This article is authorized by the author himself. "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively original and published on the Toutiao platform. It is reprinted from the public account "Mingren Mingcha". There are many exciting contents, welcome to pay attention. Whether Pelosi will visit Taiw

Category：hotcomm

2024-11-17

[Editor's note] This article is authorized by the author himself. "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively published on the Toutiao platform. It is reproduced from the public account "Mingren Mingcha". There are many exciting contents, welcome to pay attention.

Whether Pelosi will visit Taiwan again has become the most concerning thing in the world these days.

China News Service reported on July 30 that this weekend, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi led an official congressional delegation to visit Asia. Many foreign media disclosed the relevant itinerary. According to foreign media reports, the first stop of Pelosi's visit is Japan, the United States' Asian ally. She may also visit South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, and stay for a period of time at the headquarters of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. Pelosi still has not made it clear whether she will continue to visit Taiwan.

To analyze whether Pelosi will visit Taiwan and whether she dares to visit Taiwan, we cannot rely on blind guessing, but must establish an analysis framework.

1. Let’s first look at the general background of this incident:

1. China has clearly drawn the line. Achieving reunification is China's core interest. The Taiwan issue has always been the most sensitive and important political issue between China and the United States. Adhering to the "One China" policy is the basis for the stability of Sino-US relations. If the foundation is not strong, the ground will shake. If the United States crosses the red line drawn by China on the Taiwan issue, Sino-US relations will undergo fundamental changes. This time, China has drawn a red line for the United States regarding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan means crossing the line. Crossing the line means that all possibilities, including war, will occur, and early recovery operations will be an option.

2. The power of China and the United States is undergoing rapid and drastic changes. The overall strength of the United States is declining, China's strength is rising rapidly, and the gap in strength between the two is rapidly narrowing. This is an indisputable fact. Although the United States still has an advantage in overall strength, that is on a global scale. Around the Taiwan Strait and even within the first island chain organized by the United States, the advantages of China and the United States have been reversed. Solving the problem of reunification is no longer a question of whether it can be solved for China, but a question of how to choose the right time to achieve lower costs and lower costs.

3. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused the United States to lose sight of one thing. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not conducive to the United States and the West. This makes the United States dare not provoke another war in East Asia and the West Pacific, because that means that the United States will have to face two fronts of war from two major military powers at the same time. Historically, There are few precedents of winning a war on two fronts, and the United States currently does not have the strength to win two wars at the same time (the enhancement of the military power of other friends of the United States has limited effect). Although the United States focuses its global power layout on China's periphery, this does not mean that the United States dares to launch a new large-scale or medium-scale war against China before dragging down Russia through the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Because this will make the United States focus on one thing and lose the other. Whether it loses Eastern Europe or East Asia, it is an unbearable failure for the United States to maintain world hegemony, and it may trigger a domino effect of the collapse of the U.S.-led world order.

4. There is not much credit left in the United States and it is becoming increasingly unpopular. Not only China and Russia, more and more countries are now taking the initiative to de-dollarize, targeting the core interests of the United States. The United States' control over the Middle East has also declined significantly. Iran is more determined to cooperate with China and Russia. Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Middle East have also begun to be half-hearted about the United States. BRIC countries, Central Asian countries, Middle Eastern countries, Latin American countries, African countries, and Southeast Asian countries are increasingly unwilling to listen to the call of the United States. The United States and the entire American-Western bloc are becoming increasingly isolated in the world. If the United States dares to have a direct military conflict with either China or Russia, the power vacuum exposed by the United States in other regions will become larger and larger, and the United States' global status will fall faster. The current world is a bit like China in 1947. Chiang Kai-shek had to change the all-out attack to a focused attack due to strength reasons. The more the Nationalist government wanted to carry out big operations, the faster it lost the ability to take the initiative to attack.

Whether Pelosi will visit Taiwan again has become the most concerning thing in the world these days.

To analyze whether Pelosi will visit Taiwan and whether she dares to visit Taiwan, we cannot rely on blind guessing, but must establish an analysis framework.

