Written by Steve Mirsky
Translation Meatle
Review Qiao Hong
There’s a story in the book, a story about people who took advantage of the law of innovation to win the lottery.” That’s mathematician David Hand, talking about his 2014 book The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events Happen Every Day. The law of innovation comes into play in lottery drawings—some set of numbers will be drawn, so a potential winning combination is inevitable. The key word being potential, as nobody has yet won the multi-state Powerball lottery. Which means that the jackpot for the next drawing, the night of January 13th, is up to some $1.3 billion. You could buy a ticket and hope. Or, as you may have mused, you could buy every possible set of numbers to inevitably win.
"In my book, there is a story about a group of people who won lotto using the law of necessity. "Mathematician David Hand talked about his 2014 book "The Principle of Impossible: Why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events Every Day". Lottery draws embody the law of necessity - a certain combination of numbers will be drawn, so a potential winning combination of numbers is bound to exist. The keywords here are potential, because no one has won the interstate power ball lottery. This means that the first prize will be awarded on the evening of January 13, which will reach $1.3 billion. You can just buy one round and wait for the good news. Or, you may have thought secretly, just buy all the combinations of numbers, and you will definitely win the grand prize.
"1992, Virginia State Lottery, the Virginia State Lottery is a 6/44 lottery, you have to choose six numbers out of 44, which means it’s a 1 in 7 million chance that a particular ticket will be the jackpot-winning ticket. Seven million. So if you buy all the tickets it would only cost you $7 million. So they waited until the rollover jackpot had built up to, hadn’t been won, so it built up over several weeks to $27 million. If you manage to spend $7 million and buy all the 7 million tickets you are guaranteed to hold the jackpot winning ticket. But there’s a lot of organization involved in this. In fact, what happened was they put together a consortium of 2,500 people, each of whom paid $3,000 or thereabouts, so they had $7 million. And then in the few days’ window they had available they ran around buying—trying to buy all the 7 million tickets."
" In Virginia Lotto in 1992, six numbers were selected from 44 numbers as the winning numbers, which means that the probability of any combination of numbers winning the first prize is one in seven million. Seven million, so if you buy all the numbers combinations it will only cost $7,000,000. So they kept waiting and watching until the jackpot doubled. A few weeks later, the prize money accumulated to $27,000,000 as no one won the prize. If you can spend $7 million to buy seven million lottery tickets, you can guarantee that you will hold the one that won the first prize. Attracted by huge bonuses, many organizations and gangs participated in the lottery. The reality is that they organized a brute-force lottery consortium of 2,500 people, paying about $3,000 each, thus raising $7 million in funds. At the same time, in a few days, they need to buy lottery tickets around and buy as many as possible seven million possible combinations. ”
Trying to buy. Because the consortium only managed to buy 5 million tickets. So winning was not inevitable, their chances were only five out of seven.
But in the end, the gang only bought five million lottery tickets. Therefore, this is not a must-win situation. They only have five in seven chances to win the first prize.
"As it happened, however, they did have the winning ticket, so they were guaranteed winning the jackpot. The organization beforehand, the logistics of running around trying to buy these tickets, the nail-biting looking through the tickets, it’s easier just to get a job."
" Despite this, they did get that winning lottery ticket, so these guys did win the first prize. However, such a hard-working organization, walking around to buy the logistics resources consumed by the lottery, waiting for the anxiety and anxiety of the lottery, to get such a little money, it would be better to go find a job."
So if you’re thinking of getting together a consortium for the Powerball, keep in mind that for this lottery there’s only a one in 292 million chance of winning. And tickets are two bucks a pop. So you and your buddies are going to have to come up with almost $600 million to buy every combo and take advantage of the law of innovation. And if others pick the same winning numbers and you have to split the winnings you could basically break even or even lose money.
So if you want to make a big gang for violence, remember that the winnings rate of this lottery is 1 in 292 million. At the same time, each lottery ticket is sold for two dollars. So you and your brothers have to raise about $600 million to buy every possible combination of numbers so that the law of necessity can guarantee you profit. Moreover, if someone else wins the first prize, you need to share the bonus with him, and even cause losses.
To put the frenzy in perspective, I like to recall the wisdom of statisticalian Michael Orkin, author of the book What Are the Odds? Chance in Everyday Life. Back in 2001, the Powerball jackpot had reached $295 million and the odds back then were better, only 175 million to one. Orkin told me, “if you have to drive 10 miles to buy a Powerball ticket, you’re 16 times more likely to get killed in a car crash on your way than you are to win.” So if you’re dead set on buying a lottery ticket, at least walk.
To put crazy ideas aside, I like to recall the golden words of statistician Michael Olkin, the author of “What is Probability: Opportunities in Life”. In 2001, the first prize of Powerball reached $295 million, and the probability of winning was even greater, reaching one in 175 million. Olkin and I shared some life experiences: "If you need to drive 10 miles to buy a power ball, your chances of dying from a traffic accident will be 16 times the winnings." So if you insist on buying a lottery ticket, you should at least walk to buy it.
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