We know that chips have become a must-fight place for military strategists, and the birth of chips has now moved towards manufacturing. At this time, because TSMC was the first to achieve mass production in the 7-nanometer process, it has been in the leading position in advanced processes since 2018. This has also led to TSMC gaining many international customers, and directly prompted TSMC to successfully mass-produce 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer chips on a large scale in 2018 and the second quarter of 2020.
But for TSMC, this also poses huge risks, because advanced processes such as 7 nanometers and below, whether in technological research and development or preparation of a complete production line, astronomical costs need to be invested in advance. If sufficient equivalent orders cannot be obtained in time, TSMC will suffer heavy losses. Fortunately, at that time, Huawei and Apple were both the first and provided TSMC massive orders in time, so TSMC had a smooth journey on 7 nanometers and 5 nanometers.
Perhaps it was because it was too smooth that TSMC seemed a little dazed. We know that later TSMC could not continue to produce chips for Huawei, but TSMC stated that other customers' orders could replace Huawei. TSMC's revenue would not be lost, would TSMC really not be lost? It has to be said that two years after TSMC rejected Huawei, a dramatic thing happened. We believe that TSMC is regretting it.
Recently, the content of TSMC's conference call was announced. TSMC personally admitted that the mass production of its 3-nanometer process will be postponed for another 3 months. The most optimistic estimate can only achieve mass production at the end of this year, but this may really be just an optimistic estimate, because TSMC also admitted that from customers, TSMC has transferred its smartphone and HPC business to 5 nanometers. TSMC's advanced process customers are basically smartphone and HPC businesses. Therefore, if TSMC wants to mass-produce 3 nanometers by the end of the year, it is really only an optimistic estimate. The reason why TSMC's 3-nanometer process has not been mass-produced for a long time is that industry insiders believe that the key is the lack of competition. As we mentioned above, TSMC's most advanced technology is first adopted by Apple and Huawei. Even , Qualcomm, , has to be back-end. Now that Apple has no competitors, why spend several times more money to use 3 nanometers?
So we see that although Apple's A16 chip this year is called 4nm, it still uses a 5nm production line. N4 is an improved 5nm process. However, that's it. There are only two models in the iPhone 14 series that can be used. That is to say, Apple not only does not use 3nm, but not many 4nm. There is also the iPad Pro that Apple has just quietly launched. This sky-high tablet uses the latest M2 chip. Previously, the M2 chip was expected to use a 3nm process. After all, the highest price has reached nearly 20,000 yuan, but M2 still uses a 5nm process, which is useless even the so-called 4nm process.
In fact, the M2 chip is developed based on Apple's A15 chip, so we see that in the absence of competition, Apple began to "squeeze toothpaste", and the one who suffered losses was naturally TSMC. In fact, TSMC has also admitted that the 3-nanometer process has begun to dilute its gross profit margin, but the drama continues.
is not only 3 nanometers, but TSMC's 7-nanometer production line has also suffered a significant blow. It personally admitted that the utilization rate of the 7-nanometer production line will be reduced and will last for at least 3 quarters. As for how much utilization rate will be reduced, TSMC did not disclose, but judging from TSMC's cancellation of a 7-nanometer factory and the shutdown of 4 EUV lithography machines, the utilization rate has obviously been reduced a lot.
In view of this, analysts pointed out that it is really too realistic. These Meicon giants are completely "just looking at people to put on the dishes". On the contrary, TSMC seems too naive. They think that as long as they take the lead in realizing the mass production capabilities of the most advanced processes, there will be a steady stream of orders. However, they do not know that the reason why these Meicon customers use the most advanced processes is to gain stronger competitiveness in the market, but when there is no need for competition, the most advanced processes become a decoration.
According to the latest statistics from statistical agencies, in the third quarter of this year, Apple grew its share against the trend by 3%, making it the fastest-growing smartphone brand. The best result of our domestic brands is to maintain market share. For example, Xiaomi , such as OPPO and VIVO, the market share has declined, so facts are better than words. What reason does Apple have to use TSMC's 3nm?
However, for TSMC, the consequences are not only that. Losing revenue is small, and market position is the big thing. The reason why TSMC firmly sits firmly in the market for advanced technology was because it can take the lead in mass production, get the initiative of the time window, and win the initial large customers. However, the time window is now closed. Therefore, in the future, TSMC has no first-mover advantage in the most advanced technology. When to adopt it, it depends on the customer's "face". Moreover, TSMC will also compete with , Samsung , or even , Intel to win customers.
This has shown some clues. For example, Intel has recently begun to take the initiative and expressed its willingness to provide OEM services for US chip giants such as Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, and Nvidia. In fact, at the groundbreaking ceremony of Intel's factory in the United States, the CEOs of many US chip giants came to support the event. After Apple received a request from TSMC for price increases this year, it refused for the first time.
It is obvious that TSMC has become extremely passive at the 3-nanometer key node after rejecting Huawei for two years. Not only that, according to TSMC's financial report, its revenue in September has declined month-on-month, which shows that TSMC's revenue has begun to decline. Therefore, for TSMC, the nightmare may have just begun. If you think it is reasonable, thank you for giving it a thumbs up and reading it.
