text/Liu Qingbin
Strange attack
Who did it?
First look at the specific process.
According to Japanese media reports, tankers operated by Japanese shipping company Guohua Industry (Tokyo) and tankers of Taiwan oil giant Taiwan CNPC were attacked near Iranian sea area Strait of Hormuz on the morning of the 13th. The two companies released the above news.
This incident happened during the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Iran, and the Japanese government stepped up confirmation.
Not sure who the attacker was, and the Iranian government denied participating in the matter.
Abe, who was in Iran at the time, immediately issued instructions to ensure that information collection and crew safety are foolproof. Abe's close friend, the economic industry, Hiroseki, said that "there is no problem with Japan's energy supply at this stage."
Guohua Industry revealed that at the time of the incident, the company's airline's tanker "KOKUKA COURAGEOUS" was attacked by shells from the rear. The outer panel of the hull was similar to the shell breaking out. The engine room caught fire, but was extinguished by the crew.
crew members are 21 Filipinos who escaped safely through lifeboats and have gone to UAE . The tanker was leased by the company's Panama-based subsidiary and loaded about 25,000 tons of methanol in Saudi Arabia, while on its way to Singapore.
Taiwan PetroChina said the company's tanker loaded 75,000 tons of naphtha and was on its way from the UAE to Kaohsiung, Taiwan. All 23 crew members of Taiwan CNPC were safe.
According to Iran's state-owned Iranian news agency, two tankers in the Gulf of Oman on the morning of the 13th, and 44 crew members of the two ships were rescued.
The Strait of Hormuz, surrounded by oil-producing countries, is the main artery of energy supply. Previously, the tension in the Middle East of escalated, and there were also warnings of oil tankers attacks and blockades. When the
incident occurred, Abe was visiting Iran to mediate U.S.-Iran relations. However, it is obvious that Abe and Foreign Minister Kono lacked the complications in the Middle East before leaving.
So, who did it?
Is it possible for the United States to "kill thieves to catch thieves"?
As the saying goes, we must first see who will make the most profit from this matter! In the comments of Kyodo News, Japan mentioned the United States, Iran, , Saudi Arabia, etc. Needless to say, this "wait" is , Israel.
Before leaving, Abe spoke specifically with Trump and undoubtedly went to Iran with Trump's oral message. So, will be a Japanese tanker attacked by the United States? first check out the performance of the United States.
Secretary of State Pompeo held a press conference at the State Council on 513, condemning "Iran is responsible for this." He said that the attack occurred during a visit to Tehran 5 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, saying it was a "slap in the face of Japan." Indeed, Japan currently does not have the "right to war" and it is difficult to take the "title for tooth, eye for eye" measures, so "it's useless to fight!"
Pompeo quickly judged that "Iran is responsible for the attack"
After Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and launched extreme restrictions on Iran, Iran once claimed that if he really couldn't survive, he would blockade Hormuz sea heroes, causing crude oil transportation in the Middle East to be half interrupted, so many speculations pointed the finger at Iran. The report even quoted American officials as saying, "The photos and videos in the hands of the United States now show that an Iranian ship was close to a Japanese cargo ship. It also launched a missile at a US drone several hours before the tanker was attacked, but it fell into the sea!" If this is true, it will be a solid news once it is announced.
A few days ago in the Red Sea, it is said that Yemen Shiite armed Houthi shot down American drones with Iran-made missiles. However, when the attack just happened, the Iranian foreign minister immediately denied that Iran had any involvement in the matter, and the Iranian government also denied on the 13th that it was related to the attack.
Pompeo concludes so quickly that Iran is involved, is there conclusive evidence or is there any other purpose?
How much profitable is the United States or Trump? If we want to provoke the Third Gulf War, these evidences are enough to allow the United States to block the strait and even use Japan to use the new security explanation, so that the United States and Japan can launch an attack on Iran.
The problem is, can the United States and Japan fight, afford, and beat Iran like this? ?
Videos of former US President Carter 's speeches have spread on the Internet these days. In the video, Carter said that he and Trump were on the phone to discuss issues such as China and the trade war. He clearly told the public that the reason why the United States was overtaken by China in certain places was because China carried out construction and spent money on the people, but the United States spent trillions of dollars on wars, especially the two generations of Presidents Bush, who fought two Gulf Wars, really made the United States poor. Indeed, military experts also say that since the collapse of the Internet bubble, the United States has actually been in a "military bubble".
Former US President Carter: Two Gulf Wars beat the United States poor
Trump's series of rhetoric and actions against North Korea also prove that the United States can use anything except military options, but military means cannot be placed on the table of decision makers.
Similarly, in the face of Iran, whose population resources and geographical location exceed that of North Korea, can the United States put military means on Trump’s table? I deeply doubt it.
Trump's "America No. 1" also shows that he does not become a world policeman, but he will verbally and increase tariffs.
is it done by the United States' " white gloves "?
So, will some American forces and their white gloves "slap Japan in the face"? I don't rule out this possibility. A closer look at the history of bilateral relations between Japan and Iran, it is not difficult to find that Iran is a symbol of Japan's "independent diplomacy".
