British politics has once again ushered in an "amazing" day.
On October 20th local time, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Trass issued a resignation statement, announcing her resignation as head of the British Conservative Party, which means she voluntarily resigned as British Prime Minister. Tras, 47, has become the shortest-term prime minister in British history, and it has only 45 days since her official position on September 6. In a statement, Tras said that given the current economic and international situation, she was unable to fulfill the promises she had made during the Conservative Party's campaign. However, she will remain as prime minister and be elected as the new party. It is reported that the new prime minister candidate will be released next Friday, October 28, and may be born as early as next Monday.
However, analysts believe that no matter who the newly appointed prime minister is, it is difficult to stop this "restorm". After Tras turned around and left , 10 Downing Street, , what was left was an economic crisis that caused the UK to evaporate $500 billion out of thin air and a fragmented political party.
Professor of the School of International Relations of Sichuan University Li Hao also said in an interview with Red Star News that due to the superposition of international and domestic environmental factors, the various contradictions facing the UK now gather in the short term. No matter who the new prime minister is, it is very difficult to solve these problems.
↑On October 20th local time, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Tras issued a resignation statement
Tras's "mess" is not easy to deal with
Whoever takes office is the same
According to real-time data from British media, former Chancellor of the Finance Minister Sunak who had previously defeated Tras has 21 people supported it, temporarily leading former Prime Minister Johnson (19 people) and former Defense Secretary Modant (6 people).
However, the new prime minister's arrival does not mean that the crisis has been lifted. Some reports concluded that if the British politics were in chaos yesterday, the chaos in the future would continue to deepen. The crisis and challenges mentioned by Tras in her resignation speech did not disappear with her departure, and the new prime minister undoubtedly had to clean up the "mess" she left behind after she came to power.
Li Hao told Red Star News that after the new prime minister came to power, the most difficult problem is undoubtedly economic policy. According to previous reports, in just 45 days of administration, the British stock and bond market has severely shrunk, losing at least US$500 billion. The pound has also suffered the largest decline in 37 years, and inflation has continued to be high. Although he was ridiculed that "the term of office is not as long as the shelf life of lettuce", his "destructive power" is amazing.
It is reported that after Tras announced his resignation, the pound rose against the US dollar, and the cost of government borrowing also fell. An analyst said that despite the still many uncertainties, investors were "relieved" by the news. Tony Danke, head of the business lobby group CBI, said that the "political farce" in recent weeks has destroyed people, businesses, markets and global investors' confidence in the UK. "(the next prime minister) needs to come up with a credible medium-term fiscal plan as soon as possible, as well as a long-term economic growth plan."
However, Li Hao believes that the difficult problems facing the UK are not unique to a certain government, but the overall environment of the global economy and the small environment of the UK's domestic economy. He said that the British economy has faced more challenges in recent years. Coupled with the impact of the new crown epidemic, inflation pressure is greater, and the UK's own welfare policy has led to weak pressure.
↑As of September 28, Trass's takeover has caused the UK to lose $500 billion
"The UK now has many contradictions, and of course many are global contradictions. Whether it is the problems caused after Brexit, that is, the economic contradictions in Europe, or the global inflation problems caused by the epidemic, these have actually gathered on the UK in a short period of time." Li Hao said that, therefore, the British government is unlikely to reverse some major policies in the short term. Coupled with the UK's parliamentary cabinet system , it undoubtedly puts the government in a greater way to make major economic policy adjustments. On the one hand, it is mainly due to greater constraints by parliament, and on the other hand, there is obvious differences within the party.Therefore, no matter who the next British Prime Minister is, the problems he encountered after taking office are the same, that is, whether an economic plan that can be accepted by the current British social situation and whether political differences can be bridged.
British political turmoil "may last until the 2024 general election"?
Expert: This is the price that the Conservative Party needs to pay
Regarding the "chaos" of British politics, British political journalist Alan McGuinness posted a comment: "My son has experienced four Chancellors of the Exchequer, three House Secretary, two Prime Ministers (there will be a third soon) and two monarchs. He is four months old."
Some analysis also pointed out that for a political party trying to make the public believe that he is capable of leading the UK, three Prime Ministers in four months, endless internal strife, and an intensified cost-of-living crisis, this is undoubtedly the worst publicity advertisement. This is also the reason why Graham Brady, chairman of the British Conservative Party's 1922 committee, said that he would quickly elect a new prime minister within a week.
