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On September 29, the Yalong River Lianghekou Hydropower Station, the highest altitude of my country, welcomed the first batch of two single-million-kilowatt hydropower station, to be put into production and generate electricity
◆Affected by the power shortage of , there have been concentrated power restrictions and production restrictions in many places across the country. The restricted industries have also spread from the previous four high-energy consumption industries of steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials to other industries such as textiles, photovoltaics, shipbuilding, etc.
◆ Grasp the rhythm of regulation and control actions and avoid the movement-style "energy saving and carbon reduction" behavior beyond the development stage
◆ "Carbon reduction" urgently needs technological innovation and institutional innovation
◆Priority to ensure people's livelihood energy use
◆ Grasp the rhythm of regulation and control actions and avoid the sports-style "energy saving and carbon reduction" behavior beyond the development stage
◆ "Carbon reduction" urgently needs technological innovation and institutional innovation
◆Priority to ensure people's livelihood energy use
◆ Grasp the rhythm of regulation and control actions and avoid the sports-style "energy saving and carbon reduction" behavior beyond the development stage
◆ "Carbon reduction" urgently needs technological innovation and institutional innovation
◆Priority to ensure people's livelihood energy use
◆ Grasp the rhythm of regulation and control actions and avoid the sports-style "energy saving and carbon reduction" behavior beyond the development stage
◆ "Carbon reduction" urgently needs technological innovation and institutional innovation
◆Priority to ensure people's livelihood energy use
◆ In the future, will the power policy still adhere to the "three unchanged"
multiple measures to alleviate power tension
article? |? Lu Xiaoming? Li Ke
Recently, there have been centralized power restrictions and production restrictions in many places across the country, and even power outages have occurred. The restricted industries have also spread from the previous four major high-energy consumption industries to other industries such as textiles. There are three main reasons for the power shortage:
The power shortage has caused some industries to reduce production significantly, dragging down industrial growth and economic growth, some export orders are delayed, production cuts of related products push up prices, and the pressure on the rise of PPI is increasing. In the future, while giving priority to ensuring energy consumption for people's livelihood, the energy consumption restrictions in high-energy-consuming industries will remain.
Power limit and production restrictions have caused multiple impacts
This power shortage is more than before. People in the power industry reported that the power supply continues to be tight this year, and it is different from previous years. After the peak of electricity consumption this summer, power tensions have not eased, but have intensified. Affected by the power shortage, there have been concentrated power and production restrictions in many places across the country. The restricted industries have also spread from the four major high-energy consumption industries of steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials to other industries such as textiles, photovoltaics, shipbuilding, etc. Some industrial parks have even experienced "one-size-fits-all" power restrictions.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the electricity consumption of the whole society from January to August this year increased by year-on-year, and the growth rate in September dropped sharply to 4.9%, among which the electricity consumption of the secondary industry dropped from 13.8% from January to August to 6% in September.
power shortage has a significant impact on industrial production. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the average growth rate of industrial added value above the designated size in January to August was 6.6%, higher than the level in 2015 to 2019 before the epidemic, and fell to 5.0% in September, which is lower than the growth rate in 2019.
The output growth rate of some key power-limiting industries has declined sharply recently. For example, crude steel production increased by 11.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and turned to a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, 13.2% and 21.2% from July to September; cement production increased by 14.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and decreased by 6.5%, 5.2% and 13% year-on-year from July to September; non-ferrous metals production increased by 11% in the first half of the year, and slowed to 7.1%, 0.4% and -1.6% from July to September.
Some downstream manufacturing companies reported that due to power restrictions, export orders were postponed. Some industry insiders reported that in late September, the loom operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang market had dropped to about 45%.
Production cuts push up product prices and increase inflationary pressure. As of mid-October, the prices of 50 important means of production monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics rose by 3.84% over the same period last month and 70.3% over the same period last year; excluding 8 agricultural products, 42 industrial products rose by 4.4% on the month-on-month and 82.8% on the year-on-year. Among them, 12 of them hit new highs since statistics were recorded in 2013.
The rising prices of upstream raw materials will increase the production costs of midstream and downstream manufacturing industries. Xiong Yuan, chief analyst of Guosheng Macro, predicts that PPI may continue to rise in October and November, and the PPI readings will fall significantly in December. Not only that, the soaring prices of raw materials such as cement and steel under power and production restrictions will further suppress the operations of midstream and downstream industries. my country's industrial product ex-factory price index html rose 10.7% year-on-year in September, of which the price of means of production rose 14.2%, setting a new high since 1996.
