This year, the capital circle has rarely discussed GDP, for two reasons: First, no matter where in the world, there are unhappy things, and no matter what, the risks brought by this war are spillovers; second, both countries and financial institutions in the economic field are dealing with the impact of the hegemony of the United States - the US dollar rate hike .
, but there are still some things that come out. A while ago, it was really popular to say that India surpassed the UK to become the fifth in the world. Recently, India has imagined becoming the third in 2030, and that is the only one with China and the United States.
Episode 0: Among the top 10 global GDP, only China and India are stronger. Some developing countries such as Russia, Brazil can only come in occasionally to join in and join in the fun.
Most people don’t understand or don’t know much about GDP. They know in their hearts that this is very important. Who is ahead is awesome. The economic boss also mentioned GDP first.
Today, China's figure is 17.7 trillion US dollars (2021). From the perspective of echelon and country, it is the same as the United States, far ahead of Japan, which ranks third in terms of US$4.94 trillion.
So, we began to discuss the future world number one. This topic was quite popular last year and was roughly divided into three predictions: the first one is as early as 2027, the second one is as high as 2030, and the third one is as late as 2035.
Today we will discuss 2035. Knocking is also in line with our first goal in the next century. According to the official statement, GDP by 2035 will double compared with 2020.
data shows that in 2020, China's GDP is 14.69 trillion US dollars, so what you want in 2035 is 29.38 trillion US dollars. Starting from 2022, our average annual growth rate must be above 4% to achieve the goal.
However, we are developing, and the United States is also developing. At the same time, if the average annual growth of the United States is calculated at 2%, by 2035, China's GDP will be 30.65 trillion US dollars and the United States will be 30.35 trillion US dollars, and China will become the world's largest economy .
It should be pointed out that the United States is a developed country, and its GDP volume is already large enough. The value-added space of the three major industries is compressed, while China is still developing. Therefore, it is much easier for us to achieve the 4% GDP growth target in the first 14 years than the 2% of the United States.
For our Chinese people, the closer one is per capita GDP, but it is a bit difficult to compare with the United States. The United States has been $63,900 (2021), and we are $12,550. Even if the United States does not increase this gap, we will have a 7% growth rate for 25 years before we can reach the mountain.
Therefore, China's goal is to double it in 2035, so it will change to 21,008 based on US$10,504 (2020). According to
, we can reach the level of 21,464 in 2032 with an average annual growth rate of 5%, achieving the goal of doubling.
In fact, per capita GDP growth is easier than total GDP, for the following reasons:
From a historical perspective, my country's GDP growth rate is generally faster than per capita GDP growth rate, the main reason is that the economic growth is much higher than the population growth rate.
For example, in 2006, China's population increased by 7.3 million from 2005, and compared with GDP of 460 billion US dollars during the same period, which means that the average value of each person was 63,000 US dollars. In fact, in 2006, my country's per capita GDP was only nearly 2,100 US dollars, which shows how terrifying my country's economic growth in the past.
Note: Starting this year, my country's population is likely to enter negative growth. According to the United Nations forecast, it will remain at around 1.4 billion by 2035, which means that the number of people will no longer increase in the future, so the GDP growth rate will gradually be exceeded by per capita GDP. The previous calculation of
is to achieve the goal of per capita GDP in 2032, although the beginning of negative population growth indicates that this goal may be achieved earlier.
However, under negative population growth, the pressure on GDP growth will increase, such as public utility expenditure and rising labor costs are all constraints. But no matter what, with my country's current economic situation, no matter which goal is achieved, it is very clear.
Finally, I said something that a friend is most interested in. I just mentioned GDP and per capita GDP. So how are we ordinary people’s lives? I have also made calculations for you here.
is calculated based on the most appropriate data - per capita disposable income . It was 35,100 yuan in 2021. Our GDP has slowed down in the past few years, but this indicator does not exist and it still maintains a growth level of around 8%.
Therefore, by 2035, China's per capita disposable income will exceed 100,000 yuan, which means that you can actually spend 100,000 yuan a year, that is, excluding the taxes you pay, you will have to have a loan, etc. You will have this money in your hand, so I am still looking forward to it.