As early in the post-war period, Japan was in a state of disrepair, and there was no food and oil shortage. Oil, especially crude oil with high purity, is in the hands of the so-called "Seven Petroleum Sisters" (the seven major oil companies). As a defeated country, Japan certainly cannot join, so the oil that Japan can get is not very purity. Of course, the Japanese industry also became a blessing in disguise. The developed car engines surpassed the United States, Germany, Britain and France, so Japanese cars are often driven by marginal desert areas, because the engines of Japanese cars are more adaptable to inferior oil.
quit gossip.
The symbol of Japan's independence oil diplomacy is that Japan's founder Irimitsu Yoshimoto, Sazo Irimitsu, alone explored Iranian oil fields, broke the blockade of the nationalization of Iranian oil by the "Seven Sisters" at that time, and brought Iranian oil to Japan. Later, Iran's Pahlavi visited Japan, and the Japanese Prime Minister at that time was Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi. In a word, Abe's best-selling book "The Man Called Pirate" by Naoki Hirota is based on the prototype of Iriki Mitsusa and is sold well in Japan.
Therefore, this time Abe's state visit to Iran was at a time when the United States and Iran were at odds. It was the first visit of the current Prime Minister in 40 years. It was Abe's second official visit since accompanying foreign minister's father, Shintaro Abe and Iranian visit. It was also regarded by some people as a new benchmark for "Japanese independent diplomacy". Some foreign ministers even privately defined as "the coordinator of US frustrated diplomacy, the buffer against fierce diplomacy of major powers, and the beneficiary of world hot diplomacy."
Abe meets with Iranian President Rouhani
But I have to say that ideals are full, but reality is too cruel. The flames of the two tankers should be able to wake up some arrogant people and pretend to be sleeping. Is it the United States, Saudi Arabia or Israel? The possibility of the United States is not lacking, but it is too small. Once it is exposed, I think Japan and the United States are in danger. Of course, it is not the first time that Trump plays Mad Man, and his men are really not short of Mad Man, such as the long-bearded Mad Man who made Trump walk away from Hanoi. It is said that Trump does not like people to wear beards, and he doesn't know how many days they can endure each other.
Before Abe's trip, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that some countries do not welcome this state visit.There is no doubt that Israel is the first, and Saudi Arabia is the second. These two countries are completely unacceptable to Iran's nuclear possession and strength, and it is even possible that "Wu and Yue" will work together to eliminate it.
Some scholars studying the Middle East say that Abe "when a microphone is a waste of money, and a mediator is lacking authority!" My first impression after hearing this was that he was too harsh or even mean. The subsequent attack on the tanker tells us that the complexity of the Middle East and the "pattern of Abe's diplomacy has been broken." You should know that there was a "Japanese nightmare" during the First Gulf War - spending more than 20 billion US dollars but not thanked by Kuwait .
Let the "bullet" fly for a while
Sure enough, Abe severely condemned the attack after he got home.
Related to the speech of US Secretary of State Pompeo, who concluded that Iran participated in the attack on the Strait of Hormuz tanker, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide did not clearly state at the press conference on the 14th whether Japan was in line with it, and only said that he "did not want to speak with predictions" and drew a clear line with the US position.
Suga Yoshihide's opinion on the attack on the tanker at the press conference only stated that "information is still being collected." A senior official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned the incident and told the media that "only countries with considerable degrees of knowledge, technology and capabilities can do this." Japanese media asked "Whether the United States can be considered to be involved", but the senior official did not answer.
Foreign Minister Kono Taro html When asked how he viewed the statement of "Iran's participation", he did not answer positively, saying that "while exchanging information with relevant countries, including the United States, I hope to figure out what actually happened."
The US military released a video claiming it was done by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was directly linked to the Iranian leadership. Kono also did not comment on its credibility.
US military released video of drone shooting, claiming that the video showed an Iranian ship removing an unexploded mine from the attacked Japanese tanker
visible, and Japan and the US have kept a distance. Japanese government sources said, "At this stage, there is no conclusive evidence about who and why they did this."
Who else? Saudi Arabia or Israel? Are they really a hardliner within Iran?
For this reason, the UN UN Security Council held a special meeting to discuss. After the meeting, Otephibi, the permanent representative of Kuwait, the presidential country, said that "all member states condemned the incident" but did not talk about whether Iran was involved.
Iran’s deputy representative to the United Nations Kabib expressed his “strong denial (participation)” to media in various countries.
. A senior U.S. government official told Reuters that there may be attacks in the future and is negotiating with allies to respond.
Pompeo said at a press conference on the 13th that based on the analysis of intelligence agencies and the types of weapons used in the attack, he believed that Iran was involved. He said that "agent organizations operating in the region do not have such high-precision operational skills and resources", and believed that it was not done by Yemen's pro-Iranian organizations, but with national participation.
