At present, the rebound of A shares is similar to the big rebound at the end of April. Both of them have four positive lines started to pull back, which may be because of the learning effect. The floating profit market accumulated in the early stage has begun to cash out, and the selling pressure has increased, and there is a demand for a technical pullback.
However, can this round of rebound really become a big rebound in May and June? There is still a question mark.
We mentioned two days ago that there are similarities and differences between A-shares and April: the similarity is that, whether from the valuation point of view or from the risk premium , A-shares fell to the bottom range of high cost performance. And they all went through the stage of killing financing. The private equity position and the two markets financing balance both fell near April. The unstable chips were basically washed out of the car, and the chip structure was relatively healthy.
The difference is that in April, just after the impact of the epidemic on the economy, and after a large number of policies to stabilize growth were introduced, the domestic macroeconomic will at least have a short-term strong recovery, and the economy will have great short-term elasticity. However, at present, consumption and real estate are still sluggish, exports may peak, and the economic recovery is relatively weak. Secondly, the current global financial market is still facing the suppression of the strong US dollar. The RMB exchange rate of is depreciating greatly. Foreign capital has not resumed inflows, and domestic and foreign capital cannot resonate.
The rebound of A-shares this week, in fact, northbound funds have been selling, and it is entirely because domestic investors are longing in . In the first two trading days, northbound funds had net outflows of 4.425 billion and 3.757 billion respectively. Today, foreign capital spent 6 billion, Hong Kong stock plummeted, Hang Seng Technology Index fell by more than 4%, and A-shares also plunged .
We looked at it. Today, the dollar index strengthened again during the session, and the US 10 bond yield stood above 4.06%, suppressing global stock markets. US stock Nasdaq futures also plunged.
At the same time, non-US currencies are also weakening, the US dollar against the Japanese yen is approaching 150, and the offshore RMB exchange rate falls below 7.24, approaching the previous low. The strengthening of the US dollar index today may be related to the weakening of the pound and euros.
This can explain the foreign capital was sold today, but it cannot explain why foreign capital sold continuously this week. If we extend the deadline, we can find that in the past seven trading days, foreign capital has inflowed in only one day and outflows in six days. The continued selling of foreign capital has also led to the continued weakening of , the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and the outflow of foreign capital should be related to the depreciation of the RMB and the expectations of internal economic recovery.
finally briefly look at the downward trend. As of the closing, Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.86%. The turnover of in the two markets shrinks to 0.75 trillion, and the entire market exceeded nearly 3,800 stocks fell.
Here is a mention of Hong Kong stocks. On October 19, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Jiachao, said in his first policy address after taking office that he would take six measures to comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's financial services.
One of them is to fully implement a series of interconnection arrangements announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission earlier, including submitting a draft bill within this year, exempting the stock trading stamp duty of the dual-currency stock market dealer transactions to optimize the RMB stock trading mechanism, and completing the preparations for the "Northbound" of the interest rate swap market interconnection between the two places as soon as possible.
Many investors are excited when they see stock stamp duty. Historically, stamp duty on A-shares reduced stock transactions has been soaring, but don’t forget to look at the qualifiers - transactions by market makers in the dual currency market may be stamp duty in the interconnected market, and they are made by market makers, and they have nothing to do with retail stamp duty.
risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently.