Multi-factor resonance aggravates power tension
The demand for electricity for industrial production has increased significantly, which is an important reason for this round of power tension. Since the beginning of this year, my country's exports have grown beyond expectations, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 33% from January to September. Hongta Securities Chief economist Li Qilin said that vigorous exports promote the rapid recovery of domestic industrial production, which in turn promotes a surge in electricity consumption. Industrial electricity accounts for about 2/3 of my country's overall electricity consumption.
From January to September this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in my country increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with an average of 6.4% in two years.During the same period, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.9%, with an average of 6.6% in two years, higher than most years in the past decade; among them, industrial electricity consumption increased by 10.7%, with an average of 5.7% in two years, which is basically the same as the growth rate of industrial added value . GF Securities senior macro analyst Wang Dan pointed out that industries with leading electricity consumption growth rate include textiles, computers, general equipment, electrical machinery, etc., with growth rates above 20%. These industries are export-oriented industries.
In addition, the rapid rise in coal shortage of coal prices has also intensified the power tension. This year, electricity demand increased significantly, but it coincided with the "little year" of hydropower. From January to September, hydropower fell by 0.9% year-on-year, and the pressure on thermal power increased. Compared with thermal power generation, the year-on-year increase of 11.9% from January to September, the raw coal production increased by only 3.7% year-on-year during the same period, and coal imports also fell by 3.6%. The shortage of coal has led to a record high in coal prices. On October 19, the active thermal coal contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 1,649.6 yuan, soaring 84.3% from the end of August, quadrupled from the same period last year.
On October 21, workers continuously mined, transmitted, and lifted raw coal to the ground in the Qianyingzi Coal Mine in Suzhou City, Anhui Province, and then entered the warehouse through screening and other steps. Photo by Liu Junxi. Xiongyuan believes that the price of electric coal continues to rise, especially after September, the rise is accelerated, the losses of thermal power companies continue to increase, and the willingness to generate electricity is weakened. Although thermal power plants mainly rely on annual contracts for coal supply in the long-term contract, and the price of long-term contract contracts is far lower than the market price, thermal power has grown more than expected this year, and the annual contract is insufficient, and the price difference between the long-term contract prices and the market price is huge, resulting in poor implementation of long-term contract contracts.
htmlOn August 12, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of the completion of energy consumption dual control targets in various regions in the first half of 2021", and evaluated the completion of the "dual control energy consumption dual control" targets in various regions in the first half of 2021. The results show that energy consumption in many places has not decreased but increased, and the total energy consumption intensity and energy consumption5 have been given first-level warnings by the National Development and Reform Commission.Some analysts believe that compared with the "power shortage" in previous years, there is a prominent difference this time. In previous years, it was mostly due to the shortage of coal and passive supply and demand. Local governments actively solved the power shortage problem in order to protect economic growth. However, this year, the pressure of achieving dual control energy consumption in various places has increased sharply. As the end of the year approaches, some places even made up for the efforts to achieve GDP energy consumption targets, actively restrict power and even sports "carbon reduction".
insists on "establishing first and then breaking",
Corrects the movement of "carbon reduction"
Chairman of the International Society for Energy Transformation Shi Xunpeng believes that as a developing country , China still needs to adhere to the principle of development priority, and under the principle of development priority, it is necessary to make necessary adjustments to policy goals, implementation methods, etc. from top to bottom.
First, grasp the rhythm of regulation and control actions and avoid sports-style "energy-saving and carbon reduction" behavior beyond the development stage. The National Energy Commission meeting held on October 9 proposed to correct the "one-size-fits-all" power and production restrictions or sports-style "carbon reduction" in some places based on reality.
Former deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center , Liu Shijin, believes that to achieve the goal of "dual carbon" "the key is to replace traditional technologies with green technology, and to reduce carbon emissions, rather than reducing production capacity, not reducing growth rate, nor to artificially disrupt the normal supply and demand order without green technology."
Second, " carbon reduction " urgently needs technological innovation and institutional innovation. " carbon peak " does not mean that energy consumption peaks. Economic development requires corresponding growth in energy supply. Realizing "dual carbon" requires reducing carbon-based energy consumption and increasing the proportion of green energy. According to the promise of my country's Copenhagen Climate Conference, the proportion of coal consumption will be reduced to about 50% by 2030, not to reduce the total energy consumption.