1. Let’s first look at the general background of this incident:

The United States’ global strength relative to China’s advantages, as well as its disadvantages relative to China in the Taiwan Strait region and China’s surrounding areas, are the basis for determining the future direction of Pelosi’s incident. The former will make some American politicians take provocative actions that cross the line, and the latter will allow American decision-makers to regain their composure. Not only is China’s actual power factors teaching the United States how to do things, but the historical memory and psychological shadow of ’s efforts to resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea will remind the United States to pay enough attention to China’s warnings on the Taiwan issue. When it comes to war issues, the psychological advantages established by Chairman Mao's generation against US imperialism are still there, and the intangible assets left to China by and are simply too great.

2. Secondly, let’s look at whether the United States now has the ability and will to fight a war with a big country.

Although the United States has turned anti-China into political correctness, this does not mean that the United States is ready for a war with a big country.

First of all, the military strength of the United States does not allow it.

Who are the decision-makers in the United States on issues of war and peace? This kind of national event is certainly not the final decision of Lopez, nor is it even the final say of Biden .

This matter depends first on the attitude of the US military. After all, once the war starts, the US military will be the first person responsible. The U.S. military's attitude of fearing and avoiding war has long been clear. The book "Crisis" in the United States revealed that Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley had two secret phone calls with the Chinese military to prevent Trump from launching a war on the spur of the moment, ensuring that the United States would not launch a war against China. He also emphasized that if there were any attacks, he would tell China in advance. Moreover, this was not Milley’s personal choice. When Milley called China, 14 other people participated. Milley is a powerful person representing the U.S. military and the entire United States. He maintains direct communication with the Chinese military to prevent conflicts between the two armies due to politicians' decisions. For this reason, Milley has been able to sit firmly on the throne of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff despite being accused of "treason" by members of the US Congress.

This is the true attitude of the US military and even the real decision-makers towards military conflicts between major powers.

A similar situation also occurs between the United States and Russia. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. president and military have repeatedly reiterated their position that they will not directly end in a military conflict with Russia. The U.S. Department of Defense also found ways to restore telephone contact with the Russian Ministry of Defense . According to the Associated Press on May 24, it was General Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who discussed a series of issues including the situation in Ukraine with Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov on the phone and agreed to Keep lines of communication open.

Why does the arrogant US military now attach so much importance to military communication with major powers? Just one purpose, to prevent the gun from misfiring.

Because the U.S. military best understands the true strength of the United States and the current situation of the United States, can it support the United States in fighting a war with a major power? Waging a war is not the key, but whether it can be won is the key. Without a fight, the United States can maintain its number one position in the world for a while longer. Once it loses, the good times of the United States will immediately come to an end.

Historically, Spain and the United Kingdom quickly ended their world dominance because they lost the war.

In addition to worrying that there will be no winner in a nuclear war , the US military is also not confident in whether it can win a military war with a major power.

The U.S. military is now facing the same problem that armies under the afterglow of the past empire have to face together: the empire has entered a period of decline. Although national power and military power remain strong on the surface, signs of faster decline often appear within the military.

Let’s not talk about the example of Spain. A naval battle with Britain bid farewell to the center stage of history. In the past, Great Britain's overall poor performance in and in World War II also ended its world hegemony. Because of the poor performance of the British army, the Battle of Burma turned into the Defense of Burma. The British army's combat effectiveness was so bad that even the Chinese national army scorned it.When the spirit of a country's army is broken, even if it is well-equipped, it cannot win the battle.

Corruption in the U.S. military is now seriously out of control. Here are a few examples to give you a glimpse of the whole story. Wal-Mart cups priced at $5, the military purchase price becomes $740! Amazon platform sells coffee cup with built-in heating function for US$15, which becomes US$1,200 on the military's purchase order. The folding chair that costs US$30 will cost US$3,500 when it reaches the military. A toilet seat on the US Air Force's transport aircraft costs up to US$10,000. As long as there is dirt on it, the logistics staff will replace it immediately. The US military stationed in Afghanistan spent US$6 million to airlift 9 goats from Italy to Afghanistan, and these 9 goats were quickly "reported as damaged" and were reportedly made into delicacies by the locals.

Can such an army still afford a war between major powers?

The U.S. military has had frequent accidents in recent years, many of which were completely unnecessary. This is also a sign of a serious decline in the U.S. military's management capabilities and combat effectiveness.

