[Text/Observer Network Wang Hui, Liu Qian, Zhang Jingjuan Editor/Feng Xue] Without any guard or any concern, another British Prime Minister resigned.
Tras, the 56th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has a term of 45 days. He is by far the "shortest-lived" prime minister in British history.
's representative work "Mini Budget" caused a sharp fluctuation in the UK financial market, bringing a triple kill of "stock, bonds and foreign exchanges". With one's own efforts, the British stock and bond markets evaporated by at least US$500 billion in one and a half months.
Tras' resignation adds another "catch horse" plot to the ups and downs of British politics. Alan McGuinness, British Sky News editor who just became a father this year, tweeted and joked:
"My son has experienced 4 Chancellors of the Exchequer, 3 House Ministers, 2 Prime Ministers and 2 Monarchs in his life. My son is 4 months old this year."
It's really hard for the British people.
Their prime minister just apologized for his mistake in formulating economic policies a few days ago, but refused to resign. She claimed that she was "a fighter rather than a vain"...
Why was resigning so caught off guard?
"I have never seen anything like this before," Nick, chief political reporter of the BBC (BBC), couldn't help but sigh. This was really "lightning speed".
Yin Zhiguang, professor of the Department of International Politics, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, told Observer.com that there have been precedents in such matters. "A few days before Johnson resigned, he strongly stated that he could not resign. But like Tras, he resigned quickly after talking to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, a Conservative MP group in the Lower House of Parliament."
Yin Zhiguang believes that the main reason for the sudden resignation of Tras was the internal factors of the Conservative party. He explained:
After Brexit, the Conservative Party itself faced an ideological crisis, and the part within the party has become a lot of small pieces. Some support Brexit, some support staying in Europe, some support social welfare policies, and some support tax cuts. The result of complete division is the loss of consensus, which makes it difficult for the party to introduce a force that can reconcile the conflicts of interest in different factions. In the end, the Conservatives chose a relatively weak leader like Tras in the front office. In this way, the struggles of different forces behind them can be continued in a familiar way.
Therefore, Conservative leaders have many constraints in the government. In addition to balancing the forces of various factions, they also need to consider back-benchers who have not won seats in the cabinet. The "1922 Committee" represents this type of people. Once they start to "rebellion", the Conservative leader will not be able to sit still.
"From Tras' political experience, competitive process and ability shown, she came to power with the support of a certain force within the Conservative Party, and the political foundation within the Party is not stable." Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, said.
He believes that after the policy mistakes, it is reasonable for the Conservative Party to give up her from the perspective of maintaining her ruling status in . "Just like Tras gave up Kovolten in order to save his reputation."
On October 14th local time, after radical economic policies triggered financial turmoil and strong criticism, in order to maintain the position of Prime Minister, Tras announced the dismissal of his stubborn ally and Chancellor Kwoten.
On October 20th local time, Tras issued a resignation statement announcing his resignation as head of the British Conservative Party and the British Prime Minister . Source: Pengpai Image
next shot, who will take it?
British polling company YouGov released the latest report on October 18, showing that Tras's approval rating among the British people has dropped to 10%, and 55% of the British Conservative Party members surveyed hope that Tras will resign.
. Among the candidates suitable for taking over Trass, former Prime Minister Johnson received the highest support (32%), followed by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak (23%) and Defense Secretary Wallace (10%).
However, judging from the process of the next prime minister, it seems to have nothing to do with public opinion.
At present, the Conservative Party has started the nomination of the new leader and prime minister, and the nomination will be closed at 14:00 on October 24, BST.
To participate in the election, candidates need to be nominated by at least 100 Conservative MPs. This is far higher than the last campaign, when only 20 nominations were required. Since the Conservative Party currently has 357 MPs, only three candidates can be nominated.
If only one person reaches the threshold of 100 votes, he will become the next Conservative Party leader and then become the new prime minister without the need for the next stage of competition.
If there are 3 candidates, the candidate with the least votes will be eliminated directly. Conservative MPs will vote on the remaining two candidates between 18:30 and 20:30 on the day of the day, and the results will come out at 21:00 on the same day.
If no one exits after the indicative vote, all Conservatives will participate in the online vote to decide the winner. The two candidates are expected to participate in a television debate before the party members votes end, with the winner set to be produced on October 28.
