According to an analysis article published by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post on December 19, 2020, citing the views of Japanese and Taiwanese experts, the Dongsha Islands are very important strategically and have the strategic attributes of becoming a hot spot for conflict in the South China Sea.
[Dongsha Islands are an important strategic location and portal]
Dongsha Islands are the northernmost group of islands in South China Sea . They are mainly composed of a small island (Dongsha Island), an atoll (Dongsha Reef) and two reefs (Nanweitan and Beiweitan). They are 445 kilometers away from Kaohsiung City, a port city in southern Taiwan, China, and only more than 300 kilometers away from mainland China. Currently, the archipelago is actually under the jurisdiction of Taiwan, China.
article pointed out that in May this year, Kyodo News reported that the People's Liberation Army plans to hold a large-scale training exercise on Hainan Island in southern China in August, including a training exercise to simulate the capture of the Dongsha Islands.
Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, a professor at Tokyo International Studies University in Japan, said in an interview with the journal Diplomat in December that he believes that the People's Liberation Army is unlikely to land and occupy Taiwan, but the mainland can choose other means, such as further pressure on the Dongsha Islands or directly occupying the Dongsha Islands. Kosugasawara claimed: "In the process of seizing the Dongsha Islands, the mainland can kill two birds with one stone. For example, it can further consolidate its leadership. Therefore, the Dongsha Islands is a potential outbreak point of military conflict, which now needs to be highly valued by the United States, Japan and other countries." Kosugasawara also pointed out: "Attacking Taiwan will definitely cause strong protests from the United States, Japan and other countries, but the response to the mainland's capture of the Dongsha Islands may be different."
[Taiwan Marine Corps conducts practical training]
[Taiwan Marine Corps conducts practical training]
The article pointed out that since August this year, after receiving a report of the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducting training exercises, the Taiwan military has stationed a Marine Corps company at the outpost of the Dongsha Islands to further strengthen the garrison. Taiwan has also deployed a variety of weapons on the island, including air defense missiles, anti-ship missiles, , cannons and other cannons.
article said that it is not clear whether the PLA has actually held a beach landing exercise that simulates seizing the Dongsha Islands. However, since mid-August, the People's Liberation Army has held many practical military exercises in Yellow Sea , South China Sea, East China Sea and Bohai Bay to strengthen military deterrence against Taiwan. In addition, the PLA has dispatched fighter jets to Taiwan's so-called southwestern air defense identification zone , and went to Bashi Channel and the South China Sea for air combat training and reconnaissance operations, which has triggered speculation from the outside world that Taiwan's outposts may be suddenly attacked by the PLA. As cross-strait relations are becoming increasingly tense, Taiwan has also released a video of the military "resisting the mainland's attacks."
Tankang University Professor of International Relations and Strategy Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan said that the Dongsha Islands are very important to both Taiwan and the mainland. He said: "The Dongsha Islands are the northernmost island in the South China Sea, located between Taiwan Strait , Bashi Strait and the South China Sea. The strategic position is very important. It is the gateway for the US military to enter the South China Sea and the People's Liberation Army to enter the Philippine Sea."
[The Chinese People's Liberation Army holds landing combat exercises in the South China Sea]
The article stated that the Dongsha Islands have been actually controlled by Taiwan, China since the 1950s, and oil tankers from East Asian countries often pass through, and are the key to the Chinese mainland ships traveling to and from the Pacific Ocean. "
Huang Jiancheng also claimed: "The military threat of the People's Liberation Army's attempt to seize the Dongsha Islands has always existed, and the limited firepower of the Taiwan Marine Corps and the Coast Guard has made Taiwan very vulnerable. Once the territory is lost, Taiwan leaders or politicians will face tremendous pressure, such as trying to regain territory from mainland China.”
It is worth noting that at the press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council on October 28 this year, a Taiwanese media reporter asked, "The People's Liberation Army has recently conducted exercises in Fujian and Guangdong, and then the Lirong Aircraft chartered flight repatriation incident occurred, connecting these clues. Could you ask the spokesperson, does the People's Liberation Army plan to take down Dongsha Island?
In response, Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said, "You mentioned many clues, but the inferences made are a hypothetical question. I may not answer, but I am willing to reiterate our basic position." We have the determination and ability to defeat all provocative actions of "Taiwan independence", resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, safeguard the overall interests of the Chinese nation and the fundamental interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait."
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