US Department of Defense officials also told CNN TV and others that duds were placed on one of the attacked tankers. It is reported that the bombs used in May are likely to be of the same type as the bombs used by four ships including Saudi Arabian tankers in the coastal areas of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and other anti-U.S. hardliners have warned many times that they will impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the main artery of crude oil transportation.
At this point, I remember a story about the scorpion and the turtle of Hormuz.
There is a scorpion that is about to cross the sea in the Strait of Hormuz. I happened to see a turtle on the shore and said, "Brother Turtle, can you carry me across the sea?"
The turtle said, "Funny! How can I carry you? You are a scorpion, what if you stung me? Then I will die!"
After hearing this, the scorpion became angry. Scorpion said, "Do you understand logic? We are tied together. You carry me on your back and I stung you to death. Wouldn't I drown you too?"
The turtle thought that this logic made sense, so he let the scorpion come up.
As a result, just halfway through the swim, the scorpion still couldn't help but stung the turtle.
Before death, the turtle asked sadly and angrily: "Where is your logic?! I'm really blind!"
Scorpion said with tears in his eyes, "I'm sorry, at that moment, the logic was correct, but we are in Hormuz!"
Iran's attitude towards Japan is also very complicated. Even after Iran and the United States sever their diplomatic ties, Japan maintained friendly relations with Iran. However, after the emergence of the Iran nuclear issue, especially after the exchange between Iran and North Korea began to be shared, Japan started from its tough diplomacy to North Korea and the position of the only nuclear-destructed country, and its attitude towards Iran is becoming increasingly strict, and it follows the United States.
On January 3, 2006, Iran announced that it had resumed the suspension of nuclear fuel research work for more than two years. On the 10th, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, it removed the seal on the nuclear fuel research facility and officially resumed nuclear fuel research activities. This move aroused a strong reaction from the international community.
On March 28 that year, the Security Council passed a presidential statement requiring Iran to suspend all nuclear activities within 30 days.
On April 11, 2006, Iran announced that it had successfully produced low-purity concentrated uranium with a purity of 3.5%, becoming one of the international "National Top 8" (Permanent Members of the United Nations, India-Pakistan, and Iran).
In the same year, Abe's first cabinet was established, and a Japanese company gave up its rights to the Iranian Azad Glycoal Field. Later, Japan's investment and interests in Iran became less and less, but Germany's investment in Iran was increasing, so the Iranian nuclear talks became the Five Constant and Germany.
Japanese politics before Abe's second cabinet was also a drifting stage and it is difficult to play a role externally. After Abe's second cabinet began, with Abe's "globe diplomacy", Iran also entered Abe's vision.
This time, there is no doubt that both sides have been brewing for a long time. Just before Abe came, the Iranian foreign minister just visited Japan last month, and Trump's visit to Japan was just right. Although there are many channels for communication between the United States and Iran, there is only one channel for relationships like Abe and Trump. Trump can ask Abe for a recommendation letter for the Nobel Peace Prize, and Abe has really written a beautiful recommendation letter, which is useful or not.
Abe's visit to Iran is the biggest highlight of the talks with Iran's supreme leader Khamenei. Khamenei was unable to go abroad, and Abe, who had a soft figure and was just stuck in time, arrived in Iran and successfully held talks with Khamenei.
Abe held talks with Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei
Abe stressed to the media about the situation in the Middle East, “The road to (easing tension) is accompanied by difficulties, but I hope to continue to work hard in the future.” Regarding the talks with Khamenei, Abe said that he "sees a belief in peace, which is a great progress in ensuring peace and stability in the region" and gave a positive evaluation.
Japanese media reported that Khamenei mentioned in his statement after the talks that Abe introduced the United States' intention to hold a frank dialogue, saying that "it is impossible to believe the US's speech", which is actually a rejection of absolute words.
In response to Trump's statement that he did not ask Iran to change his system, Khamenei retorted in his statement that it was "a lie" and said that "Trump is not the object of exchange of messages and will not respond."
However, Khamenei said in the talks that "do not manufacture, do not own, or use nuclear weapons. There is no such intention." He also expressed his determination to adhere to the 2015 agreement. It can be seen that Khamenei does not trust Trump, but still expresses kindness to Japan. This should be the biggest gift Abe has received, if no tanker was attacked.
Trump also fired back, claiming that the attack should be held responsible for Iran. Compared with Trump, there are too many people who have beards around Khamenei, especially the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which will be declared a terrorist organization by the United States, and people who are dissatisfied with the 2015 agreement, as well as those who have no intersection with Japan. These people are also likely to cause such incidents.
Compared with Saudi Arabia, Iran's hardliners have been practicing for many years, and it is really possible to play the edge. Israel is the one who can compete with Iran's hard-line players.
. Israel still does not claim to be nuclear, but no one doubts its ability.
Of course, accidental injury and conspiracy are not ruled out. For example, Iran or other white glove warheads were originally aimed at American drones or other targets, but they hit the tanker by chance, but they were still two.
is becoming more and more like the Japanese movie " Rashomon ".
Let the "bullets" fly among the boats in the bay for a while.