Source: BBC
"For the Conservative Party, the ideal result is that only 1 candidate meets the requirements, so there is no need to vote, and it takes the least time," Yin Zhiguang said, it would be best if there was Theresa May when he came to power. Everyone else was eliminated, she was the only candidate, and then he naturally had to be the prime minister.
However, at present, theoretically speaking, everything is possible, and the voices of Johnson and Sunak seem to be higher.
Cui Hongjian believes that Sunak should be the most suitable candidate.
"One of the direct reasons that led to Tras' resignation was her mistakes in economic policies. Therefore, from the perspective of understanding of economic policies and ability to solve problems, Sunak is very suitable to replace Tras and solve the mess she left behind," Cui Hongjian explained, but from the perspective of political operations, Sunak also has many shortcomings that can be exploited by his opponents.
"Now, whether it is the Conservative Party or British politics, the biggest problem is: politicians who can better cater to and please the people seem to have a more market. Politicians like Sunak with technocratic backgrounds are not likable, and he himself has some so-called problems criticized by traditional British politics, such as his immigrant descendants' background, etc.."
Cui Hongjian believes that the next step is to see how the Conservative Party balances, and to see how to consider the Tory MPs can truly consider the interests of the Conservative Party or the British, rather than being influenced by political factions.
Yin Zhiguang also believes that the only option that seems to be more likely and conservative at present is Sunak. But he also stressed that for the Conservatives, the most important thing in the future is the general election.
At the moment, the Conservative Party’s approval rating is falling all the way.
According to the European version of the "Politician" News Network, the latest poll on October 20 showed that the Conservative Party's support rate among the British people fell to 21%, while the opposition Labor Party rose to 53%.
Therefore, for the next prime minister, he (she) "need to reverse the disappointment of the people, including Conservative Party members in the Conservative elite, as soon as possible, and repair the people's confidence in the Conservative Party. This successor may set his goal before ensuring that the Conservative Party can rule smoothly until the 2024 election, but judging from the successive setbacks of Johnson and Trass, it is very difficult to complete this task." Choi Hongjian analyzed.
Sunak at the campaign rally Source: Pengpai Image
The Conservative Party frequently "changes its coach", just like drinking poison to quench thirst
Since 2016, four Conservative Prime Ministers have resigned under pressure within the party, and none of them have completed their term of office. They are: Cameron , Theresa May, Johnson, and Trass.
In the process of constantly "changing coaches", although the Conservative Party has maintained its ruling position, its support rate in British society has continued to decline due to continuous policy mistakes, which seems to have become the norm.
Cui Hongjian believes that this time when deciding whether Tras is to stay or not, the Conservative Party is actually making a trade-off that takes the minority of rights: if Tras continues to stay, from the current point of view, the damage she brings to the Conservative Party is obviously greater than giving up on her.
"The Conservative Party has continuously shifted and shirked some political responsibilities through the way of changing the leader within the party. In the short term, it can help it continue to gain ruling status, but I think, in the long term, there is a little smell of drinking poison to quench thirst."
Cui Hongjian emphasized that if the Conservative Party has maintained this way of doing things, the British people will increasingly question the effectiveness of this current political system. This will not only bring more and more negative impacts to the Conservative Party, but also on British politics itself.
"Originally, Britain thought its political system was superior, but now even the British themselves are losing confidence, so the credibility of (British politics) abroad will no longer exist." Yin Zhiguang said.
left to right are: Cameron, Theresa May, Johnson, Trass
It is worth noting that after Tras resigned, the leader of the British opposition Labor Party, Starmer, demanded that the general election be held immediately "now".
However, both scholars believe that the possibility of a new election in the UK is unlikely.
"Under the current circumstances, if the procedure for early election is to be initiated, we still have to pass the parliament. If the Conservative Party can exchange the unity of the majority of MPs in the party by replacing Tras, then the offensive launched by Labour Party to try to advance election may be disintegrated." Cui Hongjian said.
The UK is Italianizing?
