voters will still support him and follow him. It is no good if the Kuomintang sticks too tightly to the Kuomintang. Hou is confident in taking this line.
Hou Youyi will basically have no problem being re-elected as mayor of New Taipei in 2022. If the Kuomintang loses the "nine-in-one" election in 2022 and the chairman has to resign, it is an observation point to see whether Hou will be chosen as the chairman; but the possibility is very low. If Hou wants to fight for a "big position" in the future, it will be a burden to carry the Kuomintang, especially the Kuomintang, which is still consolidating and has not yet settled down. If Hou wants to choose 2024, he will be caught and beaten by the green camp like Han Guoyu. The possibility is not high. If he wants to move to the next level, he needs long-term management. Because the timeline is very long, Hou has plenty of time to develop his line. He will gradually become a faction of the Kuomintang. If the Kuomintang never improves, Hou Youyi will become more prominent.
Hou Youyi's cross-strait line is simply the "Taiwan faction". He never responds to issues related to the "1992 Consensus" and is harder than Jiang Qichen and Zhu Lilun, let alone the "1992 Consensus faction" and "exchange faction" within the Kuomintang. . After the Taipei-Shanghai City Forum video conference concluded successfully a few days ago, a reporter asked him whether New Taipei City would also hold a twin-city forum with cities in mainland China. Hou responded flatly, "Currently, New Taipei City has not yet planned to promote economic and commercial development with cities in mainland China." Activities." It is reported in Taipei's political circles that some "independence faction" leaders also admire Hou Youyi. The United States' bet on Hou Youyi in the Kuomintang has a lot to do with his cross-strait line, and it considers him a partner for future cooperation. Hou's chances of becoming the chairman of the KMT in the short term are slim, but his line will affect the KMT's cross-Strait line and the selection of the party chairman, causing the KMT's cross-Strait discourse to continue to be divided and entangled.
Recently, many people have paid attention to the possibility of cooperation between Hou Youyi and Taiwan People's Party Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe. Due to the decline in the power of the People's Party, even the party members meeting scheduled for August 2 in Taoyuan may not be able to gather the number of people. , and if there is a crisis to destroy the party, the possibility of Hou Ke's cooperation is extremely low, and Hou's goal should not stop there. Given the variability of cross-strait relations amid the front-line confrontation between the United States and China, Hou Youyi's "Taiwan faction" route now lays out various possibilities for alliances in the future, especially from the perspective of the United States betting on him. In short, Hou Youyi’s future cannot be ignored.
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