On the topic of how to end the war in Ukraine and how to treat post-war Russia, there are differences of opinion between Ukraine and the major powers, between Eastern Europe and Western Europe , and between the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. Congress. This difference can be regarded as the difference between idealism and realism in the same camp, or the difference between radicals and conservatives. The focus of disagreement is how much land Ukraine needs to regain before a ceasefire occurs. The Ukrainian president has repeatedly reiterated that Russia must withdraw from all occupied lands and return to the 1991 borders. Another opinion is to go back to the actual boundary when the war broke out on February 24. After all, even if Russia is unable to attack, it is still capable of defending Wudong. There is also a theory about how to punish Russia after the war. There is a theory that Russia should be disintegrated to eliminate the "Russian Bear" troubles. This is the wish of the Eastern European countries that were previously ruled by the Soviet Union.
But if Russia is broken, will other countries be safe? I would like to introduce an article by an American scholar, his name is Walter Russell Mead. He is a researcher at the Hudson Institute, a global opinion columnist for the Wall Street Journal and a professor of diplomacy and humanities at Bard College in New York. The title of Professor Mead's article is: Now is the time to "prepare" for peace in Ukraine. I think this article is reasonable in its prediction of how to end the war and its consequences.
The article writes that the rise of major powers such as China, Russia and Iran has awakened the Western Alliance from complacency and carelessness, and begun to revisit an important truth that has been forgotten, that is, one must be prepared for war during peace, and vice versa, during war, people must also be prepared for peace. Putin The war in Ukraine is Europe's worst conflict since 1945 and continues to intensify. As winter approaches, Russia escalates its brutal campaign to force Ukraine to surrender by destroying its power infrastructure. Ukraine responds by striking targets deep in Russia's heartland. While continuing to help Ukraine, Americans must also start thinking about what kind of peace they want. Making peace is difficult, and as Polish friends who worked hard to rebuild society after the Soviet Union once said, it is easier to turn an aquarium into fish soup than to turn fish soup back into an aquarium.
First of all, the war should end as soon as possible. The longer the war is delayed, the more destructive it will be.
Second, the war should end with a real peace, which means that the battle should not just subside into a frozen conflict that may break out at any time. We hope that this war will end with a treaty, not just a truce between the armies.
Third, the way the war ended should make it clear that Russia's "aggression" does not go unpunished, and that future Russian leaders and potential aggressors elsewhere need to see that wars to conquer other countries are costly.
Fourth, the end of this war should not pave the way for the next war. How to ensure that Russia does not go to war with other neighboring countries after this war is over? If you just put a no fishing sign on one side of the river, that means fishing is still allowed on the rest, and Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Belarus are not included in NATO, so Russia has invaded or subverted them. This current war needs to end with a clear security framework.
For countries that want to join NATO, joining NATO is a simple solution, but there are other possible solutions. The United States does not want a war, and ending with the disintegration of the Russian Federation could produce the worst-case scenario. The collapse of authority throughout Russia would trigger chaos and war throughout the Caucasus. It would trigger a nightmare, with nuclear weapons and materials sold to the highest bidder. A stable Russia is much better than an anarchy zone extending from Ukraine to the Pacific Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea.
At the same time, he believes that unless the Russian state completely collapses, Moscow is unlikely to hand over Ukraine, all the land it wants to recover, pay all the compensation Ukraine wants, or allow Ukraine and its sympathizers to conduct "war crimes" investigations and trials.
U.S. and Western security and aid commitments could help Ukrainians accept an inevitable, imperfect peace treaty.