In 2021, the USS Connecticut SNN-22, a US Navy "Seawolf"-class nuclear submarine, hit an unknown seamount while snorkeling in the South China Sea.

In early July this year, a US military F/A-18 "Super Hornet" fighter jet was blown into the Mediterranean Sea from the deck of the "Truman" aircraft carrier. By the end of July, at least 10 more helicopters were severely damaged by strong winds at the naval base, resulting in heavy losses.

The F-22, a powerful weapon in the United States, has long been exposed to have design problems, and even the production line has been stopped. Just as Pelosi was about to defend against Taiwan, the U.S. Air Force announced on July 29 that it would ground all F35A fighter jets due to ejection seat problems.

No matter how advanced the weapons are, people will always be the first factor. When an army has serious problems with its daily management, will the powerful U.S. military still have confidence in the U.S. military?

The U.S. military avoids war not just to cherish its own feathers, but also to expose the truth about the paper tiger of the United States to the world more slowly, which can prolong the hegemony of the United States.

Secondly, the U.S. economy does not allow it.

The U.S. economy now has at least five major problems that affect the U.S. military potential.

First, the United States is deindustrializing . The manufacturing advantages of the United States are no longer comprehensive but only partial. A large number of manufacturing industries have been transferred out of the United States through industrial transfer. This is because the United States relies heavily on imports and has maintained a trade deficit for many years. the root cause. China, which the United States has identified as its biggest rival, has become the world's only largest manufacturing system with a full industrial chain. Military strength is never as simple as comparing and calculating who has more aircraft, ships, and missiles. Military potential relies more on manufacturing strength.

Second, the U.S. economy is now in the most difficult state of stagflation. The economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, and the inflation rate has just hit a 40-year high of 9.1%. Can the United States in this state afford a war with a major power? Of course not. If the stagflation problem is not solved, it will kill the United States. The last time the United States encountered domestic stagflation was 50 years ago. The entire decade of stagflation put the United States in a situation where it was more defensive than offensive when facing the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union had not embarked on a revision and the ideology had lost its ability to penetrate the United States, there would be a high probability that a large-scale domestic revolution would break out in the United States. The United States is now more polarized, and the new stagflation problem will bring more troubles and challenges to the United States. Therefore, U.S. policymakers have made solving the inflation problem their top priority, because if this problem is not solved well, the foundation of U.S. stability will be shaken. The last anti-war climax in the United States broke out during the period of economic stagflation in the United States. If it launches a war against foreign countries during a period of stagflation, does the United States think it will die too slowly?

The third is the huge domestic economic bubble in the United States, which cannot withstand a war of medium or larger scale.

The United States has just concluded an unprecedented monetary release, euphemistically called "quantitative easing."Before 2008, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was approximately US$900 billion. From 2008 to 2014, the Federal Reserve conducted three rounds of quantitative easing. At the end of QE3 in 2014, the size of the Fed's balance sheet expanded to 4.5 trillion. From 2015 to 2020, the Fed's asset size was reduced to 4.2 trillion at the beginning of 2020. Because we encountered a new crisis, we began to expand our balance sheet crazily again. On May 26, 2022, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has reached US$8.9 trillion.

Various financial derivatives in the United States have reached a scale of several hundred billion to tens of trillions of dollars, while the United States' GDP is only more than 20 trillion U.S. dollars. Among them, the ability of the manufacturing industry to create material wealth is still declining. The United States Such an economic structure is extremely unstable and is akin to building a tower on sand. Military war is a contest of real wealth. This is why Russia’s GDP is similar to that of Guangdong Province, but its war potential can compete with (or even surpass) the entire Europe. The development of the virtual economy is not good news. It will quickly drain a country's war potential.

Fourth, the social polarization in the United States makes the ability of American society to withstand pressure very fragile. After all, 40% of households in the United States cannot afford $400 in cash, and tens of millions of people in the United States need relief.

Fifth, the financial situation of the United States is also worrying. The debt of the U.S. federal government has exceeded 30 trillion U.S. dollars, and the fiscal deficit in the past two years has exceeded the level of 2 trillion U.S. dollars per year. Moreover, the game of spending money and spending money continues.

The United States has followed the path of British decline.

There is no need to analyze other factors. The above two factors can determine that the United States will not, dare not, and do not want to face military conflicts with major powers.

