Yesterday, the US crude oil rose first and then fell, and the US market accelerated its decline, and the lowest point had fallen to the 76.78 US crude oil decline was mainly due to the fact that countries have implemented restrictions on Russian oil prices. The oil and gas representative index SPSIOP finally closed down 4.67%. Including the day's exchange rate fell by 0.22%. Yesterday, oil and gas funds fell by nearly 5%, which is another big bowl of noodles. Thinking about the recent sharp pullback of oil and gas funds, I really want to cry without tears.
After the Russian oil cap was implemented, the tanker was blocked near Türkiye. About 19 crude oil tankers awaited passing through Turkish waters on Monday, according to sea brokers, oil traders and satellite tracking services. This suggests that the oil price cap could undermine global oil flows besides Russian exports.
Many countries responded to the price limit of Russian oil:
Japan said it will be synchronized with the EU and set a price limit for Russian crude oil; South Korea will continue to negotiate with relevant countries; India said that the impact of price limit on India is zero, and said it will purchase oil from any country that needs to be purchased; the United States will not consider using Russian oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves; British media said that the price limit effect is limited, and Europe may suffer its own consequences.
The attitude of Russian oil price limit this time has shown the positions of various countries. Recently, oil prices focus on macro-geographic disturbances, such as the upcoming CPI, the United States' interest rate hike in December, Russia's counterattack measures and OPEC's attitude towards the decline in oil prices. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the weather in Europe and the United States and the further relaxation of policies in China's epidemic situation, and oil prices may be volatile.
crude oil technical analysis and operation suggestions:
Yesterday, a large negative line directly gave up the increase in the previous 4 days. Although there was a rebound today, the overall price is still bearish. Pay attention to the support position of US$75.6 below and pay attention to the pressure position of US$83 above. The recent international situation is uneasy, so we will continue to wait and see steadily and then increase our positions after this wave of market stabilizes.
represents the index SPSIOP showing a clear short trend. Currently, it is not far from the support belt below to defend, but there is no signal to stop the decline. In addition, both the US stocks and crude oil are showing a downward trend, so in the short term, in terms of oil and gas funds, the stable one is still to stay on the wait and see. Continue to hold the original position and wait for the market to stop falling and rebound before increasing the position.
Calculation questions about oil and gas fund estimation:
A: Find the net value of oil and gas fund you see so far
B: Find the closing price of SPSIOP at 5 am on the day
C: Find the rise and fall of the US dollar against the RMB
Valuation calculation formula = A x (1+B x 0.9453) x (1-C)
Where 0.9453 is the estimated position, which is the position disclosed at the end of the third quarter of 2022. At present, this data is fixed. This is the estimated net value. During the actual management process, the fund position changes every day. There will be some errors in the net value. Please refer to the actual net value updated daily.
Warm reminder: The net value of the off-market oil and gas fund purchased before 15:00 today is calculated based on the net value of tonight-the early morning of the next day, and will not enjoy the profit and loss tonight. The net value of off-market oil and gas funds sold before 15:00 today is calculated based on the net value of tonight-early the next morning, and they have to bear the profit and loss tonight.
When we invest, we must operate based on our own risk tolerance. We should not blindly follow the trend. We should not take it out of context when reading articles. We should make strategies based on our own positions. The above content is for reference only and is not used as a basis for operation. Be cautious when placing orders when investing is risky.
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