Core attention and investment advice
Last week, the industry indexes with the highest increase in A shares were: vaccines, lithium battery negative electrodes, wind power generation , etc.
The industry trend changes worthy of attention in overseas markets last week and this week are:
, intelligent robot
Last year, at the first artificial intelligence day event held on August 19, 2021, Tesla introduced its AI-focused ambition in detail and announced the Tesla humanoid robot - Tesla Bot. On June 3 this year, Musk said on Twitter that the name of Tesla Bot has been changed to Optimus, and the 2022 Artificial Intelligence Day event will be postponed to September 30, when the "Optimus Prime" prototype will be launched. The core parameters of this robot were announced last year: it is 1.72m tall, weighs 57kg, load 20kg (5kg attached to the arm), and can move up to 8 km/h; there is a screen on the face that can display specific information; it has both hands with human activity level, and its limbs are controlled by 40 electromechanical actuators; the feet can sense feedback to achieve balance and agile movements. It is worth mentioning that the robot head will be equipped with the same intelligent driving camera as the Tesla car , with a built-in FSD chip, and share the AI system with the car.
Previously, Tesla had produced the catfish effect in the field of electric smart cars, leading the trend of the electric smart car industry in the past two years. Tesla's new trends in the field of intelligent robots are expected to drive new changes in the field of intelligent robots around the world.
, Advanced Process Chip Manufacturing
0 At the TSMC North America Technology Forum held in the early morning of June 17, TSMC (TSMC) officially announced the roadmap for future advanced process. Among them, TSMC's 3nm (N3) process will be mass-produced in 2022, while TSMC launches the 2nm (N2) process process using nanosheet transistor (GAAFET) architecture for the first time, which will be mass-produced in 2025. Specifically, at this TSMC Technology Summit, the core is to announce the specific technical details of the leading nodes of the N3 (3nm-class) and N2 (2nm-class) series, as well as the TSMC-3DFabricTM three-dimensional silicon crystal stacking solution, so as to be used to manufacture advanced CPU , GPU and mobile SoC chip products in the next few years. TSMC emphasized that under the same power consumption, the speed of 2 nanometers will increase by 10-15%; at the same speed, the power consumption will decrease by 25-30%.
The world is chasing 2nm process chip manufacturing. On June 15, the Nikkei Asia Review reported that Japan will cooperate with the United States to build a 2nm chip manufacturing base in Japan as early as 2025 to join the commercial competition of next-generation chip technology. According to Korean media Business Korea, Samsung Electronics has planned a 3nm surround gate (GAA) process technology for the next three years and is seeking to mass-produce the 2nm GAA process by 2025. According to the latest roadmap of Intel , Intel's Intel 20A (20 angstroms = 2nm) process will be unveiled in the first half of 2024, and the new node will bring a 15% performance improvement.
2nm chip will be used in quantum computers, data center high-performance computing chips and high-end smartphones, which is expected to bring a new round of industrial opportunities.
Investment advice: From a medium- and long-term perspective, we currently recommend paying attention to the rise of the entire industrial chain of carbon neutrality under the global attention ( photovoltaic , wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase in the penetration rate of electric smart cars under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, as well as industrial trends such as metaverse, intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing , and independent control.
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Global Observation: Overseas Market Tracking
, Global Major Asset Performance
Last week, global stock markets rose and fell. In terms of US stock , the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P fell 2.1%, 0.1%, and 2.0% respectively. In the past week, the market has focused on Fed interest rate meeting , US tariff statements on China, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In terms of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting decided to raise interest rates by 75bp to 1.5-1.75%. The latest dot chart shows that most Fed officials are expected to raise interest rates to 3.0-3.5% by the end of the year, to 3.5-4.0% by the end of 2023, and to decline in 2024 but still above 3%.The Federal Reserve also released the latest semi-annual monetary policy report, known as "the most hawkish wording to fight inflation so far", saying: "The FOMC Monetary Policy Committee is committed to restoring price stability - which is necessary to maintain a strong labor market - is unconditional." After the meeting, Powell said that a rate hike of 75bp or 50bp will be considered in July meeting, but the 75bp rate hike will not become normalized. In terms of US tariff statements on China, on June 14, US White House spokesman Pierre confirmed that Biden and his cabinet are currently conducting a judgment on the issue of reducing some tariffs on China to alleviate U.S. inflation. On June 18, US President Biden hinted in an interview with reporters that he is getting closer to making a decision on the relaxation of tariffs on China. Russia and Ukraine situation, 1) European natural gas waste: June 16 Russia said that due to "technical" reasons, it reduced the supply of natural gas from Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline. One of the most important exporters of liquefied natural gas in the United States, Freeport Natural Gas, a factory in Quintana Island, Texas, last Wednesday and caused production suspension. Together, the two caused European natural gas prices to soar 60% last week. ) Ukraine's entry into EU latest progress: June 17 EU Commission recommended giving Ukraine and Moldova EU candidate status, and EU member leaders are expected to discuss this issue at the summit next week.
