On February 24, 2022, Russian President Putin delivered an emergency live TV speech on the situation in Ukraine that he had decided to carry out special military operations in the Donbass area, and said that Russia has no plan to "invade" Ukraine. In view of the continuous expansion of NATO in the east and the deterioration of Russia's security environment, Russia has no choice but to make this decision. Subsequently, Ukrainian President Zelensky declared that the entire territory of Ukraine had entered a wartime state and had mobilized all military forces and special forces. The Russian-Ukraine War then began, and the war is still in a stalemate. After the war broke out, the United States and Western countries launched devastating sanctions on Russia, causing global economic and financial turmoil.
Russia and Ukraine are both franchise republics of the former Soviet Union. They have the same nation, the same culture, and believe in the same religion. Why did they reach the same war today? What is the historical context? Where is the root cause of the war?
1. NATO's commitment when the two Germans were reunified
On February 9, 1990, then US Secretary of State James Baker assured the then supreme leader of the Soviet Union that "if Germany agreed to remain in NATO after unification, NATO's military power would never move one inch east." On February 10, Baker wrote a letter to the then Federal German Chancellor Kohl, clearly stating that "the NATO military force will never move one inch east" was exchanged for the Soviet Union to agree that "the unified Germany will continue to stay in NATO." The Soviet Union's then supreme leader believed in this promise. Of course, the developments that have continued to this day since 1997 proved that this is a deception: 14 countries have been developed into NATO members, and NATO's military power has indeed not moved an inch, but has moved thousands of miles, directly forcing Russia to a situation where there is no other choice but to give it a try.
Germany
This is one of the sources of the war launched by Presidents Russia and Putin. Russia believes that NATO's eastward expansion and even hopes to include Ukraine in NATO is a serious betrayal of the original political commitment, and a contempt and insult to its status as a great power.
2. American shock therapy successfully ransacked the Russian economy
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia reformed according to the plans provided by the United States and the West (the familiar "shock therapy"), and achieved privatization by liberalizing prices, tightening currency and fiscal policies, and implementing free trade and means. In early 1992, large-scale privatization began under the leadership of then Prime Minister Geidal. Since the implementation of shock therapy is mostly related to American manipulation, it has had a very big impact on the Russian economy. The wealth of the Russian people has been plundered, and many oligarchs have emerged, and many oligarchs have emerged, etc. In the years since then, Russia's economy plummeted. During Yeltsin's rule, oligopoly monopoly , prices soared, corruption rampant, consumption was sluggish, unemployment surged, tax burden was too heavy, a large number of enterprises went bankrupt, state-owned assets were sold at a low price, the treasury was empty, Chechnya was independent, and the country was almost on the verge of collapse and division. The failure of shock therapy has almost cut Russia's GDP by half, with a total GDP of only 1/10 of that of the United States.
Now many scholars call the "shock therapy" formulated by Americans for Russia a secret economic war and wealth looting against Russia, successfully dragging Russia into a state of decline and division. The reform ended in failure, during which a large number of state-owned assets were illegally annexed by oligarchs, and these huge assets and wealth were transferred to the United States and Europe by oligarchs.
If Putin had not come to power in 1999, governing the country with an iron fist, punishing oligarchs, combating corruption, developing the economy, and reorganizing the military, Russia might have been divided again today.
3. NATO began to expand eastward
Just as Russia and Yeltsin was at its weakest point, NATO and the United States began to expand eastward. Starting from the absorption of Hungary, Poland, and 23 countries in 1999, it has carried out five eastward expansions. By 2020, North Macedonia End as a member of NATO. Currently, NATO has 30 members, and NATO forces have arrived on the Russian border. Among them, NATO members Baltic Borders are less than 200 kilometers away from the Russian capital Moscow and the largest economic center St. Petersburg Facilities are closest to the nearest straight line, and are bordering the Russian border.
NATO's five eastward expansion timetable
4. NATO extends his hand to Ukraine
After NATO's five eastward expansions, the strategic barrier to the west of Russia was only Belarus and Ukraine, but the United States and NATO are still not satisfied. In 2014, the United States and NATO still extend their hand to Russia's largest European neighbor, the former Soviet Union franchise republic Ukraine.
In February 2014, a color revolution occurred in Ukraine. A large number of people flocked to the streets, blocked traffic, destroyed public facilities, smashed, looted and burned, making the government unable to govern, and social life fell into chaos, which eventually led to the collapse of the pro-Russian Yanukovych government.
Ukraine color revolution
And like the color revolutions that have taken place around the world, the color revolution in Ukraine in 2014 was also manipulated and dominated by the US government. In 2015, then-US President Barack Obama admitted to the US media CNN that the United States actively participated in the entire process of the 2014 Ukraine coup. At that time, the United States' assistant secretary of state for European affairs, Victoria Newland said that the United States spent $5 billion on Ukraine.
