In the early morning of last Saturday (14th), two Saudi oil facilities, known as the "world's most important oil refining platform", were attacked by drones, causing a fire.
TwitterVideo Screenshot
It is understood that this attack shut down half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, accounting for about 5% of the world's daily oil production.
Therefore, global oil-related markets were in a hurry:
Brent crude oil price once jumped nearly 20%, setting the largest single-day increase record since the opening of 199html in 81!
WTI crude oil futures price also rose by about 13%; on the 16th, Shanghai crude oil futures opened at the daily limit.
Saudi stock index plunged 2.3% on the opening on the 15th, and finally closed at a drop of 1.05%.
On Monday (16th), the A-share market opened higher, and the increase narrowed :
Intercontinental Oil and Gas, Baomo Co., Ltd. , and Beken Energy opened at the daily limit; China Petroleum opened nearly 4% , and Petrochemical Oil Service opened at the opening rose by more than 8%. Petrochemical Machinery, CNOOC Co., Ltd., CNOOC Engineering, Jerry Co., Ltd. and other stocks also showed a similar market. Airline stocks also fell sharply due to this.
In the Hong Kong stock market, against the backdrop of weakening of the market, the "three barrels of oil" rose against the market. As of the midday closing, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China National Petroleum Corporation shares and China National Petroleum Corporation Chemicals Corporation rose 6.22%, 5.45% and 1.62% respectively.
The main contract for domestic crude oil futures also opened at the daily limit in the early trading on the 16th, and then opened at the daily limit, with the increase falling to about 7.6%; the main contract for asphalt and fuel also rose collectively.
As a safe-haven asset, the yen exchange rate against the US dollar rose sharply.
According to CNBC, these oil facilities attacked by Saudi Arabia will have to be repaired for more than several weeks before production capacity can be restored. The reduction in oil supply will have a huge impact on domestic oil prices in the United States.
For this reason, Trump said that it has authorized to use the "ancestral" oil reserves of the United States to curb the rising momentum of domestic oil prices in the United States.
Important Saudi oil fields were attacked
Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said on the 15th that two facilities of Saudi Arabia's National Petroleum Corporation (American Petroleum Corporation) were attacked by drones a few days ago, causing Saudi crude oil supply to be reduced by 5.7 million barrels per day, accounts for about 50% of Saudi Arabia's daily oil production.
Abdul Aziz issued a statement through the Saudi news agency saying that the drone attacks caused temporary interruption of oil production at Aramco's Bugeg plant and Hurais oil field, and the reduction in oil production will be compensated to customers through Saudi Arabia's existing oil reserves.
Arab TV station video screenshot
According to CNBC, Amei Petroleum said that the work of resuming production is currently "in progress" and will announce the latest progress as soon as possible.
compiled by Bloomberg shows that the oil market fluctuations caused by the attack were the largest ever , exceeding the losses in the 199html oil supply during the August 80 period of Kuwait and Iraq . According to data from the U.S. Department of Energy, Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts this time also exceeded the losses in oil production during the 1979 domestic turmoil.
Iranian Foreign Minister denied Iran's participation in the attack
According to Xinhua News Agency , US Secretary of State Pompeo posted on his Twitter account on the 414th, accusing Iran of instigating an attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif posted on his social media account on the 15th, denied Pompeo's statement that Iran had participated in the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. Zarif posted on his personal Twitter account that day, saying: "After the failure of extreme pressure, the US Secretary of State is turning to extreme and directly (confronting Iran)."
Sky TV video screenshot
Zarif said that the United States and its "agents" were hit in Yemen , and they always imagine that the advantages of weapons and equipment can ultimately bring military victory. Zarif said accusing Iran of not ending the "disaster".
Yemen's Houthi Armed Forces spokesman Yehaiya Saria said on the 14th that the Houthi armed forces dispatched 10 drones to launch an attack on Aramco Oil's facilities in Bugege and Hureis on the same day, and said that the attack was a retaliation against Saudi Arabia's "aggression and economic blockade against Yemen" and will continue to expand the scope of the attack on Saudi Arabia in the future.
The United States may use strategic oil reserves
According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on Twitter on 15th that in order to deal with the possible impact of the attack on Saudi oil facilities on oil prices, has authorized to release oil from the strategic oil reserves "when necessary" to ensure sufficient market supply.
Trump said the release volume remains to be determined. According to previous media reports, the United States' strategic oil reserves are about 630 million barrels.
Trump also said that he has notified relevant agencies to speed up the approval of oil pipeline approval procedures in Texas and other relevant states.
Image source: Oriental Satellite TV Video Screenshot
16 On the morning of 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said at the press conference that since the beginning of this year, the momentum of international economic growth has been weakening, international energy prices fell that month, and OPEC has also declined month-on-month, and the impact of Saudi Arabia on the world remains to be seen.
International Energy Agency previously stated that it is closely following the Saudi situation in . Currently, the global oil market has sufficient oil supply reserves. The International Energy Agency statement said it was in contact with Saudi Arabia's major oil client countries, but the statement did not mention the proposal to issue reserve oil stocks.
Since 1991, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production has been stable at around 10 million barrels, accounting for 1/3 of the total output of OPEC, accounting for 10% of global crude oil production. Therefore, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in stabilizing oil prices in the OPEC organization.
Can oil prices continue to rise in the future?
Cinda Securities Oil Development Industry Team Report believes that the impact of
geopolitical emergencies on oil prices lies in the "sustainability". At present, the actual impact of the accident has not been clarified, and the recovery time ranges from 2 days to several weeks. This incident reflects Saudi Arabia's loopholes in the safety protection of oil field facilities. We believe that oil prices will rise and fall back to in the short term.
Regarding the long-term trend of oil prices, many brokerages such as Everbright Securities believe that this incident is beneficial to short-term oil prices, but in the long run, geopolitical uncertainty has increased.
Eurasia Group (Eurasia) said in its latest research report that the attack has caused the market to start reevaluating whether it should increase geopolitical risk premium to oil prices . If production capacity recovers in the short term, international oil prices are expected to rise by US$5 per barrel at the opening, or about 10%. If Saudi energy facilities are hit harder than expected, international oil prices will rise by 15%-20%, and is equivalent to $10 per barrel of space .
Image source: Photo Network (without pictures and text)
However, some analysts pointed out negative factors for future oil prices:
First, Saudi Arabia's strategy of reducing production, increasing prices and increasing income "no longer works."
This round of production cuts led by Saudi Arabia since January 2019 has not received cooperation from other countries. Saudi Arabia can only reduce production excessively in order to achieve the effect of boosting oil prices, but this strategy will no longer work in 2019. According to EIA's estimates, Saudi Arabia's crude oil export revenue in 2019 is estimated to be about US$202 billion, which will drop 15% from 2018. may shake Saudi Arabia's determination to continue to reduce production , and Saudi Arabia will do everything possible to resume production as soon as possible.
Second, the growth rate of crude oil production has accelerated after the US oil pipeline is put into production. In August 2019, the total U.S. crude oil production exceeded 12.5 million barrels per day, setting a record high, while the increase mainly comes from shale oil in 48 local U.S. states.
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