When the word diplomacy is mentioned, most people think of diplomats who are elegant and dressed in suits and ties. They come and go in international political situations. They use superb political talking skills to achieve the purpose of fighting for the interests of their country. But in fact, military means are also an integral part of diplomacy, and war can basically be regarded as the least efficient stage of diplomacy. On the other hand, when a country declares or admits that it is in a state of war, whether it takes the initiative to start a war or is involved in a war, it means that the country's other diplomatic methods have basically reached a dead end, and it can only solve the problem through war with the highest risks and costs.
Russian President Putin attended the press conference
Specifically, looking at the 10-month conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russian President Putin finally admitted that the military collision between Russia and Ukraine was a war. According to The Paper , Putin publicly used the word "war" for the first time at a press conference. He said that Russia's goal is not to turn the flywheel of military conflict, but to end this "war." From the "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine to the "Russian-Ukrainian War", the seemingly simple change in name actually hides an extremely important meaning.
Russia had previously banned the use of "war" to describe the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Many people may not know that for a long time after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, it was actually an illegal act to use the word "war" to describe the war in Russia. Putin specifically signed a decree making the use of "misleading terminology" a criminal offense. According to the Russian Federation Constitution, those involved in this crime can be sentenced to up to 15 years in prison.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict evolved into a "proxy war"
It is not difficult to find that the Putin government initially judged the scale and duration of this war quite conservatively, believing that it was likely to be a "quick victory" battle and would not develop into a "war", so it was enough to characterize it in the name of a "special military operation." Doing so has at least two major benefits. One is to reduce public opinion and moral doubts about Russia from the outside world. The other is to reduce Russia's domestic worries about war, especially to avoid panic and outflow of economic capital in Russia due to the "outbreak of war." However, it now appears that the 10-month-long war has evolved into a "proxy war" between Russia and the Western world. The scale and intensity of the war are no longer a simple "special military operation."
Russia may have entered a wartime state
Since Putin, the Russian president, has personally admitted that this is a war, it may to a considerable extent mean that Russia will give up its long-standing ambiguous attitude of "still holding the pipa half-hidden", and then move the country into a wartime state, and may even start a "total war." You must know that when a country enters a state of war, the central government has the right to pool all available domestic manpower, material and financial resources in accordance with the law, and allocate and use them according to war needs.
The Russian army recruits new soldiers
Especially on the key issue of conscription, countries in wartime are likely to relax the age limit for conscription, such as raising the maximum age limit and lowering the minimum age limit for enlisted personnel, and increasing the recruitment of female soldiers. Active-duty soldiers who are on leave must end their leave immediately without any conditions and return to their units to report as quickly as possible. Reservists need to be prepared to serve again, and those registered as reserves also need to be prepared to do the same.
The Russian military's approach to Ukraine has changed.
As for "total war", it not only emphasizes the comprehensive use of all the country's forces to carry out war, but also highlights the "comprehensive destruction" of hostile countries, such as destroying the other party's economy, attacking the production capacity of light and heavy industries, attacking various military and civilian infrastructure, seizing other countries' resources, and even including some civilian areas in the scope of attacks. Not only that, on all kinds of "invisible battlefields", we must also achieve comprehensive confrontation with enemy countries in the fields of diplomacy, psychology, science and technology, and culture. It can be said that this concept is very close to the "hybrid war" newly proposed by the United States in recent years.
There have been power and water outages in Ukraine.
Judging from Russia’s domestic policies and the Russian military’s recent tactics, the Putin government may be very close to launching a “general war”, such as announcing the expansion of the Russian military to 1.5 million people, mobilizing 300,000 reservists to participate in the war, increasing the resource tilt in the military industry and increasing the scale of arms production, attacking various civilian infrastructure in Ukraine... and so on. It can be said that these are all means that serve the war in the true sense.
Ukraine may be wiped off the map
If you think about it with this logic, now that Putin has finally admitted that a war has broken out between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian government's current goal may be very different from the original goal, that is, it is no longer satisfied with the "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine, but to "completely defeat the country of Ukraine." As for the so-called "complete defeat", it usually includes the following methods, such as the complete occupation of the enemy's country, the complete elimination of the enemy's troops, the complete dismemberment of the enemy's territory, and even the elimination of such a country on the world map in the future.
Russia may be about to enter decisive battle mode
After 10 months, Putin seems to have finally made a new judgment and made up his mind. The war between Russia and Ukraine may usher in a new stage. In the future, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will "dedicate all its efforts to complete the victory in one battle" and launch a large-scale battle that can determine the outcome of the war and Ukraine's life and death. I don’t know if there will be an “black swan” event on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield in the upcoming 2023.