Brady said on the 20th that unlike the last two months of the campaign, the new prime minister will be elected next Friday. Conservative MPs will vote for 1-3 candidates next Monday, each requiring nominations of at least 100 Conservative MPs, followed by a voting election on Thursday. If only one candidate breaks out on Monday, he will automatically become the new Conservative leader and prime minister next Monday.
analysis pointed out that there is no doubt that the Conservative Party hopes to maintain continuity of governance with quick battles and decisions, and tries to prove to the public that the party is still capable of governing.
After Tras announced his resignation, the opposition Labor Party immediately demanded that the general election be held in advance. The party leader Kil Stamer said: "After the 12-year defeat of the Conservative Party, the British people should get better." Current polls show that Labor 's support rate has always been ahead of the Conservative Party by 20 to 30 percentage points. If the general election is held early, the Labor Party is expected to achieve an overwhelming victory.
↑Labor leader Kiel Stamer
However, there is no sign that the UK will hold a general election ahead of schedule. Li Hao told Red Star News that the rapid collapse of this cabinet and the resignation of the prime minister are more of differences within the Conservative Party, and has not surpassed the political party and has become an early election. But there are also reports that four prime ministers have been replaced in six years, which has caused the Conservative Party to be filled with "despair".
Some senior MPs revealed that they believe that the possibility of the Conservatives winning the next election is very small, and the Conservatives' latest "game plot" is not to win the election, but to try to "limit losses." It is reported that the next national election in the UK will be held in 2024 and will be held at the latest in January 2025. In the foreseeable future, the behemoths in British politics are likely to continue fighting each other. Considering the current situation in the UK, this is undoubtedly bad news for the British people.
Li Hao also said that the political turmoil in the UK "may last until the next general election", but "it is hard to say for the degree of intensity." He believes that the difficulties faced by the UK are now in front of us, and dealing with these problems requires some relatively important economic policies. Therefore, it is unlikely that the rapid adjustment will be in place, which will be a gradual and gradual adjustment process. As the Conservative Party begins to find a viable path, it will certainly need to be at the cost of a period of political shock.
"In this process, the Conservative Party will inevitably need to pay high time and social and economic costs. This time Trass' resignation is actually a step in the struggle and compromise within the party." He explained, "Of course, every time you fight and compromise in this more tragic way, the Conservative Party itself pays a relatively high political price."
However, he also pointed out that the current general environment poses certain challenges to the Conservative Party, but there are also certain favorable factors, especially the international situation is relatively severe. “After the rise in international and domestic security issues (attention), the Conservative Party has a special influence on these issues, and it has an advantage over Labor in this regard,” he explained.
↑After Tras leaves office, what is left is an economic crisis that caused the UK to evaporate $500 billion out of thin air
The British Prime Minister frequently changes
Will the frequent change of
trigger the butterfly effect ?
Li Hao said that this "political drama" in the UK will definitely have a blow to the Conservative Party's political prestige, but overall it is an "unreasonable and unexpected" event. In his opinion, this is the "failure of the British government's efforts to solve the problem once and for all".
The problems currently facing the UK also reflect the problems shared by European countries to a certain extent. Although the UK has already left the EU, both in the political system, the stage of socio-economic development, and the many challenges it faces are similar to those of European countries. "This series of contradictions gather in a short period of time, so any country feels pressure, but the different political systems and actual situations of each country may show different stages and methods." Li Hao said.
If you look at the world, from a policy perspective, the "chaotic" in the British political arena will definitely be "not very beneficial" to deal with a series of urgent international affairs. He said that although the British political system is still stable, the government as a policymaker and executor is not stable, and the response to many major international affairs is relatively urgent and there are high expectations for the stability of national policies.
"Whether it is the inflation problem that the world needs to work hard to solve, the global economic slowdown, and a series of major problems such as regional security issues and climate issues are relatively urgent. Governments, especially governments like the UK, can maintain the relative stability of policies." Li Hao said, "But now the frequent changes of governments (British) will definitely have a certain impact on these (solving problems) and expectations of other countries."
Red Star News reporter Xu Yan
Editor Deng Xiaoguang Editor Xiao Ziqi
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