European stock market falls more and rises less, FTSE 100, French CAC40, and German DAX fell 1.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, and the Italian index rose 0.3%. On June 16, the Bank of England released an interest rate resolution showing that the Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, raising the policy interest rate to 1.25%. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill hinted that policymakers may take unprecedented action to raise interest rates by 50 basis points if further evidence shows that high inflation is pushing up wages or prices. On June 26, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that once the borrowing costs of weaker countries rise too high or too fast, the European Central Bank will launch new tools to fight the crisis. If the bond spread extends to exceed a specific threshold, or market fluctuations exceed a specific speed, it may trigger the ECB to use new tools. Nikkei 225 index fell 4.5%. At the press conference after the interest rate resolution on June 17, Kuroda Haruhiko said that the 10-year treasury bond yield target was maintained at 0%, the nearby yield curve control (YCC) target did not change, there was no limit on maintaining loose policies, and no consideration was given to increase the upper limit of the 10-year treasury bond yield target. In terms of the depreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan did not set a specific exchange rate level target, and did not implement a monetary policy for foreign exchange.
Last week, Commodity fell more and more, crude oil fell more and precious metals rose more and more, industrial metals fell more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate fell by 18BP to 3.25%.
crude oil price fell, and Brent oil and WTI crude oil fell 6.9% and 7.9% respectively last week. precious metals rose generally last week, gold rose 0.6%, and silver rose 1.8%. industrial metals fell more than they rose, metal aluminum, metal copper and metal zinc fell 4.3%, 3.9%, and 2.4%, respectively, nickel metal rose 0.1%, and lead metal remained flat, as the central bank led by the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, exacerbating concerns about the possible potential recession of the global economy and weakening demand for industrial metals. agricultural products fell more and rose less, rice, soybeans and wheat fell 0.6%, 0.3%, and 3.5%, respectively, and ICE11 sugar rose 0.6%. 0-year U.S. bond yield fell by 18BP to 3.25%. The US dollar index fell 0.7% to 105, and the RMB appreciated by 0.71% against the US dollar. The current central price of the RMB against the US dollar is 6.69.
. Global stock market industry performance
Last week, global stock markets fell generally, sectors fell generally, energy sectors led the decline, and public utilities, materials and industrial sectors fell relatively largely.
Specifically, in terms of , the energy sector led the decline, while the public utilities and materials sectors fell relatively large. In terms of European stocks, the financial sector performed relatively well, while the materials, energy and industrial sectors performed relatively poorly. In terms of the UK stock market, financial and telecommunications services sectors performed relatively well, while the energy, materials and public utilities sectors performed relatively poorly. In the Japanese stock market, the sector generally fell, the energy sector led the decline, and the materials, information technology and industrial sectors fell relatively largely. Hong Kong stocks, health care and real estate sectors rose significantly, while the energy sector fell significantly. In terms of A shares, health care, daily consumption, real estate, and optional consumption sectors have increased significantly, while the energy sector has fallen significantly.
, Global Strong Stocks and Abnormal Stocks Brief Analysis
Among the companies with a market value of more than US$20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, there are more optional consumption and health care, and among the companies with a market value of more than US$20 billion that led the decline in the past week, there are more energy.
