Beijing News (Reporter Jiang Huizi) On May 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to propose further optimization of the birth policy, implement the policy of a couple having three children, and give 10 supporting measures. China has officially entered the era of "three children".
Not long ago, the results of of the seventh national census of were released. In 2020, China's newborn population was 12 million, and the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age dropped to 1.3, which was at a low level. At the same time, the age of marriage and childbirth has been delayed and the scale of women of childbirth age has been declining.
Co-founder of Ctrip Group and population economist Liang Jianzhang once said in an exclusive interview with Beijing News that the main reason why young people do not like to have children is high housing prices and high education costs. To effectively increase the birth rate of requires the government to come up with real money. He suggested that 10% of GDP be used to reward and subsidize families, with a total of 1 million yuan in state subsidies for each child, which caused controversy at the time.
After the "three children" policy was announced, the reporter interviewed Liang Jianzhang again. He said that the more important significance of implementing the "three children" policy is that it reflects that my country's birth policy has truly begun to move from "restricting births" to "encouraging births". At the same time, various female-friendly measures are advocated to solve problems such as childcare and maternity leave, which will be very helpful for improving the fertility rate .
The National "14th Five-Year Plan" Outline also has arrangements for population development, and it is proposed to promote the realization of moderate fertility levels, reduce the costs of family fertility, raising and education, and release the potential of fertility policies. Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the number of children who have children of childbearing age in my country is 1.8. As long as corresponding support measures are taken, the actual fertility potential can be realized.
Liang Jianzhang, co-founder of Ctrip Group and population economist. Photo provided by the interviewee
talk about the effect
can truly improve the fertility rate. The key lies in the implementation of supporting policies
Beijing News: What effect will the "three children" policy bring?
Liang Jianzhang: We can use other countries as references to measure it. Taking Japan, South Korea, etc. as an example, if the four children are not counted or more, only the number of births of the third child is calculated, which is generally 20%-30% of the number of people who have one child. The effect of the policy in
is expected to be reflected next year. Under such circumstances, the birth figures for next year will look better, part of which is the reason for the better control of the epidemic, and the role of implementing the "three-child" policy.
Beijing News: Why did propose to let go of third children instead of letting children go in full? What's the difference?
Liang Jianzhang: I personally believe that the effect of fully liberalizing childbirth and the relaxation of third children is actually not much different, and there are actually fewer ones who actually have four or even more. But the country is indeed cautious in this regard.
I think the most important significance of this policy lies in its iconicity, reflecting that my country's birth policy has truly moved from "restricted childbirth" to "encouraging childbirth". This directional adjustment indicates that more supporting policies will be introduced in the future in encouraging childbirth. Whether
can truly improve the fertility rate is the key to the implementation of these supporting policies in the future so that people can afford it. These policies are very complex and take a certain amount of time.
talk about supporting policies
solves the problem of childcare for 0-3 years old, and the government needs to pay for the company's maternity leave
Beijing News: The supporting policies of mention reducing the expenditure on family education . Can this really alleviate the problem of excessive education costs?
Liang Jianzhang: Because it involves too wide, education can be said to be the most difficult policy in encouraging birth control. Overall, I think the farther you are from the college entrance examination, the more you can make a difference.
For example, the universal childcare policy will increase the proportion of childcare in the age group of 0-3 to the level of developed countries. This requires the construction of a lot of nurseries, or the existing kindergartens can accept younger children. If the childcare problem at the age of 0-3 is solved well, it will be very helpful for improving the fertility rate.
The closer you get to the college entrance examination, the more restricted you will be. For example, if you don’t let make up for your classes, parents will secretly give up for your children. Therefore, other reforms need to be carried out around the college entrance examination.Judging from the current policies, I do not think it can play a big role in reducing the cost of education.
Beijing News: supporting measures propose to "protect women's legal rights and interests in employment". How to solve the workplace difficulties encountered by women due to childbirth?
Liang Jianzhang: should promote various female-friendly measures to achieve equal rights between men and women in order to solve the problem. For example, men should also bear more responsibility for the division of housework, and policies should be reduced in terms of illegitimate childbirth.
What can help women the most directly is to develop childcare. If the country can provide childcare services at a low price, it will reduce the impact of childcare on women's career.
There is also maternity leave. The key point of maternity leave is that the government must be able to pay for the company or provide compensation to solve the discrimination against women by companies. Moreover, not only pay for women, but also pay for men who take maternity leave, men are encouraged to take maternity leave. Some countries even mandatory requirements for both men and women to take maternity leave.
In addition, we should advocate more flexible office and home work methods, and do not advocate 996. We can work flexibly during pregnancy or when the child is young, so that women can better arrange their careers.
talk about fertility intentions
"This generation of young people is indeed hard-working"
Beijing News: What impact will release the three-children on the mainstream "421" family structure? Does it mean that the generation of only children will bear heavier responsibilities for supporting and raising?
Liang Jianzhang: This generation of young people is indeed quite hard-working. The recent discussion of a lot of "lying flat" also shows that young people are under particularly stressful in their lives.
What is more gratifying this time is that while encouraging childbirth, the country has also given many supporting policies, including taxation, housing, education expenditure, etc. Although the specific measures have not been released yet, the direction is already clear.
In general, although China's fertility costs are indeed relatively high worldwide, China is a big country and has more resources and policy space to solve this problem. The young people in the future may be less stressful than they are now.
Beijing News: What do you think of your attitude towards "no one is born"?
Liang Jianzhang: Many people don’t have any children, or even get married, this is the most urgent reality. This is the lifestyle chosen by some young people and it is difficult to change.
In fact, after giving birth to a first child, the marginal cost of having a second child is far less than the cost of having a first child, and the cost of having a third child is also far less than the cost of having a second child. Therefore, if the problem of having one is solved, the effect of the second and third children should be OK.
To solve the problem of giving birth, we should give supporting measures a certain amount of time to implement them, solve problems such as childcare services and education, and truly reduce the cost of parenting .
Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi
edited by Bai Shuang proofreading Chen Diyan