Just a few hours before Tras announced his resignation, the famous British weekly magazine "The Economist" drew an image of "( Ancient Rome ) Centurion Tras" with a fork on the cover of the latest issue. The title above the cover of
reads "Welcome to Britain (Britaly). The article compares three aspects: political instability, slow economic growth, and blind obedience to the bond market. It said that more than two years after the official Brexit, the United Kingdom is becoming more and more like Italy, which is the weakest link in the EU.
The latest cover image of the Economist
"In a sense, Italy has reached the forefront of Europe in politics, showing political instability, frequent government changes, and rapid rise in right-wing populist forces," Cui Hongjian said, however, the starting point and principles of the design of the British political system are still different from that of Italy.
"So far, the UK has basically maintained a party pattern with two parties taking turns to rule. Such a party pattern will avoid a fragmented party like Italy, which is as numerous as those in Italy."
However, "the situation in the UK may be more complicated," he pointed out that there are signs of factions and instability within the Conservative Party. This is a fragmented way within the party, such as the complex struggle between the faction that supports Tras and the multiple factions that oppose Trass.
"So, the party structure in the UK may seem to be more stable than that in Italy, but the changes that are taking place within it are more hidden and complex, and the damage to the implementation of political systems and policies may even be more serious." Cui Hongjian analyzed.
Yin Zhiguang said that this attitude of not forgetting to bring others back on his own self-deprecating attitude is very consistent with the taste of the British conservative cultural elite represented by the Economist.
He believes that saying that the British political "degenerate" has become Italy is still a bit of aversion to the important and turn big things into small things. In fact, the chaos that has emerged in British politics today reflects the deeper crisis facing the development of the parliamentary democratic system to this day.
"As a defeated country in World War II, Italy, under the supervision of allies, specially designed a political system with extremely dispersed power and a layer-by-layer checks and balances between the president-prime minister-parliamentary parties and opposition parties. The fundamental purpose is to prevent the reappearance of characters like Mussolini . For a long time, this institutional design has been regarded as an excellent case of preventing centralization of the parliamentary democratic republic system."
Yin Zhiguang said that today, Italy has been constantly showing a short-lived government, a ruling party of the revolving lantern, or various political parties across the country, "union today, confrontation tomorrow", but in the eyes of political analysts, these finally represent the "success" of parliamentary politics and republic system.
"And the farce created by the British Conservative Party is the result of fragmentation of interest units. Compared with Italy, the current situation in the UK reflects the deep crisis of parliamentary democratic politics in the new era."
"The chaos in Britain means the continuous decline of the soft and hard power of the entire West"
The current situation in the UK is facing the complex situation where the queen dies, the two prime ministers resign, and the calls for "independence" are getting higher and higher. What will the "Empire of the Sun" in the future?
In this regard, Cui Hongjian said that when he "Brexit", the Conservative Party wanted to help Britain establish a greater confidence, and Britain would continue to maintain its status as a world power, etc.
"But in contrast to these bold words, the British government is helpless in solving practical problems in the present. This is the most impressive scene presented by the British government."
"In the future, no matter who the British government is in power, it must start by solving practical problems. If you just blindly use "large goals" to fool the people without down-to-earth solving problems, it will only make the people more disappointed and disgusted." Cui Hongjian believes that in the context of Brexit contradictions and intensified internal and external challenges, the UK is in a stage of lost development direction, and political disorder and policy missteps will further exacerbate this state of confusion.
Queen Elizabeth II
The most unfortunate thing for the UK is that its impact on the world is getting smaller and smaller.
"British thinks it still has an influence on the world, such as soft power such as political system, language and culture," but Cui Hongjian believes that the recent political chaos in the UK just shows that what Britain can provide the world with more outdated ideas and negative experiences in the political field.
"If Britain's national strength shows a relatively long-term and continuous decline from now on, it will undoubtedly affect the entire West's dominance of the so-called order."
"We know that Britain once had a relatively large support and cooperation with the United States, including Europe, in terms of hard power and soft power. If the United Kingdom continues in a relatively confused and chaotic state, it actually means that the West, as a whole, has continued to decline in both soft and hard power," Cui Hongjian analyzed.
Yin Zhiguang believes that the future development of Britain is not particularly optimistic, and can only follow the path of 20 years after World War II , stick to the United States, and be a small follower of the United States in order to get a share of the global competition.
(Fang Jiyi also contributed to this article)