【Moderna】On June 15th local time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) unanimously voted that the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 has more benefits than risks for children under 6 months to 5 years old. It supports the FDA's approval of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 for children under 6 months to 5 years old, and expands the vaccination population of the COVID-19 vaccine to about 19 million infants and preschool children in the United States.
【Boeing 】On June 15, the company stated at a media briefing that it had delivered 29 737MAX to customers in May. According to the released data, Boeing's total delivery of 35 aircraft in May was more than double the 17 aircraft in the same period a year ago, thus bringing the total delivery of aircraft in the first five months of this year to 165. Boeing also delivered a 747 and three 777 cargo planes to Atlas Air, reflecting strong demand for cargo aircraft. In May, Boeing added 23 orders to , of which 17 were wide-body aircraft. Among them, Lufthansa ordered 7 787 and 7 777-8F cargo planes (the freight version of 777X).
[ FedEx ] Last Tuesday, FedEx announced that it would raise its quarterly dividend by more than 50% to $1.15 per share, and the dividend will be paid to registered shareholders as of June 27, 2022. D.E. Shaw also assigned two members to the FedEx Board of Directors as part of the partnership agreement with hedge fund D.E. Shaw. FedEx will also release its fourth-quarter financial report on June 23.
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Important information express
, Industrial Policy and News
(1) Tesla will launch Optimus robot at the 2022 Artificial Intelligence event at the 5th event of Artificial Intelligence Today, Musk posted another new tweet saying: "AI is getting better every day." This triggered speculation from the market. Last year, at the first Artificial Intelligence Day event held on August 19, 2021, Tesla detailed its AI-focused ambitions and announced the Tesla humanoid robot - Tesla Bot. On June 3 this year, Musk said on Twitter that the name of Tesla Bot has been changed to Optimus, and the 2022 Artificial Intelligence Day event will be postponed to September 30, when the "Optimus Prime" prototype will be launched. The core parameters of this robot were announced last year: it is 1.72m tall, weighs 57kg, load 20kg (5kg attached to the arm), and can move up to 8 km/h; there is a screen on the face that can display specific information; it has both hands with human activity level, and its limbs are controlled by 40 electromechanical actuators; the feet can sense feedback to achieve balance and agile movements. It is worth mentioning that the robot head will be equipped with the same smart driving camera as Tesla cars, built-in FSD chips, and share the AI system with the car. (2) TSMC launches the next generation advanced 2-nanometer (N2) process technology (☆☆☆) June 17, according to Taiwan United Daily News, TSMC held the 2022 North American Technology Forum, launching the next generation advanced 2-nanometer (N2) process technology using nanosheet transistors for the first time, and supporting the N3 and N3E processes, will become the first wafer factory in the world to take the lead in providing 2-nanometer process foundry services. TSMC emphasized that under the same power consumption, the speed of 2 nanometers will increase by 10-15%; at the same speed, the power consumption will decrease by 25-30%.In addition to the basic version of mobile computing, the 2nm technology platform also covers high-performance versions and complete chip integration solutions, and is expected to start mass production in 2025. (3) Many leading automotive chip manufacturers rushed to buy UDian production capacity (☆☆☆) On June 20, Infineon , NXP, Texas Instruments , Microchip and other automotive chip leaders recently proposed to UDian to increase the number of chips and proposed to "receive as much production capacity." UMC emphasized that the demand for automotive products is still very strong. Not only does this quarter’s capacity utilization rate exceed 100%, and there is still a supply shortage, but it is expected that supply and demand will continue to maintain this grand situation by the end of this year. Since automotive chips are mostly produced in mature processes, the demand for driver ICs and some simulated ICs has weakened recently, and a single wave has occurred, resulting in a gap in the production capacity of mature wafer foundry processes. Major automotive chip manufacturers around the world must not miss the opportunity and actively seize production capacity. (4) CEOs of well-known semiconductor companies jointly wrote a letter asking the United States to pass the chip bill (☆☆) Alphabet, Amazon , Dell , IBM, Microsoft , Salesforce, VMware , and dozens of other technology companies and companies adjacent to technology to urge the two houses of Congress to reach a consensus in a letter sent to leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives last Wednesday. They believe