After the Yanukovych government was illegally overthrown, Russia merged the Crimean Peninsula and supported the independence of the two states in eastern Ukraine. After that, Russia suffered a series of sanctions from the West, and Russia's relations with the West fell to a low point. This incident made Russia and Putin completely realize that a strong independent Russia will not be accepted by the United States and the West, and the West will continue to weaken Russia. This incident, the author believes, is a turning point in the relationship between modern Russia and the West.
5. The United States withdraws from the Intermediate-Range Rail Treaty exacerbates tensions
What's even more fatal is that during the Trump administration, the United States withdrew from the Treaty on Eliminating Medium-Range and Medium-Short-Range Missiles in 2019. The treaty was signed in 1987. That is to say, from 1987 to 2019, the United States could not deploy short-range, medium-range missiles with a range of 500-5,500 kilometers in Europe. ( cruise missile is also included)
medium-range missile only takes a few minutes from launch to hit, and has higher strike accuracy. For example, the "Military 3" deployed in the United States has more than half an hour of early warning time from launch to hit, which is better intercepted and has an accuracy of more than tens of meters.
If the medium-range missile is deployed in Baltic Three Kingdoms or Poland, the missile can reach Moscow in 10 minutes. The United States withdrew from the INF Treaty, which immediately made Russia feel huge pressure and danger. This represents the escalating US strategic suppression and hostility towards Russia.
After the war between Russia and Ukraine, Putin delivered a national speech, which talked about the dangers of NATO's eastward expansion: "...The Tomahawk cruise missile arrives in Moscow less than 35 minutes, and it takes 7-8 minutes to launch the ballistic missile from the Kharkiv area, and it takes 4-5 minutes to strike at supersonic . This is called, putting the knife directly on the throat."
6, Zelensky was elected "accidentally"
Just at this time, comedian Zelensky was elected "accidentally" as the president of Ukraine. In fact, it is not surprising that Ukraine was already a marionette manipulated by the United States at this time. The United States has the final say. In the eyes of Americans, the political amateur born to the actors Better control, on April 21, 2019, Zelensky defeated then-President Peter Poroshenko and was elected the 6th Ukrainian President. Shortly after Zelensky came to power, he began to fail to comply with the Minsk Agreement reached by Russia, Ukraine and France, gathered forces to suppress militia organizations in eastern Ukraine, moved closer to the EU and NATO, and applied to join the EU and NATO. He said that Ukraine's joining NATO was the only way to end the Donbass conflict. At this time The United States began to provide military aid to Ukraine, armed Ukraine, and frequently drove warships into Ukraine's ports in Black Sea . Ukraine frequently performed military exercises with NATO and the US in Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine domestically reversed World War II and the Soviet army overturned the case, a large number of former Soviet ruins were cleared, and anti-Russian forces, especially neo-Nazis, began to grow bigger in Ukraine.
Zelensky and the United States jointly performed this drama, making Russia, which had a long border, till it was like a thorn. In the back, I feel deeply uneasy. Once Ukraine joins NATO, Russia's western region will open its doors and be safe and secure, and the entire Black Sea will also lose control. Russia will be firmly pressed by NATO on the edge of Europe, becoming a regional power more like an Asian country, and completely lose the opportunity to rise again.
Therefore, Putin believes that the current situation is very critical, and NATO has put the knife on the top of the knife. If we live in Russia's throat, if military means are not used, the consequences will be unimaginable, and the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out.
7. Conclusion
Since the merger of the two Germanys in the 1980s, the United States and Western countries have deceived the former Soviet Union and Russia countless times, constantly weakening Russia, and constantly suppressing Russia. This kind of deception For Russia, it is a kind of liquidation and insult by the winners, a disrespect for the status of Russia's major power, and an infringement on Russia's core interests.
You should know that in order to ease the tension between the East and the West, the former Soviet Union made historic concessions, agreed to the unification of East Germany and West Germany , and agreed to the unification of Germany in NATO. This concession is huge, because Germany, as the most powerful country in Europe, has been twice the world's largest The initiator of the war , once unification means something to the Soviet Union, the Soviets must know, and it is undoubtedly a deterrence and insecurity in the long run, but the former Soviet Union still agreed and compromised. But what did these end up in exchange for? The collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward five times, Russia was sanctioned by the West again and again, and Russia's national strength continued to decline in sanctions and encirclement. Therefore, we can imagine the anger and humiliation of the Russians over the years, so Russian President Putin cursed angrily that the United States and the West are empires of lies.
Russia-Ukraine war is a turning point in modern history. This time Russia's rebellion is also a struggle to save itself. The demonstration effect it produces will have a profound impact on modern geopolitics . Germany and Japan may remilitarize, EU will pursue national defense independence more, NATO will be forced to stop expanding eastward, and the hegemony of the United States, especially financial hegemony, will gradually collapse.
