After experiencing the continuous decline in the Asian and European markets yesterday, the international gold price temporarily slowed down its decline. Today, the overall price showed a volatile upward trend, but the increase was still very limited. But the domestic gold price is still at 388, which I don't understand very much. Even because of the exchange rate , according to normal unit conversion, the domestic gold price should not still stay at 388. This is what I don't understand.
But let’s get back to the topic, today is Tuesday, this week’s key events and data will stay on Friday, including the PCE price index annual rate inflation data and the arrival of the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Based on the current information conveyed by the market, I still see gold prices going out of a long-term downward trend.
Today we saw that and , the world's largest ETF gold holdings, have reduced their holdings again, which means that the sudden and unexpected increase in holdings last week is not continuous, and the overall trend is still downward. In addition, the data shows signs of inflation peaking, and international oil prices did not continue to stay at US$120/barrel from July to August. Therefore, the corresponding cost of people's production activities will be reduced.
Therefore, when inflation serves as the main support for the rising momentum of gold prices, as long as inflation declines, gold will also be sold off. Today we also saw a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has exceeded 3%. It fully shows that the current Federal Reserve has begun to increase and increase the scale of reducing its balance sheet. Gradually achieve the debt reduction target of US$95 billion. This is a long-term monetary policy that is negative for gold. Judging from the facts, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, May, June, and July of this year by 25, 50, 75, and 75 respectively.
Judging from the results, the nominal interest rate in the United States has increased to the range of 2.25%-2.5%, which is a normal neutral bias. However, we have not seen any remarks from the Federal Reserve giving up on raising interest rates. Instead, we have seen increasingly hawkish speeches. This shows that U.S. inflation is showing signs of peaking in the short term, but it is still at a high level.
naturally corresponds to the Federal Reserve leading a new round of interest rate hikes by global central banks, taking back the water that was released in large quantities due to the epidemic. When we know that this pace is unstoppable, then under the general trend, the price of gold will fall. Correspondingly, as the nominal interest rate of the US dollar rises, more funds will be attracted into the US dollar market, and the US dollar index will rise, thus suppress the decline in gold prices.
The U.S. dollar index hit the previous high of 109 today. Although there is certain pressure, after continuing to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on the basis of the June interest rate hike, I judge that the U.S. dollar index will be pushed to 110 or even higher prices. In the long term, it is also a negative expectation for gold.
Today’s gold technical analysis:
Looking at gold today, after the market experienced yesterday’s accelerated decline, the K line has broken through the lower track of the Bollinger Band. This is a clear signal that the unilateral decline of has continued. Although we have seen The RSi indicator has seriously reached the oversold zone, but the trend reversal still needs time and a stronger shock bottoming signal to complete.
So since the market has not given an upward signal, the technical aspect is still based on the moving average system floating profit and adding positions. Today’s push is 1745 suppression. The suppression price belongs to the suppression of the 50% retracement position of Fibonacci . The second is the suppression of the long-term moving average near 1750. Continuing to watch the price of gold fall, I personally still can't turn around and be bullish on gold, even if the price of gold is not falling for unknown reasons in China.
In view of the clear signals given by the international economic environment and technical aspects to increase positions and bearish positions, I will continue to firmly watch the price of gold fall. For risk control reasons, I have moved all the high-price short stop losses of last week's gold layout to the 1755 position. Avoid extreme events that could lead to significant profit taking. (Although the current profits are very good, I still want to make greater profits under the premise that the risks are controllable.) Investment is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.
As a trader, I have been in the market for five years. The above content represents my humble opinion and is not a basis for investors' operations. If you agree with my point of view analysis. Welcome to follow, like and forward. If you don't agree with my views, you are welcome to give me advice and corrections. Personal creation, it is not easy to do. It is not allowed to be reproduced or moved without permission. Thank you for understanding
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