Maintain the deterrent power of the U.S. military, but a war cannot break out to expose the extent of U.S. weakness. This is the current bottom line for U.S. decision-makers.

3. It is impossible for the United States to fight China for Taiwan, let alone Pelosi.

Taiwan is China’s core interest, but it is not the core interest of the United States.

The United States is playing the Taiwan card to contain China's rise or to extract more benefits from China. It is not trying to fight China desperately for Taiwan. Especially as the US capital is in charge, costs and benefits must be calculated in everything. For Taiwan to fight China, how can we calculate that the benefits outweigh the costs in the face of China's current military strength?

This determines four points:

1. On the Taiwan issue, the United States cannot be determined to go to war with China in order to help defend Taiwan.

2. Even if the United States wants to play a "coward" game of will with China, it will not gain the upper hand.

Similar incidents have already occurred in the South China Sea confrontation in 2016. In 2016, due to the farce of arbitration in the South China Sea, the United States' dual aircraft carrier fleet demonstrated in the South China Sea. The US military's two aircraft carrier battle groups, the "Reagan" and the "Stennis", had a total of 10 warships and 150 fighter aircraft of various types. He stood up and formed a battle formation! Navy 4-star Admiral Harris shouted to the US military to "get ready for war tonight!" China's three major fleets were all equipped with more than 100 warships of various types, conducting exercises in a combat-oriented manner! aircraft carrier killer 's Dongfeng 21D missile also made its debut at the right time. China has completed level one combat readiness for , and its Strategic Air Force and Strategic Rocket Force are also ready. What was the result? Seeing that China was really coming, two U.S. aircraft carriers quietly slipped away.

3. The United States can lose Taiwan, but China has absolutely no chance and will never allow it to lose Taiwan.

4. For its own core interests, China can bear an economic price that the United States cannot bear.

4. Will the United States be willing to bet the fate of the entire United States for Pelosi’s personal interests?

Why does Pelosi go to Taiwan? Many articles have analyzed it, and there are just a few possible reasons, arranged in order of importance and possibility:

1. Received benefits from Taiwan.

2. In order to divert domestic attention from the deep corruption scandal.

3. To score points for the Democratic Party in the midterm elections.

4. For the interests of the United States in the Asia-Pacific.

5. To defend democratic values

6. For the interests of Taiwan.

Judging from the attitude of the Democratic Party in the United States that does not support her going to Taiwan, Pelosi is not doing this for the United States and for the election of the Democratic Party. Among the above six possible reasons, only the first and second are true. Yes, from the third point onwards, they are all gimmicks. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this time is obviously for personal gain.

Politicians can openly kidnap party and national interests for personal gain. This is very American. But is the United States willing to endorse for Pelosi’s ? This endorsement means that the United States must be prepared for a war with China.

When the question of whether Lopez will go to Taiwan is transformed into whether the United States is willing to fight China on behalf of Pelosi in the Taiwan Strait, does the answer become much clearer?

Although the U.S. military is prepared to provide protection to Pelosi due to the face and responsibilities of the United States as a major power, what is the true attitude of the U.S. military?

Biden made it clear on July 20, “The U.S. military believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is not a good idea.” This is tantamount to revealing the military's trump card to China.

Faced with the strong counterattack by the Chinese military, what did the US military do? The U.S. Air Force announced on July 29 that it would ground all F35A fighter jets due to ejection seat issues. The F35A, the main fighter jet, has been grounded. How likely is it that the U.S. military will not hesitate to provoke a military conflict but also escort Pelosi during her visit to Taiwan?

Unless it is prepared for a head-on war conflict with China, any statement that the United States will resolutely defend Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is just whistling at night.

The United States was equipped with four aircraft carrier fleets when it fought Iraq . Facing an opponent like China, how many aircraft carriers would the United States have to cruise around in order to have the nerve to say that it would resolutely escort Pelosi's visit to Taiwan? The actions of a USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group still in the South China Sea do not provide sufficient security protection for Pelosi. What's more, whether the Reagan aircraft carrier is really for Pelosi or a face-saving project is still a question.