that passing this long-stagnant bill will make the United States more competitive with China and other countries. "The rest of the world will not wait for the U.S. to take action. Our global competitors are investing in their industries, workers and economies, and Congress must take action to improve U.S. competitiveness," the letter said. The association said it hopes that the final legislation will include an investment tax credit that semiconductor manufacturing and design companies can take advantage of, as well as a $52 billion chip subsidy at the heart of the bill. The U.S. Competitiveness Act was shelved in Congress for several months, which the House passed in February and the Senate passed in June 2021, but the Senate and the House have been trying to reconcile differences in their respective chip subsidy bills, with no results yet. (5) Ferrari announces electrification strategy: the total sales of pure electric and hybrid models in 2030 will reach 80% (☆☆) June 16, according to foreign media reports, Ferrari announced its electrification strategy at the 2022 Annual Investors Conference (Capital Markets Day). Under the strategy, Ferrari will launch its first all-electric model in 2025. The company expects that by 2025, pure electric models will account for 5% of Ferrari's total sales that year; by 2030, this proportion will increase to 40%. The sales share of hybrid models will rise from 20% in 2021 to 55%, and then drop to 40% in 2030. This means that by 2030, Ferrari's fuel models are expected to account for 20%, pure electric models are expected to account for 40%, and hybrid models are expected to account for 40%. Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna said Ferrari will assemble its own motor, inverter and battery pack at its factory in Maranello, Italy. To reduce the scale of investment, Ferrari will purchase non-critical hardware or software from suppliers. In addition, Ferrari will not develop a new operating system. Currently, Ferrari is working with four manufacturers from Europe or Asia to study the next generation of high-energy density solid-state battery . Benedetto Vigna also stated that in order to retain the ultimate driving experience for users, Ferrari will be equipped with L2/L2+ grade assisted driving functions in pure electric or hybrid models, but will not be equipped with L5 level automatic driving functions. (6) India will invest $30 billion in the technology industry and chip supply chain (☆) June 16, Indian diplomat Gourangalal Das recently said that India will spend $30 billion to comprehensively reform its technology industry and establish a chip supply chain. The main goal of India's $30 billion initiative is to build a complete supply chain ecosystem. About $10 billion of that will be spent on building two chip factories and two display factories. It plans to provide approximately US$7 billion to the electronics industry, including manufacturing giants such as Foxconn , and Pesau, which is also an iPhone assembler.The remaining $13 billion will be used for "ancillor services such as telecommunications, networks, solar photovoltaics, advanced chemistry and batteries." Das said India is seeking to introduce more mature chips, including those made using 65-nm to 28-nm production technology. (7) The Japanese government approved TSMC's plan to build a factory in Japan, and will provide subsidies of up to 476 billion yen (☆) The Japanese government announced on the 17th that in accordance with a relevant law encouraging the construction of semiconductor factories in Japan, TSMC and other companies have approved the construction plan of TSMC and other companies in Kumamoto Prefecture, and provide subsidies of up to 476 billion yen (about 24 billion yen) in accordance with a relevant law encouraging the construction of semiconductor factories in Japan. TSMC will cooperate with Sony Group and Japanese Denso Company , mainly for Japanese customers. Construction of TSMC's factory in Kumamoto, Japan, began earlier this year and is expected to be completed in September 2023 and supply products to the market in December 2024. It is reported that in the early stage, the factory will mainly provide 22nm and 28nm manufacturing processes, and find semiconductor chip for some related companies, and will subsequently add 12nm and 16nm chip foundry services. (8) MCU sales in 2021 increased by 27% year-on-year, reaching a record US$20.2 billion (☆) IC Insights' latest report points out that MCU application scenarios for embedded control and computing functions are extremely wide. New additions to MCUs are driven mainly by embedded automation and the popularity of sensors. MCU sales in 2021 increased by 27% year-on-year to a record $20.2 billion. In addition, it also announced the rankings of the top five MCU suppliers in 2021, namely NXP, STMicroelectronics , Infineon, Microchip Technology and Renesas Electronics , which together account for 82.1% of global MCU sales. , global emerging industry trends and key companies tracking
(Zhang Xia is the chief strategy analyst of China Merchants Securities)