Liu Shijin said that energy consumption can be high-carbon or low-carbon or even zero-carbon. The goal is to gradually reduce the carbon content by adjusting the energy structure and replacing high-carbon energy with low-carbon or zero-carbon energy while ensuring the supply of necessary energy. If the total energy quantity control is improper, it will restrict the due economic growth rate and will also not be in line with the original intention of development.
Liu Shijin suggested that two innovations should be promoted.First of all, technological innovation, large-scale systematic upgrades and updates of technology. Some existing green technologies are quite mature, such as the cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than that of traditional coal-fired power generation, and it is likely to drop significantly in the next few years. These green technologies create conditions for "carbon reduction" from subtraction to addition and multiplication. The second is institutional innovation, and we must promote carbon accounting and ecological accounting. "The premise of 'carbon reduction' is to settle the accounts clearly. This matter is very important and urgent. It is still a major shortcoming so far, but it has not attracted enough attention at present." Liu Shijin said.
Third, give priority to ensuring energy consumption for people’s livelihood. Northeast Securities Chief economist Fu Peng said that in the winter heating season is approaching, preventive measures for possible "coal and electricity" shortages that may occur at the end of the year should be launched as soon as possible, and priority should be given to ensuring the supply of coal and electricity to avoid heating problems due to insufficient supply. Electricity monitoring and orderly dispatching are also needed for industrial and commercial electricity use to ensure the safety of power grid operation and avoid emergency shutdown and power outages as much as possible.
In order to fully ensure the energy consumption of people's livelihood, on September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized in response to the issue of energy supply guarantee that it should adhere to the people-centered development philosophy and always make ensuring energy consumption of people's livelihood the top priority of supply guarantee work. Energy consumption of people's livelihood will be fully guaranteed in terms of resources, and energy consumption of people's livelihood will be kept stable strictly according to price policies. On October 12, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Further Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of the on-grid electricity price of coal-fired power generation" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), requiring that all localities should give priority to using low-priced power supplies to ensure the electricity consumption of residents and maintain the stability of the electricity prices of residents.
Deputy Chairman of the China Coal Transport and Sales Association said that when ensuring people's livelihood, we should pay attention to the winter is the peak period of coal demand every year, and the coal consumption of power plants is higher than the peak in summer. At present, the coal storage level in ports, coal mines and power plants is significantly lower, especially the demand for power plants to replenish inventory, and the pressure to meet peak winter this year is relatively high.
Feng Yu suggested that appropriately liberalizing coal production requires coordination from multiple departments to simplify and speed up the application process for coal mining enterprises to increase. Coal mines that have the potential to increase production and have made outstanding contributions to coal supply guarantee, provide policy support in terms of safety supervision, capacity increase, etc., to solve the worries of coal mines in ensuring supply guarantee.
Fourth, future power policies will still adhere to the "three unchanges". The "Notice" on October 12 emphasized that it is necessary to give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, better play the role of the government, ensure the safe and stable supply of electricity, promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, promote the construction of a new power system, and help achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality of .
Experts believe that the government is determined to achieve the goal of "dual control of energy consumption" this year. Last year, my country proposed the "dual carbon" goal, and dual energy consumption control is an important tool for the "dual carbon" work, and the policy flexibility is not great. On October 9, the National Energy Commission meeting particularly emphasized that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a requirement for my country's own transformation and upgrading of its economy, and it is necessary to scientifically and orderly promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.
Industry insiders believe that the regulatory intentions of the competent authorities are very obvious. It is expected that the power policy will still adhere to the "three unchanges", namely, the determination to implement the "dual control of energy consumption" policy will remain unchanged; restrictions on high-energy-consuming industries will not be relaxed; priority will be given to ensuring people's livelihood and energy use will not be relaxed.
will not relax the restrictions on high-energy-consuming industries, and the signal is very clear: On October 8, the State Council Executive Meeting pointed out that we must resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high" projects. The Notice on October 12 specifically stated that there is no limit on price increase in the market trading electricity prices of high-energy-consuming enterprises. On October 13, the National Development and Reform Commission introduced the relevant situation of energy supply guarantee this winter and next spring, and emphasized that we should resolutely curb the blind and unreasonable energy use of the "two highs" projects, implement power limits in an orderly manner, and resolutely curb the blind development of the "two highs" projects. In view of this, it is expected that the "two high" industries such as steel, building materials, and nonferrous metals will still face energy control measures in the future.
Source: Observation