5. How to seize the initiative in the situation in the Taiwan Strait

The United States is playing the Taiwan card to create more obstacles to China's rise, but it also shows that the United States has fewer and fewer cards to play. What's more, the Taiwan card is not that easy to play. It is easy to cross the line. Crossing the line means that the situation is out of control. This is what the United States does not want. The United States wants controllable chaos, but does not want chaos to get out of control.

According to the previous analysis, the United States currently has no determination to engage in direct military conflict with major powers.

Because of two factors, the Taiwan issue is becoming more and more of a burden for the United States: first, the power advantage around the Taiwan Strait is no longer on its own side but on China's side; second, time is not on its own but on China's side. The second point makes the United States worry that China will launch retaliatory actions at any time, and the United States is increasingly less confident that it can stop it; the first point makes the United States dare not take too many risks for fear of losing control of the situation and causing the collapse of the U.S. security framework in the Western Pacific .

The U.S.’s Taiwan policy now actually wanders within a narrow range of disgusting China but not really irritating China, and this range is becoming increasingly narrow.

Pelosi’s latest attempt to test China’s bottom line. China's tough attitude is a clear line in the U.S.'s Taiwan policy.

The United States has not stopped Pelosi yet because it wants to further confirm whether Pelosi has touched China's bottom line. Once confirmed, the United States will stop Pelosi.

Therefore, this game mainly depends on the determination and attitude shown by China. What the United States needs to do now is to play a game of wills with China to test China's true bottom line.

For China, when it comes to matters involving core interests, the cost is not critical. As long as it can win and achieve a unified goal, the Chinese people can afford it if the economic cost is higher, and most people can. Be willing to bear it.What's more, China can protect the basic living standards of ordinary people through its wartime economic model. Once the economic field switches to a model dominated by socialist forces, many problems that seem difficult to solve now, including serious involution, will not be that big of a problem.

In order to choose a better time, you can prepare for a few more years, but it is absolutely impossible to swallow your anger in the face of the opponent's provocation to break through the bottom line.

At that time, the United States was determined to fight the Soviet Union for the purpose of the Cuban Missile Crisis and forced the Soviet Union to retreat. For the sake of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, China should and can do more.

Although a better time to solve the unification problem should at least include: the shortcomings of China's industrial chain that can affect the manufacturing industry and the overall economy have been greatly compensated; China's energy security has been basically guaranteed; China's dollar foreign exchange and U.S. debt scale It has been reduced to a very safe level, and those forces in China that cooperate with outsiders have carried out a relatively systematic cleanup. China is stepping up its preparations. It will take about three to five years (before 2027) to be basically ready.

But if an emergency occurs, and if the opponent's provocation exceeds China's tolerance bottom line, China does not have to wait until preparations are particularly complete before launching the unification process.

I repeat again: For China, when it comes to matters involving core interests, the cost is not critical. As long as it can win and achieve a unified goal, the Chinese people can afford it if the economic cost is higher. Most people are willing to bear it. The best time for

is always a theoretical issue, and the optimal solution is often just an ideal state. You can strive to do your best, but you don’t have to constrain yourself.

The core interests cannot be measured by economic data. On the Taiwan issue, territorial sovereignty interests and security interests far outweigh economic interests. No matter how high the cost of resolving the unification issue is, it is just an economic issue and will not be higher than the benefits China will gain from unification and the costs China will pay due to China's non-unification. What's more, only by solving the unification issue can the upper limit of many economic issues be raised. For example, the issue of confidence in the RMB is seriously limited by the unresolved unification issue. Therefore, I have always believed that five years ago, one of the political conditions for the RMB to truly go global is to solve the unified problem. The Taiwan issue is not a local issue, but an issue involving the overall survival and development of China.

As long as China has the determination and will to prevent Pelosi from visiting Taiwan at all costs, the initiative will be in China's hands, and China will definitely be the winner.

6. Although Pelosi is a serious provocation, it is actually a move that makes China stupid and creates opportunities for China. We need to respond appropriately and turn challenges into opportunities.

In order to divert the attention of the United States from her insider trading, Pelosi chose to play the Taiwan card to divert attention, but it was also a foolish move.

As long as China’s will is determined enough and its attitude is tough enough, the United States will not fight China for Pelosi, and it will be impossible for the United States to fight China to the end for Pelosi.

Even if Pelosi insists on going her own way and China takes measures to defeat Pelosi, will the United States go to war with China over this? I think the same cannot be said.

A scandal-ridden Pelosi is not a very precious heavy asset in the United States, allowing the United States to dare to break through various restrictions and fight with China. What's more, Pelosi still kidnaps the United States for personal purposes. Not many Democrats in the United States support her, but many Republicans in the United States support her in order to gain traction. If the United States cannot dissuade Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, there is a high probability that the U.S. government and military will cut off from Pelosi's behavior. In fact, from Biden's statement on behalf of the military to Biden's dialogue with the Chinese head of state, this cut has already begun.

As long as Pelosi dares to visit Taiwan, her plane cannot land safely.

Of course there is another possibility, Pelosi quietly enters the village.If this is the case, the political significance of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan will be greatly reduced. If the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the world's largest country visits Taiwan in this way, it will become a joke to the world. Of course, even so, China will not allow it. China can find ways to prevent her from leaving.

Pelosi has not yet publicly announced whether Taiwan will be included in her Asia trip. This is not very face-saving for proud Americans, especially politicians who want to gain points in their domestic political games by preventing Taiwan. things.

Does Pelosi still dare to visit Taiwan? Not only is the world eager to know the answer to this question, but Pelosi herself is probably increasingly unsure and confused. This time, Pelosi underestimated the intensity of China’s response and China’s determination to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China’s current attitude forces Pelosi herself to recalculate the pros and cons of her trip to Taiwan. Only when the personal benefits outweigh the risks and costs will it be possible to continue going to Taiwan. The risks here also include risks to Pelosi’s personal safety.

Even if Pelosi is willing to take risks alone regardless of the cost, whether she can make the trip depends on whether the United States is willing to endorse her personal choice.

The tough attitude of the Chinese government is turning the issue of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan from a problem for China to a problem for Pelosi and the US decision-makers.

The more determined and proactive China becomes, the more this matter will become a problem for the United States, and more Americans will come out to stop Pelosi; it can also divide Taiwan at the same time, and there are many Taiwanese people now. He opposed Pelosi's visit to Taiwan because of concerns about the risk of war.

China can completely turn Pelosi's provocative behavior into an opportunity for China to further take the initiative in the situation across the Taiwan Strait and even resolve the reunification issue in advance.

It is certainly not the most ideal time for China, but if Pelosi presents the opportunity, it can also take the opportunity to turn challenges into opportunities. Transforming contradictions is the best strategy.

For example, if Pelosi officially announces her decision to visit Taiwan, can China immediately add Taiwan's airspace to China's air defense identification zone on the grounds that there have been major changes in the situation in Taiwan? Didn’t the US military announce the grounding of the F35A? The opportunity is also a good fit.

This will not only prevent Pelosi from landing in Taiwan, but also prevent Pelosi from going to Taiwan quietly if China is unprepared. If the United States does not pay a sufficient price, it will not be allowed to leave easily.

As for whether to recover in one fell swoop, China can make a comprehensive judgment based on its own wishes. I believe our decision-makers have made relevant plans this time.

7. Summary

In short, China will take advantage of this opportunity presented by Pelosi to clearly draw the red line on the Taiwan issue for the United States.

China is united this time. From the official media to ordinary netizens, everyone has shown a strong will to support reunification. Many netizens are gearing up and watching Pelosi's Asia trip with hopeful eyes, hoping that China will use this opportunity to resolve the unification issue in advance.

Faced with a country where 1.4 billion people are united to achieve reunification, to borrow a word from a great man, make trouble, fail, make trouble again, fail again, until destruction - this is the logic of imperialism and all reactionaries in the world.

When the spirit of a country's army is broken, even if it is well-equipped, it cannot win the battle.

Can such an army still afford a war between major powers?

In 2021, the USS Connecticut SNN-22, a US Navy "Seawolf"-class nuclear submarine, hit an unknown seamount while snorkeling in the South China Sea.

Secondly, the U.S. economy does not allow it.

The U.S. economy now has at least five major problems that affect the U.S. military potential.

The third is the huge domestic economic bubble in the United States, which cannot withstand a war of medium or larger scale.

The United States has just concluded an unprecedented monetary release, euphemistically called "quantitative easing."